In this study, three simulations by the Mars Weather Research and Forecasting (MarsWRF) model are compared: two 10 Martian Year (MY) 2° × 2° simulations with (i) fully radiatively‐active dust and (ii) a prescribed dust scenario, and a (iii) 1 MY 0.5° × 0.5° simulation with prescribed dust as in (ii). From comparing (i) and (ii), we found that the impact of dust‐radiation feedback is individually different for any region. The most striking evidence are major dust lifting activities to the south of Chryse Planitia (S‐CP) seen in (i) but not in (ii). By contrast, dust lifting and deposition on the southern slopes and inside the Hellas Basin are similar in both simulations. The latter, in turn, points towards a similar near‐surface atmospheric circulation. In (iii), the total global amount of wind stress lifted dust is by a factor of ∼8 higher than in (ii), with S‐CP being a major lifting region as in (i). Nonetheless, the surface dust lifting by wind stress in (iii) may be also reduced regionally, as seen at the peak of Elysium Mons because of its unique topography. The zonal mean circulation in (i) is generally of a comparable strength to that in (ii), with exceptions in global dust storm years, when it is clearly stronger in (i), in line with a dustier atmosphere. The differences in the zonal mean circulation between (ii) and (iii) are mostly at lower altitudes, and may arise due to differences in the representation of the topography.

An accurate simulation of air temperature at local scales is crucial for the vast majority of weather and climate applications. In this work, a hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method and a high-resolution dynamical-only downscaling method are applied to daily mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures to investigate the quality of localscale estimates produced by downscaling. These two downscaling approaches are evaluated using station observation data obtained from the Finnish Meteorological Institute over a near-coastal region of western Finland. The dynamical downscaling is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the statistical downscaling method implemented is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform (CDF-t). The CDF-t is trained using 20 years of WRF-downscaled Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data over the region at a 3-km spatial resolution for the central month of each season. The performance of the two methods is assessed qualitatively, by inspection of quantile-quantile plots, and quantitatively, through the Cramer-von Mises, mean absolute error, and root-mean-square error diagnostics. The hybrid approach is found to provide significantly more skillful forecasts of the observed daily mean and maximum air temperatures than those of the dynamical-only downscaling (for all seasons). The hybrid method proves to be less computationally expensive, and also to give more skillful temperature forecasts (at least for the Finnish near-coastal region).

The MarsWRF model is set up with fully interactive dust at 5° × 5° and 2° × 2 resolution. The latter allows for a better representation of topography and other surface properties. An infinite reservoir of surface dust is assumed for both resolutions. For 5° × 5°, surface dust lifting by wind stress takes place over broad areas, occurring in about 20% of the model’s grid cells. For 2° × 2°, it is more spatially restricted, occurring in less than 5% of the grid cells, and somewhat reminiscent of the corridors Acidalia‐Chryse, Utopia‐Isidis, and Arcadia‐West of Tharsis. The onset times of major dust storms ‐ large regional storms or global dust storm events (GDEs) ‐ do not exhibit much inter‐annual variability, typically occurring at around L_s 260°. However, their magnitude does show significant inter‐annual variability ‐ with only small regional storms in some years, large regional storms in others, and some years with GDEs ‐ owing to the interaction between major dust lifting regions at low latitudes. The latter is consistent with observed GDEs having several active dust lifting centers. The model’s dust distribution is found to better agree with observation‐based albedo and dust cover index maps for the 2° × 2° run. For the latter, there is also significant surface dust lifting by wind stress in the aphelion season that is largely confined to the Hellas basin. It has a recurring time pattern of 2‐7 sols, possibly resulting from the interaction between mid‐latitude baroclinic systems and local downslope flows.

Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) simulate the Mars climate and atmosphere for many Martian Years (MYs). A challenge is to configure such models to produce Mars global dust storm events (GDEs) in few but not all MYs. That is because GDEs are known to occur once every few MYs, on average. We set up the MarsWRF MGCM in this way using “interactive dust,” meaning the model freely lifts, transports, and deposits surface dust (assuming an inexhaustible amount of available surface dust). We use different horizontal model grid point resolutions and compare their results in terms of dust storm source regions and changes in surface dust loading. For the high‐resolution experiment, we find that GDEs are likely to develop if regional dust storm activity around two equatorial source regions on the planet, namely, south of Chryse Planitia and in the northern Hellas basin, combine with one another. The latter is consistent with knowing from observations that GDEs have several active dust lifting centers. Also, we find that the model's surface dust distribution in the high‐resolution experiment agrees potentially better with observation‐based dust cover maps.

The seminal theory for the Hadley Cells has demonstrated that their existence is necessary for the reduction of tropical temperature gradients to a value such that the implied zonal winds are realisable. At the heart of the theory is the notion of angular momentum conservation in the upper branch of the Hadley Cells. Eddy mixing associated with extra‐tropical systems is invoked to give continuity at the edge of the Hadley Cell and to reduce the subtropical jet by a factor of 3 or more to those observed. In this paper a detailed view is presented of the dynamics of the June–August Hadley Cell, as given by ERA data for the period 1981–2010, with an emphasis on the dynamics of the upper branch. The steady and transient northward fluxes of angular momentum have a very similar structure, both having a maximum on the equator and a reversal in sign near 12°S, with the transient flux merging into that associated with eddies on the winter sub‐tropical jet. In the northward absolute vorticity flux, the Coriolis torque is balanced by both the steady and transient fluxes. The overturning circulations that average to give the Hadley Cell are confined to specific longitudinal regions, as are the steady and transient momentum fluxes. In these regions, both intra‐seasonal and synoptic variations are important. The dominant contributor to the Hadley Cell is from the Indian Ocean and W Pacific regions, and the maxima in OLR variability and meridional wind in these regions have a characteristic structure associated with the Westward‐moving Mixed Rossby‐Gravity wave. Much of the upper tropospheric motion into the winter hemisphere occurs in filaments of air from the summer equatorial region. These filaments can reach the winter sub‐tropical jet, leading to the strengthening of it and of the eddies on it, implying strong tropical‐extratropical interaction.

Good knowledge of the environmental conditions of deserts on Earth is relevant forclimate studies. The Atacama Desert is of particular interest as it is considered tobe the driest region on Earth. We have performed simulations using the WeatherResearch and Forecasting (WRF) model over the Atacama Desert for two week-longperiods in the austral winter season coincident with surface temperature and relativehumidity in-situ observations at three sites. We found that the WRF model generallyoverestimates the daytime surface temperature, with biases of up to 11◦C, despitegiving a good simulation of the relative humidity. In order to improve the agree-ment with observed measurements, we conducted sensitivity experiments in whichthe surface albedo, soil moisture content and five tuneable parameters in the NoahLand Surface Model (namely soil porosity, soil suction, saturated soil hydraulic con-ductivity, thebparameter used in hydraulic functions and the quartz fraction) areperturbed. We concluded that an accurate simulation is not possible, most likelybecause the Noah Land Surface Model does not have a groundwater table that maybe shallow in desert regions. The WRF-predicted land surface temperature is alsoevaluated against that estimated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (MODIS) instrument. While at night the satellite-derived and ground-basedmeasurements are generally in agreement, during the day MODIS estimates aretypically lower by as much as 17◦C. This is attributed to the large uncertainty inthe MODIS-estimated land surface temperatures in arid and semi-arid regions. Thefindings of this work highlight the need for ground-based observational networksin remote regions such as the Atacama Desert where satellite-derived and modelproducts may not be very accurate.

Here we inspect whether microbial life may disperse using dust transported by wind in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile, a well-known Mars analog model. By setting a simple experiment across the hyperarid core of the Atacama we found that a number of viable bacteria and fungi are in fact able to traverse the driest and most UV irradiated desert on Earth unscathed using wind-transported dust, particularly in the later afternoon hours. This finding suggests that microbial life on Mars, extant or past, may have similarly benefited from aeolian transport to move across the planet and find suitable habitats to thrive and evolve.

In this paper we use the Mars implementation of the Planet Weather Research and Forecasting model, MarsWRF, to simulate the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) vertical profiles from six past missions: Pathfinder, Mars Exploration Rovers Opportunity and Spirit, Phoenix, Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover and ExoMars 2016 (Schiaparelli), and compare the results with observed data. In order to investigate the sensitivity of the model predictions to the atmospheric dust distribution, MarsWRF is run with two prescribed dust scenarios. It is concluded that the MarsWRF EDL predictions can be used for guidance into the design and planning stage of future missions to the planet, as it generally captures the observed EDL profiles, although it has a tendency to underestimate the temperature and overestimate the density for heights above 15 km. This could be attributed to an incorrect representation of the observed dust loading. We have used the model to predict the EDL conditions that may be encountered by two future missions: ExoMars 2020 and Mars 2020. When run for Oxia Planum and Jezero Crater for the expected landing time, MarsWRF predicts a large sensitivity to the dust loading in particular for the horizontal wind speed above 10‐15 km with maximum differences of up to ±30 m s‐1 for the former and ±15 m s‐1 for the latter site. For both sites, the best time for EDL, i.e. when the wind speed is generally the weakest with smaller shifts in direction, is predicted to be in the late morning and early afternoon.

A methodology to couple Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) models for wind resource assessment applications is proposed. NWP simulations are averaged according to their atmospheric stability and wind direction. The averaged NWP simulations are used to generate the initial and boundary conditions of the CFD model. The method is applied using one year of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations at the Honkajoki wind farm in Finland and validated by Sonic Detection and Ranging (SODAR) measurements at the site. It is shown that coupled simulations reproduce a more realistic shear for heights above 150 m. In terms of estimated energy production, there is not a big difference between coupled and standalone models. Nevertheless, a considerable difference in the horizontal wind speed patterns can be seen between the coupled and non-coupled approaches. The WRF model resolution has only a small influence on the coupled CFD results.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale 27 years of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) in a tropical belt configuration at 36 km horizontal grid spacing. WRF is found to give a good rainfall climatology as observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and to reproduce well the large-scale circulation and surface radiation fluxes. The impact of conventional and Modoki-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are confirmed by linear regression. Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Boreal Summer Intra-seasonal Oscillation (BSISO) are also well-simulated. The WRF simulation shows that conventional El Niño increases (La Niña decreases) the MJO amplitude in the boreal summer while Modoki-type ENSO and IOD impacts are MJO-phase dependent. While WRF is found to perform well on seasonal to sub-seasonal timescales, it does not capture well the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Maritime Continent. For the investigation of multi-scale interactions through the local diurnal cycle, TRMM data is used instead. In the Maritime Continent, moderate El Niño and La Niña causes anti-symmetric enhancement/reduction of the MJO’s influence on the diurnal cycle amplitudes with little change in the diurnal phase. Non-linear impacts on the diurnal amplitude with changes in diurnal phase manifest during strong ENSO. Given that the simulation does not employ data assimilation, this modified version of WRF submitted to the model developers is a suitable downscaling tool of CFSR for sub-seasonal to seasonal tropical atmospheric research.

Estimates of the uncertainty of model output fields (e.g., 2-m temperature, surface radiation fluxes, or wind speed) are of great value to the weather and climate communities. The traditional approach for the uncertainty estimation is to conduct an ensemble of simulations where the model configuration is perturbed and/or different models are considered. This procedure is very computationally expensive and may not be feasible, in particular for higher-resolution experiments. In this paper, a new method based on Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs) that requires just one model run is proposed. It is applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model’s 2-m temperature in the Botnia–Atlantica region in Scandinavia for a 10-day period in the winter and summer seasons. For both seasons, the estimated uncertainty using the BHM is found to be comparable to that obtained from an ensemble of experiments in which different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes are employed. While WRF-BHM is not capable of generating the full set of products obtained from an ensemble of simulations, it can be used to extract commonly used diagnostics including the uncertainty estimation that is the focus of this work. The methodology proposed here is fully general and can easily be extended to any other output variable and numerical model.