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Publications (7 of 7) Show all publications
Fonseca, R., Zorzano Mier, M.-P., Azu-Bustos, A., González-Silva, C. & Martin-Torres, J. (2019). A surface temperature and moisture intercomparison study of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, in‐situ measurements and satellite observations over the Atacama Desert. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145(722), 2202-2220
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A surface temperature and moisture intercomparison study of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, in‐situ measurements and satellite observations over the Atacama Desert
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2019 (English)In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, ISSN 0035-9009, E-ISSN 1477-870X, Vol. 145, no 722, p. 2202-2220Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Good knowledge of the environmental conditions of deserts on Earth is relevant forclimate studies. The Atacama Desert is of particular interest as it is considered tobe the driest region on Earth. We have performed simulations using the WeatherResearch and Forecasting (WRF) model over the Atacama Desert for two week-longperiods in the austral winter season coincident with surface temperature and relativehumidity in-situ observations at three sites. We found that the WRF model generallyoverestimates the daytime surface temperature, with biases of up to 11◦C, despitegiving a good simulation of the relative humidity. In order to improve the agree-ment with observed measurements, we conducted sensitivity experiments in whichthe surface albedo, soil moisture content and five tuneable parameters in the NoahLand Surface Model (namely soil porosity, soil suction, saturated soil hydraulic con-ductivity, thebparameter used in hydraulic functions and the quartz fraction) areperturbed. We concluded that an accurate simulation is not possible, most likelybecause the Noah Land Surface Model does not have a groundwater table that maybe shallow in desert regions. The WRF-predicted land surface temperature is alsoevaluated against that estimated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (MODIS) instrument. While at night the satellite-derived and ground-basedmeasurements are generally in agreement, during the day MODIS estimates aretypically lower by as much as 17◦C. This is attributed to the large uncertainty inthe MODIS-estimated land surface temperatures in arid and semi-arid regions. Thefindings of this work highlight the need for ground-based observational networksin remote regions such as the Atacama Desert where satellite-derived and modelproducts may not be very accurate.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2019
National Category
Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Atmospheric science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-74607 (URN)10.1002/qj.3553 (DOI)2-s2.0-85066103855 (Scopus ID)
Note

Validerad;2019;Nivå 2;2019-08-14 (johcin)

Available from: 2019-06-17 Created: 2019-06-17 Last updated: 2019-08-14Bibliographically approved
Fonseca, R. M., Zorzano Mier, M.-P. & Martin-Torres, J. (2019). MARSWRF Prediction of Entry Descent Landing Profiles: Applications to Mars Exploration. Earth and Space Science
Open this publication in new window or tab >>MARSWRF Prediction of Entry Descent Landing Profiles: Applications to Mars Exploration
2019 (English)In: Earth and Space Science, E-ISSN 2333-5084Article in journal (Refereed) Accepted
Abstract [en]

In this paper we use the Mars implementation of the Planet Weather Research and Forecasting model, MarsWRF, to simulate the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) vertical profiles from six past missions: Pathfinder, Mars Exploration Rovers Opportunity and SpiritPhoenix, Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover and ExoMars 2016 (Schiaparelli), and compare the results with observed data. In order to investigate the sensitivity of the model predictions to the atmospheric dust distribution, MarsWRF is run with two prescribed dust scenarios. It is concluded that the MarsWRF EDL predictions can be used for guidance into the design and planning stage of future missions to the planet, as it generally captures the observed EDL profiles, although it has a tendency to underestimate the temperature and overestimate the density for heights above 15 km. This could be attributed to an incorrect representation of the observed dust loading. We have used the model to predict the EDL conditions that may be encountered by two future missions: ExoMars 2020 and Mars 2020. When run for Oxia Planum and Jezero Crater for the expected landing time, MarsWRF predicts a large sensitivity to the dust loading in particular for the horizontal wind speed above 10‐15 km with maximum differences of up to ±30 m s‐1 for the former and ±15 m s‐1 for the latter site. For both sites, the best time for EDL, i.e. when the wind speed is generally the weakest with smaller shifts in direction, is predicted to be in the late morning and early afternoon.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley & Sons, 2019
Keywords
Mars, Atmosphere, EDL, MarsWRF, ExoMars, Mars 2020
National Category
Astronomy, Astrophysics and Cosmology Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Atmospheric science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-75440 (URN)10.1029/2019EA000575 (DOI)
Available from: 2019-08-08 Created: 2019-08-08 Last updated: 2019-08-14
Fonseca, R., Koh, T.-Y. & Teo, C.-K. (2019). Multi-scale interactions in a high-resolution tropical-belt experiment and observations. Climate Dynamics, 52(5-6), 3503-3532
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Multi-scale interactions in a high-resolution tropical-belt experiment and observations
2019 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 52, no 5-6, p. 3503-3532Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale 27 years of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) in a tropical belt configuration at 36 km horizontal grid spacing. WRF is found to give a good rainfall climatology as observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and to reproduce well the large-scale circulation and surface radiation fluxes. The impact of conventional and Modoki-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are confirmed by linear regression. Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Boreal Summer Intra-seasonal Oscillation (BSISO) are also well-simulated. The WRF simulation shows that conventional El Niño increases (La Niña decreases) the MJO amplitude in the boreal summer while Modoki-type ENSO and IOD impacts are MJO-phase dependent. While WRF is found to perform well on seasonal to sub-seasonal timescales, it does not capture well the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Maritime Continent. For the investigation of multi-scale interactions through the local diurnal cycle, TRMM data is used instead. In the Maritime Continent, moderate El Niño and La Niña causes anti-symmetric enhancement/reduction of the MJO’s influence on the diurnal cycle amplitudes with little change in the diurnal phase. Non-linear impacts on the diurnal amplitude with changes in diurnal phase manifest during strong ENSO. Given that the simulation does not employ data assimilation, this modified version of WRF submitted to the model developers is a suitable downscaling tool of CFSR for sub-seasonal to seasonal tropical atmospheric research.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2019
National Category
Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Atmospheric science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-70077 (URN)10.1007/s00382-018-4332-y (DOI)2-s2.0-85049598730 (Scopus ID)
Note

Validerad;2019;Nivå 2;2019-04-12 (johcin)

Available from: 2018-07-05 Created: 2018-07-05 Last updated: 2019-04-12Bibliographically approved
Wang, J., Fonseca, R., Rutledge, K., Martin-Torres, J. & Yu, J. (2019). Weather Simulation Uncertainty Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 58(3), 585-603
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Weather Simulation Uncertainty Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Models
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2019 (English)In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, ISSN 1558-8424, E-ISSN 1558-8432, Vol. 58, no 3, p. 585-603Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Estimates of the uncertainty of model output fields (e.g., 2-m temperature, surface radiation fluxes, or wind speed) are of great value to the weather and climate communities. The traditional approach for the uncertainty estimation is to conduct an ensemble of simulations where the model configuration is perturbed and/or different models are considered. This procedure is very computationally expensive and may not be feasible, in particular for higher-resolution experiments. In this paper, a new method based on Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs) that requires just one model run is proposed. It is applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model’s 2-m temperature in the Botnia–Atlantica region in Scandinavia for a 10-day period in the winter and summer seasons. For both seasons, the estimated uncertainty using the BHM is found to be comparable to that obtained from an ensemble of experiments in which different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes are employed. While WRF-BHM is not capable of generating the full set of products obtained from an ensemble of simulations, it can be used to extract commonly used diagnostics including the uncertainty estimation that is the focus of this work. The methodology proposed here is fully general and can easily be extended to any other output variable and numerical model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Meteorological Society, 2019
National Category
Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Atmospheric science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-73613 (URN)10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0018.1 (DOI)000460652900002 ()2-s2.0-85067338933 (Scopus ID)
Note

Validerad;2019;Nivå 2;2019-04-12 (johcin)

Available from: 2019-04-12 Created: 2019-04-12 Last updated: 2019-07-01Bibliographically approved
Fonseca, R., Zorzano Mier, M.-P. & Martín-Torres, J. (2018). Planetary Boundary Layer and Circulation Dynamics at Gale Crater, Mars. Icarus (New York, N.Y. 1962), 302, 537-559
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Planetary Boundary Layer and Circulation Dynamics at Gale Crater, Mars
2018 (English)In: Icarus (New York, N.Y. 1962), ISSN 0019-1035, E-ISSN 1090-2643, Vol. 302, p. 537-559Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Mars implementation of the Planet Weather Research and Forecasting (PlanetWRF) model, MarsWRF, is used here to simulate the atmospheric conditions at Gale Crater for different seasons during a period coincident with the Curiosity rover operations. The model is first evaluated with the existing single-point observations from the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS), and is then used to provide a larger scale interpretation of these unique measurements as well as to give complementary information where there are gaps in the measurements.

The variability of the planetary boundary layer depth may be a driver of the changes in the local dust and trace gas content within the crater. Our results show that the average time when the PBL height is deeper than the crater rim increases and decreases with the same rate and pattern as Curiosity's observations of the line-of-sight of dust within the crater and that the season when maximal (minimal) mixing is produced is Ls 225°-315° (Ls 90°-110°). Thus the diurnal and seasonal variability of the PBL depth seems to be the driver of the changes in the local dust content within the crater. A comparison with the available methane measurements suggests that changes in the PBL depth may also be one of the factors that accounts for the observed variability, with the model results pointing towards a local source to the north of the MSL site.

The interaction between regional and local flows at Gale crater is also investigated assuming that the meridional wind, the dynamically important component of the horizontal wind at Gale, anomalies with respect to the daily mean can be approximated by a sinusoidal function as they typically oscillate between positive (south to north) and negative (north to south) values that correspond to upslope/downslope or downslope/upslope regimes along the crater rim and Mount Sharp slopes and the dichotomy boundary. The smallest magnitudes are found in the northern crater floor in a region that comprises Bradbury Landing, in particular at Ls 90° when they are less than 1 m s−1, indicating very little lateral mixing with outside air. The largest amplitudes occur in the south-western portions of the crater where they can exceed 20 m s−1. Should the slope flows along the crater rims interact with the dichotomy boundary flow, which is more likely at Ls 270° and very unlikely at Ls 90°, they are likely to interact constructively for a few hours from late evening to nighttime (∼17-23 LMST) and from pre-dawn early morning (∼5-11 LMST) hours at the norther crater rim and destructively at night (∼22-23 LMST) and in the morning (∼10-11 LMST) at the southern crater rim.

We conclude that a better understanding of the PBL and circulation dynamics has important implications for the variability of the concentration of dust, non-condensable and trace gases at the bottom of other craters on Mars as mixing with outside air can be achieved vertically, through changes in the PBL depth, and laterally, by the transport of air into and out of the crater.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2018
National Category
Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Atmospheric science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-67009 (URN)10.1016/j.icarus.2017.11.036 (DOI)000423779600038 ()2-s2.0-85037838111 (Scopus ID)
Note

Validerad;2018;Nivå 2;2017-12-21 (andbra)

Available from: 2017-12-14 Created: 2017-12-14 Last updated: 2018-06-13Bibliographically approved
Fonseca, R., Martin-Torres, J. & Andersson, K. (2018). Wind Forecasts for Rocket and Balloon Launches at the Esrange Space Center Using the WRF Model. Weather and forecasting, 33(3), 813-833
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Wind Forecasts for Rocket and Balloon Launches at the Esrange Space Center Using the WRF Model
2018 (English)In: Weather and forecasting, ISSN 0882-8156, E-ISSN 1520-0434, Vol. 33, no 3, p. 813-833Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

High-altitude balloons and rockets are regularly launched at the Esrange Space Center (ESC) in Kiruna, Sweden, with the aim of retrieving atmospheric data for meteorological and space studies in the Arctic region. Meteorological conditions, particularly wind direction and speed, play a critical role in the decision of whether to go ahead with or postpone a planned launch. Given the lack of high-resolution wind forecasts for this remote region, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to downscale short-term forecasts given by the Global Forecast System (GFS) for the ESC for six 5-day periods in the warm, cold, and transition seasons. Three planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes are considered: the local Mellor-Yamada-Janjic' (MYJ), the nonlocal Yonsei University (YSU), and the hybrid local-nonlocal Asymmetric Convective Model 2 (ACM2). The ACM2 scheme is found to provide the most skillful forecasts. An analysis of the WRF Model output against the launch criteria for two of the most commonly launched vehicles, the sounding rockets Veículo de Sondagem Booster-30 (VSB-30) and Improved Orion, reveals probability of detection (POD) values that always exceeds 60% with the false alarm rate (FAR) generally below 50%. It is concluded that the WRF Model, in its present configuration, can be used to generate useful 5-day wind forecasts for the launches of these two rockets. The conclusions reached here are applicable to similar sites in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Meteorological Society, 2018
National Category
Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Atmospheric science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-69940 (URN)10.1175/WAF-D-18-0031.1 (DOI)000437098000001 ()2-s2.0-85048660164& (Scopus ID)
Note

Validerad;2018;Nivå 2;2018-06-27 (andbra)

Available from: 2018-06-27 Created: 2018-06-27 Last updated: 2018-08-10Bibliographically approved
Bhardwaj, A., Sam, L., Martin-Torres, J., Zorzano Mier, M.-P. & Fonseca, R. (2017). Martian slope streaks as plausible indicators of transient water activity. Scientific Reports, 7(1), Article ID 7074.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Martian slope streaks as plausible indicators of transient water activity
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2017 (English)In: Scientific Reports, ISSN 2045-2322, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 7, no 1, article id 7074Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Slope streaks have been frequently observed in the equatorial, low thermal inertia and dusty regions of Mars. The reason behind their formation remains unclear with proposed hypotheses for both dry and wet mechanisms. Here, we report an up-to-date distribution and morphometric investigation of Martian slope streaks. We find: (i) a remarkable coexistence of the slope streak distribution with the regions on Mars with high abundances of water-equivalent hydrogen, chlorine, and iron; (ii) favourable thermodynamic conditions for transient deliquescence and brine development in the slope streak regions; (iii) a significant concurrence of slope streak distribution with the regions of enhanced atmospheric water vapour concentration, thus suggestive of a present-day regolith-atmosphere water cycle; and (iv) terrain preferences and flow patterns supporting a wet mechanism for slope streaks. These results suggest a strong local regolith-atmosphere water coupling in the slope streak regions that leads to the formation of these fluidised features. Our conclusions can have profound astrobiological, habitability, environmental, and planetary protection implications

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Nature Publishing Group, 2017
National Category
Other Physics Topics Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Atmospheric science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-64991 (URN)10.1038/s41598-017-07453-9 (DOI)000406764200106 ()28765566 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85026747795 (Scopus ID)
Note

Validerad;2017;Nivå 2;2017-08-15 (andbra)

Available from: 2017-08-10 Created: 2017-08-10 Last updated: 2018-07-10Bibliographically approved
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Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-8562-7368

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