Since the 1950s all through the 1670s there has been a considerable economic growth of the least developed and devolving countries nowadays. The world will certainly demand more raw materials to sustain this growth, and therefore their supply will need proper adjustments to keep the material market stable. The possibility of supply shortage has been a growing agenda of developed countries (i.e., the member states of the EU). This article discussed the case of cobalt, by using the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources and Volkswagen (BGR-VW) method to analyze historical developments, with the primary goal of the identification and thus quantification of long term supply risks. This study examined past scenarios that shifted the demand and supply behavior of the cobalt market. Several indicators were calculated and classified according to their potential effect on the supply risk of cobalt. By using the assessment presented in this article, industries and other parties with interests in the cobalt market can more accurately judge the future and current risks in the demand and supply of cobalt.