Global Solar Radiation Prediction Using Hybrid Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine ModelShow others and affiliations
2018 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 11, no 12, article id 3415Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Accurate global solar radiation prediction is highly essential for related research on renewable energy sources. The cost implication and measurement expertise of global solar radiation
emphasize that intelligence prediction models need to be applied. On the basis of long-term measured daily solar radiation data, this study uses a novel regularized online sequential extreme learning machine, integrated with variable forgetting factor (FOS-ELM), to predict global solar radiation at Bur Dedougou, in the Burkina Faso region. Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) is applied to build the seven input combinations based on speed (Wspeed), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), maximum and minimum humidity (Hmax and Hmin), evaporation (Eo) and vapor pressure deficiency (VPD). For the difference input parameters magnitudes, seven models were developed and evaluated for the optimal input combination. Various statistical indicators were computed for the prediction accuracy examination. The experimental results of the applied FOS-ELM model demonstrated a reliable prediction accuracy against the classical extreme learning machine (ELM) model for daily global solar radiation simulation. In fact, compared to classical ELM, the FOS-ELM model reported an enhancement in the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) by (68.8–79.8%). In summary, the results clearly confirm the effectiveness of the FOS-ELM model, owing to the fixed internal tuning parameters.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2018. Vol. 11, no 12, article id 3415
Keywords [en]
global solar radiation, FOS-ELM model, input optimization, West Africa region, energy harvesting
National Category
Engineering and Technology Geotechnical Engineering
Research subject
Soil Mechanics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-71948DOI: 10.3390/en11123415ISI: 000455358300176Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85059265881OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-71948DiVA, id: diva2:1268743
Note
Validerad;2019;Nivå 2;2018-12-07 (svasva)
2018-12-062018-12-062023-09-05Bibliographically approved