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Uncertainty Quantification of Aerodynamic Icing Losses in Wind Turbine With Polynomial Chaos Expansion
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Fluid and Experimental Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6025-2280
Hydraulic Machinery Research Institute, School of Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Fluid and Experimental Mechanics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7599-0895
2019 (English)In: Journal of energy resources technology, ISSN 0195-0738, E-ISSN 1528-8994, Vol. 141, no 5, article id 051210Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Icing of wind turbine blades poses a challenge for the wind power industry in cold cli-mate wind farms. It can lead to production losses of more than 10%of the annual energyproduction. Knowledge of how the production is affected by icing is of importance. Com-plicating this reality is the fact that even a small amount of uncertainty in the shape ofthe accreted ice may result in a large amount of uncertainty in the aerodynamic perform-ance metrics. This paper presents a numerical approach using the technique of polyno-mial chaos expansion (PCE) to quantify icing uncertainty faster than traditionalmethods. Time-dependent bi-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes computa-tional fluid dynamics (RANS-CFD) simulations are considered to evaluate the aerody-namic characteristics at the chosen sample points. The boundary conditions are based onthree-dimensional simulations of the rotor. This approach is applied to the NREL 5 MWreference wind turbine allowing to estimate the power loss range due to the leading-edgeglaze ice, considering a radial section near the tip. The probability distribution functionof the power loss is also assessed. The results of the section are nondimensionalized andassumed valid for the other radial sections. A correlation is found allowing to model theload loss with respect to the glaze ice horn height, as well as the corresponding probabil-ity distribution. Considering an equal chance for any of the ice profiles, load loss is esti-mated to be lower than 6.5%for the entire blade in half of the icing cases, while it couldbe roughly 4–6 times in the most severe icings.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York: ASME , 2019. Vol. 141, no 5, article id 051210
National Category
Fluid Mechanics and Acoustics
Research subject
Fluid Mechanics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-73729DOI: 10.1115/1.4042732ISI: 000464161100011Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85063903323OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-73729DiVA, id: diva2:1306435
Note

Validerad;2019;Nivå 2;2019-05-03 (johcin)

Available from: 2019-04-23 Created: 2019-04-23 Last updated: 2020-04-22Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Impact of Icing on Wind Turbines Aerodynamic
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact of Icing on Wind Turbines Aerodynamic
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[sv]
Påverkan av isbildning på vindkraftverk aerodynamik
Abstract [en]

Wind energy covered 11.6% of Europe electricity demand in 2017. Region with cold climates represent a strong potential for wind energy companies because of their sparse population and proper wind conditions. The global wind energy installations in cold climate regions is forecasted to reach a capacity of 186 GW by the end of 2020. But wind turbines installed in cold climate regions are prone to the risks of ice accumulation which affects their aerodynamics behavior, as well as the safety, and structural loads.

The aerodynamic forces on wind turbine can be affected in two main ways: ice accretion changes the blade profile, and thus the flow path curvature, and the surface roughness. The importance of these two parameters depend on the ice type. The target ice type for this thesis is the smooth leading-edge glaze ice with horn shape. The aerodynamic consequences of the blade profile change because of the mentioned ice type are studied in detail. 

The findings of this thesis are classified in five main sections. The first section considers the methodology to model the performance of a wind turbine. The wake behind the turbine is also explored. Different aspects of the simulation methods with computational fluid dynamics using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are investigated in both steady state and transient. In the second section, the time-dependent effects of icing are studied, exploring the moving vortices created by the irregularity of the ice and their frequencies and amplitudes. The main frequency modes of the flow dynamics were analyzed. In the third section, three-dimensional simulation of icing is implemented and the fluid flow arrangement through the rotor is investigated. Two well-recognized approaches are applied and compared, which are Blade Element Momentum (BEM) and CFD. An automated setup is programmed and launched to implement multiple CFD simulations to provide the aerodynamic data for structural analysis in the fourth section. The developed methodology is illustrated on a large-scale wind turbine. In section five, the effects of the uncertain level of ice-accretion is studied through an uncertainty quantification method. The aerodynamic losses are statistically discussed. Then, a scenario study is conducted according to the obtained polynomial chaos expansion, in which the probability distribution of wind power loss due to icing is inspected.

The achievements of this thesis can be used in to design of a wind turbine which is supposed to work in a cold climate, as well as assess the economics of a predesigned wind turbine working in a cold region.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2018
Series
Doctoral thesis / Luleå University of Technology 1 jan 1997 → …, ISSN 1402-1544
National Category
Energy Engineering Applied Mechanics Fluid Mechanics and Acoustics
Research subject
Fluid Mechanics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-71186 (URN)978-91-7790-228-7 (ISBN)978-91-7790-229-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2018-12-06, E231, Luleå, Luleå, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2018-10-15 Created: 2018-10-12 Last updated: 2020-04-22Bibliographically approved

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Tabatabaei, NargesCervantes, Michel

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