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Back Analysis of Short-Term Seismic Hazard Indicators of Larger Seismic Events in Deep Underground Mines (LKAB, Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden)
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Mining and Geotechnical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8134-2747
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Mining and Geotechnical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9419-2207
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Mining and Geotechnical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9766-0106
2020 (English)In: Pure and Applied Geophysics, ISSN 0033-4553, E-ISSN 1420-9136, Vol. 177, no 2, p. 763-785Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Back analysis for evaluation of the merits of the short-term seismic hazard indicators (precursors) used in the mines and their potential application for early warning was carried out for fourteen seismic events that potentially caused damage in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden, selected according to our designed criteria. Five short-term hazard indicators: Seismic Activity Rate (SAR), Cumulative Seismic Moment (CSM), Energy Index (EI), Cumulative Apparent Volume (CAV) and Seismic Apparent Stress Frequency (ASF) were tested. The behaviour of the indicators was studied using the parameters of all seismic events within a sphere around the hypocenter location of the analyzed seismic source within one month before the main (damaging) event. The size of the sphere equals the estimated radius of the analyzed seismic source (area of inelastic deformation). mXrap software (Australian Centre for Geomechanics) was used for data visualization, manipulation, analysis and extraction. The results from the main analysis showed a good agreement between the expected and actual behaviour of the SAR, CSM and CAV indicators. In overall, CSM and CAV ranked the highest positive/expected behaviour followed by SAR (Table 3). The EI and ASF ranked lowest and showed to be sensitive to the number of events within the source sphere. The rate of false warnings and missed warnings was also investigated for the 25 days-long period before the damaging events. A similar trend was observed as for the main analysed event. The results from this study can be used for further improvement of the short-term hazard estimations and early warning system in deep underground mines.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2020. Vol. 177, no 2, p. 763-785
Keywords [en]
Induced seismicity in mines, seismic hazards, rockbursts, mine seismology
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Research subject
Mining and Rock Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-76653DOI: 10.1007/s00024-019-02352-8ISI: 000511540200011Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85074864360OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-76653DiVA, id: diva2:1369028
Note

Validerad;2020;Nivå 2;2020-03-10 (johcin)

Available from: 2019-11-10 Created: 2019-11-10 Last updated: 2020-03-10Bibliographically approved
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Nordström, EmiliaDineva, SavkaNordlund, Erling

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