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Back Analysis of Short-Term Seismic Hazard Indicators of Larger Seismic Events in Deep Underground Mines (LKAB, Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden)
Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för samhällsbyggnad och naturresurser, Geoteknologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-8134-2747
Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för samhällsbyggnad och naturresurser, Geoteknologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-9419-2207
Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för samhällsbyggnad och naturresurser, Geoteknologi.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-9766-0106
2020 (engelsk)Inngår i: Pure and Applied Geophysics, ISSN 0033-4553, E-ISSN 1420-9136, Vol. 177, nr 2, s. 763-785Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Back analysis for evaluation of the merits of the short-term seismic hazard indicators (precursors) used in the mines and their potential application for early warning was carried out for fourteen seismic events that potentially caused damage in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden, selected according to our designed criteria. Five short-term hazard indicators: Seismic Activity Rate (SAR), Cumulative Seismic Moment (CSM), Energy Index (EI), Cumulative Apparent Volume (CAV) and Seismic Apparent Stress Frequency (ASF) were tested. The behaviour of the indicators was studied using the parameters of all seismic events within a sphere around the hypocenter location of the analyzed seismic source within one month before the main (damaging) event. The size of the sphere equals the estimated radius of the analyzed seismic source (area of inelastic deformation). mXrap software (Australian Centre for Geomechanics) was used for data visualization, manipulation, analysis and extraction. The results from the main analysis showed a good agreement between the expected and actual behaviour of the SAR, CSM and CAV indicators. In overall, CSM and CAV ranked the highest positive/expected behaviour followed by SAR (Table 3). The EI and ASF ranked lowest and showed to be sensitive to the number of events within the source sphere. The rate of false warnings and missed warnings was also investigated for the 25 days-long period before the damaging events. A similar trend was observed as for the main analysed event. The results from this study can be used for further improvement of the short-term hazard estimations and early warning system in deep underground mines.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Springer, 2020. Vol. 177, nr 2, s. 763-785
Emneord [en]
Induced seismicity in mines, seismic hazards, rockbursts, mine seismology
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Gruv- och berganläggningsteknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-76653DOI: 10.1007/s00024-019-02352-8ISI: 000511540200011Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85074864360OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-76653DiVA, id: diva2:1369028
Merknad

Validerad;2020;Nivå 2;2020-03-10 (johcin)

Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-11-10 Laget: 2019-11-10 Sist oppdatert: 2020-03-10bibliografisk kontrollert
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Nordström, EmiliaDineva, SavkaNordlund, Erling

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