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Using Monte Carlo simulation as support for decision making while negotiating a PBL contract
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.
Saab Support and Services.
2014 (English)In: IEEE Aerospace Conference. Proceedings, ISSN 1095-323X, article id 6836495Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In connection with performance-based logistics (PBL) contracts for aircraft fleets it is very important to carefully analyse both operations and maintenance before and during the contract negotiation phase. Monte Carlo Simulation is a valuable methodology in this context since it allows delimiting and exploring a complex parameter space in a transparent and relatively easily visualized manner. With timely analyses it is possible to identify both technical and economic risks and minimize the possible consequences, a process that benefits both parties in the negotiation process. This paper describes a part of this process in connection with the negotiation of a PBL contract for the Swedish Air Force SAAB 105 (SK 60) trainer fleet between Saab AB and the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV). The information used in the simulations was largely empirical data derived from previous operations of the aircraft system. The main factors that were simulated were operational requirements, fleet size, spares inventories, turn-around times, failure rates and influence of extraneous factors (e. g. weather). The simulations resulted in considerable savings due to reduction of the active fleet size, and increased reclamation of surplus spares and units from retired aircraft.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. article id 6836495
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Research subject
Operation and Maintenance
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-29528DOI: 10.1109/AERO.2014.6836495Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84903974040Local ID: 309c4e43-9c5d-4f2a-98ac-21056867367dOAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-29528DiVA, id: diva2:1002752
Conference
IEEE Aerospace Conference : 01/03/2014 - 08/03/2014
Note

Godkänd; 2014; 20140805 (johsod); Konferensartikel i tidskrift

Available from: 2016-09-30 Created: 2016-09-30 Last updated: 2018-08-16Bibliographically approved

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Block, JanAhmadi, Alireza

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