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Applied Machine Learning: Forecasting Heat Load in District Heating System
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Computer Science.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8561-7963
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8681-9572
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4031-2872
Number of Authors: 42016 (English)In: Energy and Buildings, ISSN 0378-7788, E-ISSN 1872-6178, Vol. 133, p. 478-488Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Forecasting energy consumption in buildings is a key step towards the realization of optimized energy production, distribution and consumption. This paper presents a data driven approach for analysis and forecast of aggregate space and water thermal load in buildings. The analysis and the forecast models are built using district heating data unobtrusively collected from ten residential and commercial buildings located in Skellefteå, Sweden. The load forecast models are generated using supervised machine learning techniques, namely, support vector machine, regression tree, feed forward neural network, and multiple linear regression. The model takes the outdoor temperature, historical values of heat load, time factor variables and physical parameters of district heating substations as its input. A performance comparison among the machine learning methods and identification of the importance of models input variables is carried out. The models are evaluated with varying forecast horizons of every hour from 1 up to 48 hours. Our results show that support vector machine, feed forward neural network and multiple linear regression are more suitable machine learning methods with lower performance errors than the regression tree. Support vector machine has the least normalized root mean square error of 0.07 for a forecast horizon of 24 hour.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 133, p. 478-488
National Category
Media and Communication Technology
Research subject
Mobile and Pervasive Computing
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-59596DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.09.068ISI: 000389087300045Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84992362157OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-59596DiVA, id: diva2:1033758
Note

Validerad; 2016; Nivå 2; 2016-11-08 (andbra)

Available from: 2016-10-10 Created: 2016-10-10 Last updated: 2018-07-10Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Applied Machine Learning in District Heating System
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Applied Machine Learning in District Heating System
2018 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In an increasingly applied domain of pervasive computing, sensing devices are being deployed progressively for data acquisition from various systems through the use of technologies such as wireless sensor networks. Data obtained from such systems are used analytically to advance or improve system performance or efficiency. The possibility to acquire an enormous amount of data from any target system has made machine learning a useful approach for several large-scale analytical solutions. Machine learning has proved viable in the area of the energy sector, where the global demand for energy and the increasingly accepted need for green energy is gradually challenging energy supplies and the efficiency in its consumption.

This research, carried out within the area of pervasive computing, aims to explore the application of machine learning and its effectiveness in the energy sector with dependency on sensing devices. The target application area readily falls under a multi-domain energy grid which provides a system across two energy utility grids as a combined heat and power system. The multi-domain aspect of the target system links to a district heating system network and electrical power from a combined heat and power plant. This thesis, however, focuses on the district heating system as the application area of interest while contributing towards a future goal of a multi-domain energy grid, where improved efficiency level, reduction of overall carbon dioxide footprint and enhanced interaction and synergy between the electricity and thermal grid are vital goals. This thesis explores research issues relating to the effectiveness of machine learning in forecasting heat demands at district heating substations, and the key factors affecting domestic heat load patterns in buildings.

The key contribution of this thesis is the application of machine learning techniques in forecasting heat energy consumption in buildings, and our research outcome shows that supervised machine learning methods are suitable for domestic thermal load forecast. Among the examined machine learning methods which include multiple linear regression, support vector machine,  feed forward neural network, and regression tree, the support vector machine performed best with a normalized root mean square error of 0.07 for a 24-hour forecast horizon. In addition, weather and time information are observed to be the most influencing factors when forecasting heat load at heating network substations. Investigation on the effect of using substation's operational attributes, such as the supply and return temperatures, as additional input parameters when forecasting heat load shows that the use of substation's internal operational attributes has less impact.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Luleå: Luleå University of Technology, 2018
Series
Licentiate thesis / Luleå University of Technology, ISSN 1402-1757
National Category
Media and Communication Technology
Research subject
Pervasive Mobile Computing
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-68486 (URN)978-91-7790-130-3 (ISBN)978-91-7790-131-0 (ISBN)
Presentation
2018-05-15, Skellefteå, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2018-04-24 Created: 2018-04-24 Last updated: 2018-06-28Bibliographically approved

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Idowu, SamuelSaguna, SagunaÅhlund, ChristerSchelén, Olov

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