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The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Ecology.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. (Political science)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1685-5527
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde.
Number of Authors: 272018 (English)In: Science Advances, ISSN 0036-8156, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 4, no 5, article id eaar8195Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Association for the Advancement of Science , 2018. Vol. 4, no 5, article id eaar8195
National Category
Natural Sciences Social Sciences Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-68711DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aar8195ISI: 000432440600044PubMedID: 29750199OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-68711DiVA, id: diva2:1205400
Note

Validerad;2018;Nivå 2;2018-05-14(andbra)

Available from: 2018-05-14 Created: 2018-05-14 Last updated: 2018-06-08Bibliographically approved

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