Spatio-temporal assessment of integrating intermittent electricity in the EU and Western Balkans power sector under ambitious CO2 emission policies Show others and affiliations
2018 (English) In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 164, p. 676-693Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
This work investigates a power dispatch system that aims to supply the power demand of the EU and Western Balkans (EUWB) based on low-carbon generation units, enabled by the expansion of biomass, solar, and wind based electricity. A spatially explicit techno-economic optimization tool simulates the EUWB power sector to explore the dispatch of new renewable electricity capacity on a EUWB scale, under ambitious CO2 emission policies. The results show that utility-scale deployment of renewable electricity is feasible and can contribute about 9–39% of the total generation mix, for a carbon price range of 0–200 €/tCO2and with the existing capacities of the cross-border transmission network. Even without any explicit carbon incentive (carbon price of 0 €/tCO2), more than 35% of the variable power in the most ambitious CO2 mitigation scenario (carbon price of 200 €/tCO2) would be economically feasible to deploy. Spatial assessment of bio-electricity potential (based on forest and agriculture feedstock) showed limited presence in the optimal generation mix (0–6%), marginalizing its effect as baseload. Expansion of the existing cross-border transmission capacities helps even out the variability of solar and wind technologies, but may also result in lower installed RE capacity in favor of state-of-the-art natural gas with relatively low sensitivity to increasing carbon taxes. A sensitivity analysis of the investment cost, even under a low-investment scenario and at the high end of the CO2 price range, showed natural gas remains at around 11% of the total generation, emphasizing how costly it would be to achieve the final percentages toward a 100% renewable system.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages Elsevier, 2018. Vol. 164, p. 676-693
Keywords [en]
Decarbonization, Renewable electricity, Intermittency, Optimization, Geospatial modeling, Power transmission
National Category
Energy Engineering
Research subject Energy Engineering
Identifiers URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-70899 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.034 ISI: 000448098600053 Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85054651755 OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-70899 DiVA, id: diva2:1249548
Note Validerad;2018;Nivå 2;2018-09-28 (marisr)
2018-09-192018-09-192018-11-29 Bibliographically approved