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The Role of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in a Stochastic Hosting Capacity Approach for Solar PV
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3449-1579
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4074-9529
Research and Development (R & D), Vattenfall AB Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0749-7366
2019 (English)In: Proceedings of 2019 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT-Europe), IEEE, 2019Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper introduces the terms aleatory and epistemic uncertainties for use in a stochastic hosting capacity method. The role these uncertainties play in the hosting capacity determination is illustrated. It is shown that distinction between aleatory (statistical) and epistemic (systematic) uncertainties is helpful to characterize the probability distributions correctly. For epistemic uncertainties, it is often challenging to obtain information on the probability distribution function. For aleatory uncertainties, a method for characterizing the probability distribution is presented. Aleatory uncertainties’ data measurements are used to obtain a distribution best-fit. The background voltage measurement for a customer in a low-voltage distribution network is used to illustrate the method. Values were obtained for the distribution functions of the three-phase voltages. The used distribution functions are found to influence the resulting hosting capacity. This entails that there is need for measurements and data collection. A research challenge remaining concerns the stochastic model of epistemic uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2019.
Series
IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe (ISGT Europe)
Keywords [en]
Aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, photovoltaic, stochastic modelling
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electric Power Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-76249DOI: 10.1109/ISGTEurope.2019.8905523Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85075877552OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-76249DiVA, id: diva2:1357943
Conference
2019 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT-Europe), 29 September-2 October, 2019, Bucharest, Romania
Projects
Hosting Capacity for Solar Power in Northern Sweden
Note

ISBN för värdpublikation: 978-1-5386-8218-0, 978-1-5386-8219-7

Available from: 2019-10-04 Created: 2019-10-04 Last updated: 2020-09-16Bibliographically approved

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Mulenga, EnockBollen, Math H. J.Etherden, Nicholas

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