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The Role of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in a Stochastic Hosting Capacity Approach for Solar PV
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science. (Electric Power Engineering)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3449-1579
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science. (Electric Power Engineerng)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4074-9529
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science. Vattenfall AB. (Vattenfall AB Research and Development)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0749-7366
2019 (English)In: IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies (ISGT), Bucharest: IEEE, 2019, p. 1-5, article id 133Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper introduces the terms aleatory and epistemic uncertainties for use in a stochastic hosting capacity method. The role these uncertainties play in the hosting capacity determination is illustrated. It is shown that distinction between aleatory (statistical) and epistemic (systematic) uncertainties is helpful to characterize the probability distributions correctly. For epistemic uncertainties, it is often challenging to obtain information on the probability distribution function. For aleatory uncertainties, a method for characterizing the probability distribution is presented. Aleatory uncertainties’ data measurements are used to obtain a distribution best-fit. The background voltage measurement for a customer in a low-voltage distribution network is used to illustrate the method. Values were obtained for the distribution functions of the three-phase voltages. The used distribution functions are found to influence the resulting hosting capacity. This entails that there is need for measurements and data collection. A research challenge remaining concerns the stochastic model of epistemic uncertainty.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bucharest: IEEE, 2019. p. 1-5, article id 133
Keywords [en]
Aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, photovoltaic, stochastic modelling
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Electric Power Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-76249OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-76249DiVA, id: diva2:1357943
Conference
IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies (ISGT)_2019
Projects
Hosting Capacity for Solar Power in Northern SwedenAvailable from: 2019-10-04 Created: 2019-10-04 Last updated: 2019-10-04

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Mulenga, EnockBollen, MathEtherden, Nicholas

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