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Capturing Swedish Industry Transition towards Carbon Neutrality in a National Energy System Model
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0385-8139
2020 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Industry is responsible for approximately 30 % of the total emissions of greenhouse gases, both globally and in Sweden. Given the climate targets set out in the Paris agreement, the industry is facing a challenging future, requiring effective policies to aid the transition. Energy system optimisation models are commonly used for analysing the impact from different policies and for assessing the transition to a climate-neutral energy system. In the past, the primary focus of the models has been on the stationary energy sector, and less on the industry. This thesis work, therefore, aims to improve energy system optimisation models as a tool for decision support and policy analysis about the industry. An improved modelling structure of the industry sector is developed and a wide range of future technology options that can support the transition to a climate-neutral industry is identified. The improved model is then applied in different scenario analysis, assessing how the Swedish industry can meet net-zero CO2-emission under resource limitations.

The methodology applied is energy system analysis with a focus on the process of modelling, an iterative process of i) model conceptualisation, ii) model computation and iii) model result interpretation. Two different models for the evaluation of the Swedish industry are developed and used; a TIMES based model (cost-minimisation) and a small linear optimisation model (resource optimisation).

An outcome from developing the model structure was that the following important aspects need to be represented in the model to capture the transition to a climate-neutral industry sector; i) synergies between different types of industrial processes, ii) setup of process chains based on important tradeable materials, iii) detailed technology representation. When identifying and analysing future technologies, it was concluded that there are plenty of technology options for Swedish industry to become fossil-free. Technology options were identified that enable all studied site categories (representing approximately 92 % of the CO2 emissions from Swedish industry in 2015) to reach net-zero CO2-emissions via either electrification (direct electric heating or via power to gas) or biofuels usage. CCS options were implemented for iron and steel industry, chemical industry, cement- and limestone industry and aluminium industry, and for most of the industrial energy conversion technologies. Although technology options for deep reductions in CO2 emissions exist, many of them require further development to enable full-scale implementation, as concluded in paper III.

The scenario analysis performed in paper I and paper II gives insights into key resources and technologies enabling the industry to reach net-zero CO2 emissions. About resources, biomass is seemingly the most cost-efficient option for reaching ambitious climate targets, e.g. according to the findings in paper II biomass is consistently preferred over electrified alternatives. However, the availability of biomass is limited, and increased electrification of technologies is unavoidable to achieve sustainable use of it (as seen in paper I and paper II). Finally, there is not one key enabling technology but rather key groups of enabling technologies that create cross-technology synergies, providing different benefits depending on resource availability and the overall needs of the system in different scenarios.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Luleå University of Technology, 2020. , p. 53
Series
Licentiate thesis / Luleå University of Technology, ISSN 1402-1757
National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-76868ISBN: 978-91-7790-508-0 (print)ISBN: 978-91-7790-509-7 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-76868DiVA, id: diva2:1373207
Presentation
2020-02-12, E632, Luleå tekniska universitet, Luleå, 09:30 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2019-11-27 Created: 2019-11-26 Last updated: 2020-01-10Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. A bottom-up study of biomass and electricity use in a fossil free Swedish industry
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A bottom-up study of biomass and electricity use in a fossil free Swedish industry
2019 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 167, p. 1019-1030Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

While previous research has focused on single industrial sectors or specific technologies, this study aims to explore the impacts of various industrial technology options on the use of biomass and electricity in a future fossil free Swedish industry. By building a small optimization model, that decomposes each industrial sector into site categories by type and technology to capture critical synergies among industrial processes. The results show important synergies between electrification, biomass and CCS/U (sequestration of CO2 is required to reach net-zero emissions). Reaching an absolute minimum of biomass use within the industry has a very high cost of electricity due to the extensive use of power-to-gas technologies, and minimising electricity has a high cost of biomass due to extensive use of CHP technologies. Meanwhile, integrated bio-refinery processes are the preferable option when minimising the net input of energy. There is, thus, no singular best technology, instead the system adapts to the given circumstances showing the importance of a detailed bottom-up modelling approach and that the decarbonisation of the industry should not be treated as a site-specific problem, but rather as a system-wide problem to allow for optimal utilisation of process synergies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2019
Keywords
Industry modelling, Energy-intensive industries, Biomass utilisation, CO2 mitigation, Energy transition, Energy system optimisation
National Category
Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-71680 (URN)10.1016/j.energy.2018.11.065 (DOI)000456351800084 ()2-s2.0-85059339023 (Scopus ID)
Note

Validerad;2018;Nivå 2;2018-12-05 (johcin)

Available from: 2018-11-20 Created: 2018-11-20 Last updated: 2019-11-26Bibliographically approved
2. A scenario analysis of furnace heating technologies in the iron and steel industry
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A scenario analysis of furnace heating technologies in the iron and steel industry
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This study aims to evaluate the energy- and CO2 performance of different technologies for heating furnaces in the iron and steel industry. The evaluation was carried out using the TIMES Sweden industry model, updated with improved techno-economic data for heating furnaces. The performance of the technologies was evaluated by applying a set of scenarios that simulates the potential circumstances in terms of resource availability and energy commodity costs under which the industry needs to be decarbonised. The results show that heating furnaces can reach net-zero emissions under very varying circumstances. Three types of energy sources provide the best options in all scenarios and are thus critical for lowering emissions in the case of Sweden. These are methane fuels (i.e. natural gas and bio-SNG), hydrogen (biomass-based and from electrolysis) and electricity. Thus, the challenge moving forward is to achieve a quick technology development that enables multiple options for fuel and electricity use.

National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-76865 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 44665-1
Available from: 2019-11-26 Created: 2019-11-26 Last updated: 2019-12-16
3. A climate neutral Swedish industry – An inventory of technologies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A climate neutral Swedish industry – An inventory of technologies
Show others...
2019 (English)Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: , 2019
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-76866 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 44678-1
Available from: 2019-11-26 Created: 2019-11-26 Last updated: 2019-11-26

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