Aggregated risk of a series of tunnels on Mumbai–Pune expressway
2020 (English)In: International Journal of Systems Assurance Engineering and Management, ISSN 0975-6809, E-ISSN 0976-4348, Vol. 11, no July, issue 2, p. 357-366Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
In the heavily industrialized western India, on the express way between Mumbai and Pune there is a series of five 03-lane one way tunnels. Risks in the tunnels on the hilly express way are sourced from the heavy goods vehicles often carrying dangerous goods. During the design stage, risk assessment is carried out using theoretical risk models such as OECD/PIARC DG-QRAM. However, during operational stage of a tunnel real time accident data are available to estimate the risk or fatality rate. In this paper a methodology has been developed to estimate aggregated risk of the series of 05 tunnels from the accident rate by Monte-Carlo simulation using simple random sampling technique. It has been found that major accident rate (or risk) is better represented by lognormal distribution.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2020. Vol. 11, no July, issue 2, p. 357-366
Keywords [en]
Risk, Aggregate risk, F–N curve, Mumbai–Pune expressway, Lognormal distribution, Gamma distribution, Monte-Carlo method, Simple random sampling
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Research subject
Operation and Maintenance
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-78721DOI: 10.1007/s13198-020-00970-3ISI: 000524617100001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85083382126OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-78721DiVA, id: diva2:1427325
Note
Validerad;2020;Nivå 2;2020-08-19 (johcin)
2020-04-292020-04-292020-08-19Bibliographically approved