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Vegetation and Drought Trends in Sweden’s Mälardalen Region – Year-on-Year Comparison by Gaussian Process Regression
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Embedded Internet Systems Lab. Research Institutes of Sweden, Unit for Data Center Systems and Applied Data Science, Sweden.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Embedded Internet Systems Lab. Research Institutes of Sweden, Unit for Data Center Systems and Applied Data Science, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4293-6408
Research Institutes of Sweden, Unit for Data Center Systems and Applied Data Science, Sweden.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Space Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4478-2185
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2020 (English)In: 2020 Swedish Workshop on Data Science (SweDS), IEEE, 2020Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This article describes analytical work carried out in a pilot project for the Swedish Space Data Lab (SSDL), which focused on monitoring drought in the Mälardalen region in central Sweden. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Moisture Stress Index (MSI) – commonly used to analyse drought – are estimated from Sentinel 2 satellite data and averaged over a selection of seven grassland areas of interest. To derive a complete time-series over a season that interpolates over days with missing data, we use Gaussian Process Regression, a technique from multivariate Bayesian analysis. The analysis show significant differences at 95% confidence for five out of seven areas when comparing the peak drought period in the dry year 2018 compared to the corresponding period in 2019. A cross-validation analysis indicates that the model parameter estimates are robust for temporal covariance structure (while inconclusive for the spatial dimensions). There were no signs of over-fitting when comparing in-sample and out-of-sample RMSE.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2020.
Keywords [en]
Drought, NDVI, MSI, Gaussian Process, Remote Sensing, Indexes, Kernel, Gaussian processes, Vegetation mapping, Stress, Data models, Clouds
National Category
Computer Sciences Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering Aerospace Engineering
Research subject
Machine Learning; Electronic systems; Atmospheric science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-81880DOI: 10.1109/SweDS51247.2020.9275587Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85099088058OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-81880DiVA, id: diva2:1507152
Conference
8th Swedish Workshop on Data Science (SweDS20), 29-30 October, Luleå, Sweden
Funder
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Note

ISBN för värdpublikation: 978-1-7281-9204-8

Available from: 2020-12-07 Created: 2020-12-07 Last updated: 2022-10-31Bibliographically approved

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Brännvall, RickardMilz, MathiasKovács, GyörgyLiwicki, Marcus

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Agües Paszkowsky, NúriaBrännvall, RickardMilz, MathiasKovács, GyörgyLiwicki, Marcus
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