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How Uncertain Is Too Uncertain? Validity Tests for Early Resilient and Risk-Based Design Processes
School of Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97330.
School of Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97330.
School of Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97330.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics. Palo Alto Research Center, Palo Alto, CA 94304.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0240-0943
2021 (English)In: Journal of mechanical design (1990), ISSN 1050-0472, E-ISSN 1528-9001, Vol. 143, no 1, article id 011702Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A number of risk and resilience-based design methods have been put forward over the years that seek to provide designers the tools to reduce the effects of potential hazards in the early design phase. However, because of the associated high level of uncertainty and low-fidelity design representations, one might justifiably wonder if using a resilient design process in the early design phase will reliably produce useful results that would improve the realized design. This paper provides a testing framework for design processes that determines the validity of the process by quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in the assumptions used to make decisions. This framework uses this quantified uncertainty to test whether three metrics are within desirable bounds: the change in the design when uncertainty is considered, the increase in the expected value of the design, and the cost of choice-related uncertainty. This approach is illustrated using two examples to demonstrate how both discrete and continuous parametric uncertainty can be considered in the testing procedure. These examples show that early design process validity is sensitive to the level of uncertainty and magnitude of design changes, suggesting that while there is a justifiable decision-theoretic case to consider high-level, high-impact design changes during the early design phase, there is less of a case to choose between relatively similar design options because the cost of making the choice under high uncertainty is greater than the expected value improvement from choosing the better design.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ASME Press, 2021. Vol. 143, no 1, article id 011702
Keywords [en]
functional reasoning, systems design, systems engineering, uncertainty analysis
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Research subject
Operation and Maintenance
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-82149DOI: 10.1115/1.4047346ISI: 000596582400004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85101676010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-82149DiVA, id: diva2:1513992
Note

Validerad;2021;Nivå 2;2021-01-04 (alebob);

Finansiär: NASA Ames Research Center (NASA NS295A, NSF IIP-1362167)

Available from: 2021-01-04 Created: 2021-01-04 Last updated: 2021-04-09Bibliographically approved

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Goebel, Kai

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