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Time Series Forecasting using Genetic Algorithm: A Case Study of Maintenance Cost Data For Tunnel Fans
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1967-6604
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5620-5265
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7744-2155
2018 (English)In: ADVCOMP 2018: The Twelfth International Conference on Advanced Engineering Computing and Applications in Sciences / [ed] Claus-Peter Rückemann; Ahmad Rafi Qawasmeh, International Academy, Research and Industry Association (IARIA) , 2018, p. 4-9Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Time series forecasting is widely used as a basis for economic planning, production planning, production control and optimizing industrial processes. The aim of this study has been to develop a novel two-level Genetic Algorithm (GA) to optimize time series forecasting in order to forecast cost data for fans used in road tunnels by the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). The first level of the GA is responsible for the process of forecasting time series cost data, while the second level evaluates the forecasting. The first level implements GA based on the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The second level utilizes a GA based on forecasting error rate to identify a proper forecasting. The results show that GA based on the ARIMA model produces better forecasting results for the labor cost data objects. It was found that a multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model showed an improved performance. The forecasted data can be used for Life cycle cost (LCC) analysis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
International Academy, Research and Industry Association (IARIA) , 2018. p. 4-9
Series
ADVCOMP the International Conference on Advanced Engineering Computing and Applications in Sciences, ISSN 2308-4499
Keywords [en]
ARIMA model, Time series forecasting, Genetic Algorithm (GA), Life Cycle Cost (LCC), Maintenance cost data
National Category
Computer Sciences Reliability and Maintenance
Research subject
Operation and Maintenance
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-86798ISI: 000464893300002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-86798DiVA, id: diva2:1587046
Conference
12th International Conference on Advanced Engineering Computing and Applications in Sciences (ADVCOMP 2018), Athens, Greece, November 18-22, 2018
Note

ISBN för värdpublikation:978-1-61208-677-4

Available from: 2021-08-23 Created: 2021-08-23 Last updated: 2021-08-23Bibliographically approved

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https://www.thinkmind.org/index.php?view=article&articleid=advcomp_2018_1_20_20009

Authority records

Al-Douri, Yamur K.Al-Chalabi, HussanLundberg, Jan

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