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Emergency decision-making model of suppliers with updating information in cases of sudden accidents
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Business Administration and Industrial Engineering. School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6734-249X
School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Business Administration and Industrial Engineering. School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4637-0376
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Business Administration and Industrial Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8473-3663
2021 (English)In: Computers & industrial engineering, ISSN 0360-8352, E-ISSN 1879-0550, Vol. 162, article id 107740Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In view of uncertainties caused by sudden accidents (SAs) and affecting retailers’ demand in many districts, it is difficult for suppliers to determine when and how many products to procure/produce. Considering a supply chain consisting of two types of competing suppliers and multi-retailer, this work studies the suppliers’ optimal emergency procurement/production decision (EPD) with information updating. Firstly, a probability evolution model with information updating to describe the probability of the retailers’ procurement behavior and the occurrence probability of supply disruption (SD) is inferred. Secondly, suppliers’ EPDs regarding retailers’ procurement behavior and occurrence probability of SD are discussed and a real-time updated emergency decision-making model (EDM) is proposed based on Stackelberg game and Bayesian inference. Thirdly, the value of information updating and the critical factors that affect the suppliers’ optimal EPD are quantitatively analysed. Numerical examples are finally provided to verify the EDM. Results indicate that information is the premise and foundation for the suppliers to deal with SA effectively; suppliers can easily determine when and how many products to procure/produce based on the proposed EDM; it is demonstrated that for any chosen supplier strategy, there exists a corresponding optimal procurement/production quantity for the suppliers that maximises the expected profits. Moreover, the suppliers’ EPD with information updating is affected by cost parameters, with the rank of information collection cost coefficient, unit procurement/production cost, unit sales price, unit holding cost and unit shortage cost, from apparently to slightly.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2021. Vol. 162, article id 107740
Keywords [en]
Emergency decision-making, Information updating, Supply disruption, Bayesian inference, Sudden accident
National Category
Business Administration
Research subject
Quality technology and logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-87518DOI: 10.1016/j.cie.2021.107740ISI: 000709904300002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85117167210OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-87518DiVA, id: diva2:1603177
Note

Validerad;2021;Nivå 2;2021-10-25 (beamah);

Fund: National Social Science Fund of China (17BGL179)

Available from: 2021-10-14 Created: 2021-10-14 Last updated: 2023-09-04Bibliographically approved

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Yang, HaidongLiu, BiyuMigdalas, Athanasios

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