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Classification Methods for Market Making in Auction Markets
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark.
Department of Product Development at Jyske Bank A/S, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Business Administration and Industrial Engineering. Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science,Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4222-9631
2021 (English)In: Journal of Financial Data Science, ISSN 2640-3943, Vol. 3, no 4, p. 151-169Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Can machines learn to reliably predict auction outcomes in financial markets? The authors study this question using classification methods from machine learning and auction data from the request-for-quote protocol used in many multi-dealer-to-client markets. Their answer is affirmative. The highest performance is achieved using gradient-boosted decision trees coupled with preprocessing tools to handle class imbalance. Competition level, client identity, and bid–ask quotes are shown to be the most important features. To illustrate the usefulness of these findings, the authors create a profit-maximizing agent to suggest price quotes. Results show more aggressive behavior compared to human dealers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Pageant Media , 2021. Vol. 3, no 4, p. 151-169
National Category
Computer Sciences Economics
Research subject
Quality Technology and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-89913DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2021.1.076Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85126554607OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-89913DiVA, id: diva2:1648076
Note

Godkänd;2022;Nivå 0;2022-03-29 (hanlid)

Available from: 2022-03-29 Created: 2022-03-29 Last updated: 2025-04-25Bibliographically approved

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Kulahci, Murat

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