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Machine learning with Belief Rule-Based Expert Systems to predict stock price movements
Department of Information Systems, University of Maryland Baltimore County, USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6422-1895
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Chittagong, Bangladesh.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7473-8185
Department of Learning and Philosophy, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0726-0692
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Computer Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0244-3561
2022 (English)In: Expert systems with applications, ISSN 0957-4174, E-ISSN 1873-6793, Vol. 206, article id 117706Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Price prediction of financial assets has been a key interest for researchers over the decades. Numerous techniques to predict the price movements have been developed by the researchers over the years. But a model loses its credibility once a large number of traders start using the same technique. Therefore, the traders are in continuous search of new and efficient prediction techniques. In this research, we propose a novel machine learning technique using technical analysis with Belief Rule-Based Expert System (BRBES), and incorporating the concept of Bollinger Band to forecast stock price in the next five days. A Bollinger Event is triggered when the closing price of the stock goes down the Lower Bollinger Band. The BRBES approach has never been applied to stock markets, despite its potential and the appetite of the financial markets for expert systems. We predict the price movement of the Swedish company TELIA as a proof of concept. The knowledge base of the initial BRBES is constructed by simulating the historical data and then the learning parameters are optimized using MATLAB’s fmincon function. We evaluate the performance of the trained BRBES in terms of Accuracy, Area Under ROC Curve, Root Mean Squared Error, type I error, type II error,  value, and profit/loss ratio. We compare our proposed model against a similar rule-based technique, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), to understand the significance of the improved rule base of BRBES. We also compare the performance against Support Vector Machine (SVM), one of the most popular machine learning techniques, and a simple heuristic model. Finally, the trained BRBES is compared against recent state-of-the-art deep learning approaches to show how competitive the performance of our proposed model is. The results show that the trained BRBES produces better performance than the non-trained BRBES, ANFIS, SVM, and the heuristic approaches. Also, it indicates better or competitive performance against the deep learning approaches. Thus BRBES exhibits its potential in predicting financial asset price movement.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022. Vol. 206, article id 117706
Keywords [en]
Stock prediction, Bollinger band, Belief rule, Expert system, Machine learning, Time series analysis
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Pervasive Mobile Computing
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-91188DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2022.117706ISI: 000841013700003Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85133647602OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-91188DiVA, id: diva2:1667249
Note

Validerad;2022;Nivå 2;2022-06-30 (joosat);

Available from: 2022-06-10 Created: 2022-06-10 Last updated: 2023-02-28Bibliographically approved

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Andersson, Karl

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