Dams are vital infrastructure for society as they provide various services (e.g., flood prevention, storage of byproducts from mining operations, water storage for irrigation and hydropower generation) by the impoundment of liquids. However, the storage of considerable volumes of liquids introduces a risk of uncontrolled discharge, due to dam failure, which could result in catastrophic outcomes. Consequently, the safety must be ensured throughout a dam’s service life and thus regular assessments are required.

For concrete dams, the current practices of stability assessment methods found in guidelines and regulatory rules require idealizations. This need for idealization is a weakness of current assessment methods as elucidated by the appended scientific articles. The essence of the results of the appended articles demonstrates that certain parameters and features of a dam, which are commonly neglected in current dam assessment, significantly influences the load capacity of a dam. Therefore, this study primarily deals with alternative assessment methods that can be used for dams.

Therefore, as an outcome of an extensive literature review on probabilistic analysis and scale model testing, summarized in the chapters of the thesis, a framework for concrete dam assessment is proposed. Even though the methods can be individually employed to assess the stability and safety of a dam, an approach that integrates the strengths of each method is currently not available.

The proposed framework is novel and combines scale model testing, finite element analysis, probabilistic analysis and is intended to resolve issues identified with current assessment methods. The framework integrates the strengths of each method provides a robust assessment strategy where cross-validation of the failure mode and capacity is achieved by utilizing both finite element analysis and scale model testing. Furthermore, in contrast to current dam assessment methods, it allows for large geometrical variations in the rock-concrete interface to be included in the analysis, which contributes significantly to the capacity of a concrete dam as elucidated by the appended articles.

The work in this thesis presents the theoretical foundation of the framework. It is intended to be applied in a future case study to evaluate its performance on an existing buttress dam.