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Climate change and its weather hazard on the reliability of railway infrastructure
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7272-0352
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2976-5229
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0216-5058
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2738-4708
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2023 (English)In: Proceedings of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023), Research Publishing Services , 2023, p. 2072-2078, article id P044Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Due to the accumulated greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, climate change will affect infrastructure networks regardless of different climate mitigation strategies. Our current investigation reveals an apparent increasing trend in the number of climatic-based failures in the Swedish railway infrastructure from 2010 until 2020.

Switch and crossing (S&C) is a critical part of the railway infrastructure network, which plays a key role in adjusting the railway network capacity and dependability performance. Due to the structure of S&C, it can be affected more by extreme climate change impacts, e.g., abnormal temperature, ice and snow, and flooding. Clearly, the reliability and hazard function of infrastructures will be affected by age and environmental conditions. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the effect of different climate change features / explanatory variables called "covariates" on the reliability of S&Cs. The proportional hazard model (PHM) is a practical approach to assess and prioritize the impact of various environmental covariates on S&Cs' reliability.

This paper aims to integrate climate change data with infrastructure asset health. This integration can be developed by utilizing proportional hazard methodology to assess the effect of different covariates on the reliability function. The proposed methodology has been verified through a number of S&Cs located on the Swedish railway network. As a main result, this study has revealed that the operational environment covariates significantly influence the reliability of S&Cs and profoundly affect the availability and capacity of railway tracks. The study indicates the need for effective climate adaptation options to reduce climate change impacts and risks to achieve resilience and climate-neutral railway infrastructure asset.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Research Publishing Services , 2023. p. 2072-2078, article id P044
Keywords [en]
Railway infrastructure, Cox proportional hazard model, Reliability analysis, Climate change, Climate adaptation
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering Other Civil Engineering
Research subject
Operation and Maintenance Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-103276DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-8071-1_P044-cdOAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-103276DiVA, id: diva2:1818228
Conference
33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023), Southampton, United Kingdom, September 3-7, 2023
Funder
Vinnova, 2021-02456, 2019-03181The Kempe Foundations, JCK-2215
Note

ISBN for host publication: 978-981-18-8071-1

Available from: 2023-12-08 Created: 2023-12-08 Last updated: 2024-10-22Bibliographically approved

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Kasraei, AhmadGarmabaki, Amir Hossein SoleimaniOdelius, JohanChamkhorami, Khosro SoleimaniThaduri, Adithya

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Kasraei, AhmadGarmabaki, Amir Hossein SoleimaniOdelius, JohanChamkhorami, Khosro SoleimaniThaduri, Adithya
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