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Evaluation of forecasting error measurements and techniques for intermittent demand
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Structural and Construction Engineering.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Business Administration and Industrial Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1173-6713
2010 (English)In: International Journal of Production Economics, ISSN 0925-5273, E-ISSN 1873-7579, Vol. 128, no 2, p. 625-636Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

When intermittent demand is concerned the Croston forecasting technique is mostly regarded as a better choice than single exponential smoothing. These two methods, Croston and single exponential smoothing, together with two modifications of the Croston method, are discussed and evaluated with real intermittent data. The apprehended performance of a forecasting technique is dependent of the chosen measurement of forecast errors. Our main purpose is to examine and evaluate different forecasting error measurements. Traditional measurements of forecast errors are studied, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE) etc together with new suggested complementary error and bias measurements: "Periods in Stock" (PIS) and "Number of shortages" (NOS). PIS considers the time aspect of the forecast error, NOS considers the development of Cumulated Forecast Error (CFE). A complementary measure for descriptive statistics of time series is also suggested, Mean Average Change. The conclusion, through Principal Components Analysis (PCA), is that a single measure of forecast errors cannot present the total different dimensions of the errors. Complementary error measures should be used.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 128, no 2, p. 625-636
National Category
Construction Management Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
Construction Engineering and Management; Industrial Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-2998DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.07.013ISI: 000284967500017Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-78049302509Local ID: 0beffe90-981f-11df-8806-000ea68e967bOAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-2998DiVA, id: diva2:975853
Note
Validerad; 2010; 20100725 (ysko)Available from: 2016-09-29 Created: 2016-09-29 Last updated: 2018-07-10Bibliographically approved

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Wallström, PeterSegerstedt, Anders

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  • apa
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