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Bioenergy futures in Sweden: system effects of CO2 reduction and fossil fuel phase-out policies
Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology.
SLU Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5194-4197
Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology.
2015 (English)In: Global Change Biology Bioenergy, ISSN 1757-1693, E-ISSN 1757-1707, Vol. 7, no 5, p. 1118-1135Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Bioenergy could contribute both to the reduction of greenhouse gases and to increased energy security, but the extent of this contribution strongly depends on the cost and potential of biomass resources. For Sweden, this study investigates how the implementation of policies for CO2 reduction and for phase out of fossil fuels in road transport affect the future utilization of biomass, in the stationary energy system and in the transport sector, and its price. The analysis is based on the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which includes a comprehensive representation of the national energy system. For the analysis, the biomass supply representation of MARKAL_Sweden is updated and improved by the use of, e.g., forestry forecasting modeling and through construction of detailed biomass supply curves. A time horizon up to 2050 is applied. The results indicate a potential for significantly higher use of bioenergy. In the main analysis scenario, in which CO2 reduction of 80% by 2050 is imposed on the Swedish energy system, the total bioenergy utilization increases by 63% by 2050 compared to 2010. The largest increase occurs in the transport sector, which by 2050 accounts for 43% of the total primary bioenergy use. The high demand and strong competition significantly increase biomass prices and lead to the utilization of higher cost biomass sources such as stumps and cultivated energy forest, as well as use of pulpwood resources for energy purposes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 7, no 5, p. 1118-1135
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-8673DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12225ISI: 000359384500017Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84938954019Local ID: 737dca1c-b21e-48b0-8e91-613612106a3aOAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-8673DiVA, id: diva2:981611
Note
Validerad; 2015; Nivå 2; 20141203 (andbra)Available from: 2016-09-29 Created: 2016-09-29 Last updated: 2018-07-10Bibliographically approved

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