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  • 1.
    Lundmark, Robert
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Forsell, Nicklas
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för teknikvetenskap och matematik, Energivetenskap.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Pettersson, Karin
    Rise.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för teknikvetenskap och matematik, Energivetenskap.
    Large-scale implementation of biorefineries: New value chains, products and efficient biomass feedstock utilisation2018Rapport (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 2.
    Lundmark, Robert
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Nolander, Carl
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Andersson, Stefan
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Olofsson, Elias
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Bryngemark, Elina
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för teknikvetenskap och matematik, Energivetenskap.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för teknikvetenskap och matematik, Energivetenskap.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Österrike.
    Forsell, Nicklas
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Österrike.
    Kindermann, Georg
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Österrike.
    Pettersson, Karin
    Chamlers tekniska högskola.
    Projekt: Storskalig utbyggnad av bioraffinaderier: Nya värdekedjor, produkter och effektivt utnyttjande av skoglig biomassa2016Övrigt (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [sv]

    Utvecklingen av kommersiella bioraffinaderikoncept är av strategisk betydelse för Sveriges utveckling till en biobaserad ekonomi. Bioraffinaderier bidrar till att ersätta fossila med biobaserade råvaror. Dessutom bidrar de till en smartare användning av biomassa, ökat förädlingsvärde samt utvecklingspotentialen av nya bioprodukter. Tekniska potentialer och industriella tillämpningar sammanlänkas med råvaruförsörjning samt marknads-, innovations- och policyaspekter. Projektet är tvärvetenskapligt och omfattar integration av modeller som kan redogöra för samspelet mellan olika sektorer, som inkluderar geografiska variationer av utbud och efterfrågan av skoglig biomassa, och som kan fånga effekterna av förändrade marknadsvillkor och styrmedel. För modellintegrationen kommer verktyg tas fram för att underlätta kommunikation och återkoppling mellan de ingående modellerna. Projektet syftar till att generera ny kunskap och ett modellramverk för avancerade systemanalyser relaterade till (i) den svenska biomassa och dess roll i ett hållbart energisystem och (ii) industriell omvandling av processindustrin i riktning mot ett framtida bioraffinaderi branschen. Genomförandefasen bygger på tre uppgiftsområden.

  • 3.
    Lundmark, Robert
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för teknikvetenskap och matematik, Energivetenskap.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för teknikvetenskap och matematik, Energivetenskap.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Bryngemark, Elina
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Zetterholm, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för teknikvetenskap och matematik, Energivetenskap.
    Olofsson, Elias
    Nolander, Carl
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Pettersson, Karin
    Chalmers tekniska högskola, Sverige.
    Harvey, Simon
    Chalmers tekniska högskola, Sverige.
    Ahlström, Johan
    Chalmers tekniska högskola.
    Andersson, Stefan
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Projekt: En hållbar omställning av energisystemet mot en ökad andel bioenergi2016Övrigt (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [en]

    3 PhD projects: Markets and price formulation (LTU, economics); Technologies and value chains (Chalmers) and; Location and industrial change (LTU, energy engineering). The general system perspective has its starting point in the importance of biomass and bioenergy in the transition to a long-run sustainable energy system and to an efficient spatial resource utilization and production with increased value chains. Focus is on biorefineries. A spatial approach will be applied in combination with national energy system modelling in connection with technological development potentials and industrial applications is linked to the feed-stock supply as well as market and policy issues.

  • 4.
    Ouraich, Ismael
    et al.
    Internationalization and Structural Transformation, Tillvaxtanalys, SE-831 40 € Ostersund, Sweden.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    A Spatial Price Determination Model for Multi-Market Heterogeneously Distributed Resources: An Application to Forestry Markets in Sweden2019Ingår i: Geographical Analysis, ISSN 0016-7363, E-ISSN 1538-4632, Vol. 51, nr 2, s. 182-202Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The spatial dimension is a key paradigm in price determination, as attested by recentstudies in the literature that highlighted the differential in market behavior between spa-tial and non-spatial pricing settings. In this paper, we develop a model of spatial pricingfor multi-market heterogeneously distributed resources, with an application to the Swed-ish forestry sector. The focus of the model is to estimate the impact of spatial interactionon the demand for resources in terms of resource allocation, competition, and pricing. Inits core, the pricing mechanism relies on a supply–demand framework. Using disaggre-gated data at the gridcell level for forest feedstock supply and harvesting costs in Sweden,we construct regional supply curves for each gridcell assuming a maximum transporta-tion distance to delimit the potential market. Demand nodes are exogenously determinedand are adjusted using a distance-decay model to assess demand pressure across loca-tions. We apply the model empirically to assess the impact on forest feedstock prices of a20 TWh increase in biofuel production.

  • 5.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    Purdue University.
    Agriculture, climate change, and adaptation in Morocco: A computable general equilibrium analysis2015Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The empirical analysis in this dissertation comprises two essays investigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Morocco, with an emphasis on climate uncertainty and robust adaptation.^ The first essay in Chapter 4 provides estimates of economic impacts of climate change, and estimates on the extent to which the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert (PMV), could help in agricultural adaptation to climate change and uncertainty.^ We simulated three cases. First, we examined the impacts of PMV on the economy in the absence of climate change and found that it could provide about a 2.4% increase in GDP if the targets could be achieved. Subsequently, we did a separate simulation of the impacts of climate change on the Moroccan economy with no PMV (CC-Only) and found that there would be negative GDP impacts ranging between -0.5% and -3% depending on the climate scenario under the without CO2 case. Including CO2 fertilization effects induces a slight change in the distribution of impacts, which range from -1.4% to +0.3%. Finally, we evaluated the extent to which PMV could help mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, and we found that the gain was quite small ranging between +0.02% and +0.04%.^ The ability of the PMV strategy to mitigate the negative effects of climate change is limited at best, if non-existent. This is due to the scope of the PMV simulations limited to the strategic agricultural crop sectors in Morocco, which jointly represent no more than 35% of aggregate agricultural GDP; whereas the rest of the sectors account for 65%. Additionally, the likelihood of meeting the PMV productivity targets is low in light of our benchmark analysis comparing productivity prior to and after the adoption of GMO technologies.^ The second essay examines the interaction of globalization through trade liberalization and climate change. Our hypothesis was that the more trade is liberalized, the higher the potential to compensate for losses due to climate change.^ Our findings suggest that at the global level, our hypothesis is verified. World welfare gains are highest under a multilateral trade liberalization scenario, which induces a total offset of climate change welfare losses. However, under partial trade liberalization, the welfare gains become very small in comparison with the climate change impacts.^ At the regional level, the results are more nuanced and our hypothesis does not hold for all regions. For instance, and focusing on Morocco as a case study, the net welfare impacts associated with trade liberalization are negative on average. But under the multilateral trade liberalization scenario, Morocco experiences net welfare gains under the SRES A1B and B1, which respectively reached US$ +23 million and US$ +16 million. Although trade liberalization induces net allocative efficiency gains under most scenarios, the large negative terms of trade effects offset most of the gains.^

  • 6.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    et al.
    Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette.
    Dudu, Hasan
    European Comission Joint Research Center, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville.
    Tyner, Wallace E.
    Purdue University, West Lafayette.
    Cakmak, Erol
    Department of Economics, TED University Ankara.
    Could Free Trade Alleviate Effects of Climate Change: a Worldwide Analysis with Emphasis on Morocco and Turkey2014Rapport (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper examines the interaction of globalization through trade liberalization and climate change, globally with a special focus on Morocco and Turkey. We use the GTAP model, which is a global general equilibrium model, to investigate trade liberalization welfare impacts under climate change, and its ability to provide mitigation and/or adaptation to potential losses. Our hypothesis was that trade liberalization would at least partially offset potential welfare losses induced by negative productivity shocks on agriculture. Our findings suggest that the world as a whole benefits the more trade is liberalized. For instance, under an unrealistic multilateral trade liberalization scenario, average net global welfare increases by +US$76,676 million. Hence, initial average welfare loss under climate change, which reached -US$31,775 million, is totally offset. Nonetheless, as we move away from complete trade liberalization to limited trade liberalization at the regional and sector levels, the gains realized are minimal and offset only marginally climate-induced welfare losses. At the regional level, most regions under trade liberalization do not experience large enough welfare gains to offset welfare losses triggered by negative productivity impacts in agriculture. The exceptions are countries/regions which are projected to benefit from climate change. For Morocco, tariff elimination under all scenarios on average induces additional welfare loss compared with the climate change only scenario. Despite the gains in allocative efficiency accruing from trade liberalization, the latter are generally low and are offset by the substantial negative contribution of the terms of trade and investment savings effects. For Turkey, trade liberalization induces net welfare gains under all scenarios. Nonetheless, these gains are not large enough to offset totally the initial loss under climate change. These results are primarily driven by the combined effect of allocative efficiency and terms of trade effects.

  • 7.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Lowenberg-Deboer, Jess
    Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA.
    Soumah, Alseny
    Independent Consultant, Coyah, Guinea..
    Diallo, Diawo
    Ministry of Employment, Technical Training and Professional Education, Conakry, Guinea..
    Employment Prospects for Agricultural Graduates in Guinea Conakry2017Ingår i: Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, ISSN 2141-2170, Vol. 9, nr 1, s. 5-13, artikel-id 4298A3861999Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Unemployment of graduates is a challenging problem in Africa, and it is aggravated by many factors such as population growth, mismatch between curriculum and employer needs, and lack of evidence-based policy making. In this context, the objectives of the present study are twofold. First, the aim is to identify key characteristics influencing labor market participation of graduates from agricultural higher education in Guinea. Second, the aim is to identify agricultural labor market needs in terms of skills and profiles desired by employers. Telephone surveys were administered to recent graduates from the main agricultural higher education institutions. The major findings from the analysis suggest that about one third of Guinean agricultural university graduates in the 2008-2013 period were employed in the formal sector in 2013-2014. Employment rates are lower for the technical schools. In terms of job creation prospects, key employers expect a doubling of hiring for positions requiring technical school or university training. Most of the projected growth is expected in the private sector. The results indicate that male graduates have a 7% higher probability of being employed as compared to female graduates in the aggregate analysis.

  • 8.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    A Geographically Explicit Approach for Price Determination of Forest Feedstock under Different Next-Generation Biofuel Production Scenarios: The Case of Sweden2016Ingår i: Meeting Sweden's current and future energy challenges, Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2016, Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2016Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 9.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    A Geographically Explicit Approach for Price Determination of Forest Feedstock under Different Next-Generation Biofuel Production Scenarios: The Case of Sweden2016Manuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    OverviewIn recent decades, the paradigm of transitioning from a fossil fuel-based economic system to a sustainable bio-based one has gained much traction in policy circles, which was motivated by a number of interlinked issues such as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, energy security and independence, climate change, etc. A number of countries have devoted substantial resources for developing alternative biofuels, based on biomass feedstocks from a number of sources which are broadly categorized as first generation biofuels or second generation biofuels. First generation biofuels were based on agricultural crop biomass (e.g. sugar cane- and cornbased ethanol, vegetable oil-based biodiesel). However, owing to growing concerns over negative spillover effects on e.g., food security, sustainability and environmental degradation, development of second generation biofuels became a necessity, especially with new conversion technologies development. As such, forest-based biomass represents one of the major sources of feedstock for the production of second generation biofuels, which has garnered increased attention in countries with significant forest endowment.Forest-based biomass will play an important role in reaching the EU energy targets, be it at the continental scale and/or at the country level. The EU forestry sector and related industries will be directly impacted through the expected increase in demand for forest-biomass for bioenergy production, which will affect market prices, profitability, rural employment, recreation and forest ecology. Demand pressure presents also opportunities for the existing forestry sector for new investments, production and employment, such as in forest biorefineries and energy companies producing heat and power (Solberg, Hetemäki, Kallio, Moiseyev, & Sjølie, 2014). The Nordic European countries have been historically among the pioneers in terms of early adoption of renewable energy, especially from biomass and renewable waste. For example, Sweden and Finland exhibit the highest shares of renewable energy consumption in gross inland energy consumption within the EU-28 at 55.1% and 30% respectively in 2013 (Routa, Asikainen, Björheden, Laitila, & Röser, 2013).The mainstreaming of forest biomass into the energy mix of Sweden took shape around the concept of forest energy supply chains, in which integrated biorefineries into existing industries plays a major role. A number of studies have investigated the problem of forest energy supply chain optimization (Leduc et al., 2010; Leduc, 2009; Pettersson et al., 2015; Wetterlund, 2013). Models have been developed out of these efforts. One such model is BeWhere-Sweden, which is a techno-economic, geographically explicit optimization model to determine optimal localization of integrated biorefineries. The strength of the model consists in its explicit treatment of spatial aspects of supply and demand of forest biomass from different sectors. MethodsOne of the main limitations of models like BeWhere-Sweden is their lack of feedback loop or integration with models of market simulation. For example, BeWhere-Sweden takes as a starting point estimated harvesting costs at gridcell level in Sweden for different forest biomass feedstocks. However, it ignores the potential impact of demand pressure from increased biofuel production on the market conditions for forest biomass. In other words, it assumes that the cost of procurement of forest biomass will not change as a result. Hence, it does not take into consideration the potential impact of the price mechanism on the optimal localization of potential biorefineries.Therefore, the objective of this paper is to develop a model of price determination of forest biomass that accounts for the potential impacts of increased demand pressure on the procurement costs and soft-link it to BeWhere-Sweden. The model is based on a demand-supply framework. Data on forest biomass supply and harvest cost at the gridcell level is available for Sweden for 334 0.5x0.5 degree gridcells (Lundmark et al., 2015). We use the data to construct supply curves, both at the national level and sub-national level. The supply and harvest cost data is available for four forest commodities: branch & tops, pulpwood, sawlogs and stumps. The latter are further distinguished depending on the type of harvest operation: thinning or final felling.On the demand side, the model is calibrated using data on current demand at gridcell level. By taking data from BeWhere-Sweden simulation runs under different biofuel production targets, we generate adjusted demand scenarios at the gridcell level, which allow us to investigate the potential impacts on market price as approximated by the harvest cost data (under the assumption that market price equals the estimated harvest cost). Hence, we are able to generate a updated matrix for harvest cost that can be fed back into BeWhere-Sweden to investigate how robust model simulations are in terms of optimal localization of biorefineries. Also, our model will help shed light on the spatial pattern of demand pressures on forest biomass resources and its impact on the spatial distribution of impacts on market conditions for the forest markets. ResultsWe run simulation scenarios for increased biofuel production from forest biomass for Sweden: 10 TWh and 20 TWh by 2030. The Table presents summary results for the scenarios. The percent change figures represent changes with respect to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that characterizes current production conditions. First, and as expected, increased demand pressure on the forest biomass will tend to push prices up. This is so given that biofuel production from forest biomass represents a direct competition for the traditional forest industries of Sweden. The magnitudes of change are highest for pulpwood and branches & tops from final felling, where they reach 0.93% on average (0.004% - 18.95%) and 0.45% on average (0.001% - 7.2%) respectively. Second, the spatial distribution of price change matches expectations as they map out with the spatial distribution of supply and demand. Most of the change occurs in the middle and northern parts of Sweden. Third, the results do not exhibit significant change across biofuel scenarios.ConclusionsThe simulation results are summarized as follows: Spatial distribution of price changes does not track spatial distribution of demand pressure, which holds for the 10 TWh and 20 TWh scenarios. The largest impacts are observed in the southern and middle parts of Sweden, despite large endowments of forest, and this is due to high demand clustering owing to population density, industrial cluster, etc. However, relatively large impacts can be observed in the northern regions as well, especially for biomass obtained via the thinning operation. Spatial distribution of price changes differ based on the type of harvest operation, final felling vs. thinning. Biofuel production targets (or scenarios) might affect the spatial distribution, but relatively minor.ReferencesLeduc, S. (2009). Development of an optimization model for the location of biofuel production plants, PhD Thesis. Technology. http://doi.org/ISBN 978-91-86233-48-8, ISSN 1402-1544Leduc, S., Starfelt, F., Dotzauer, E., Kindermann, G., McCallum, I., Obersteiner, M., & Lundgren, J. (2010). Optimal location of lignocellulosic ethanol refineries with polygeneration in Sweden. Energy, 35(6), 2709–2716. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.07.018Lundmark, R., Athanassiadis, D., & Wetterlund, E. (2015). Supply assessment of forest biomass - A bottom-up approach for Sweden. Biomass and Bioenergy, 75, 213–226. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2015.02.022Pettersson, K., Wetterlund, E., Athanassiadis, D., Lundmark, R., Ehn, C., Lundgren, J., & Berglin, N. (2015). Integration of next-generation biofuel production in the Swedish forest industry – A geographically explicit approach. Applied Energy, 154, 317–332. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.04.041Routa, J., Asikainen, A., Björheden, R., Laitila, J., & Röser, D. (2013). Forest energy procurement: State of the art in Finland and Sweden. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 2(6), 602–613. http://doi.org/10.1002/wene.24Wetterlund, E. (2013). Optimal Localisation of Next Generation Biofuel Production in Sweden – Part II.

  • 10.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Nicklas, Forsell
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
    Price Impact Analysis of Increased Biofuel Production on Forest Feedstock Markets : A Spatial Explicit Approach for Sweden2017Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper introduces a model of price determination to analyze the impacts of increased biofuel production on forest feedstocks markets in Sweden. The model is based on a spatially-explicit, demand-supply framework. Data on forest biomass supply and harvest cost at the gridcell level is available for Sweden for 334 0.5x0.5 degree gridcells. We use the data to construct supply curves, both at the national level and sub-national level. The supply and harvest cost data is available for four forest commodities: branch & tops, pulpwood, sawlogs and stumps. The latter are further distinguished depending on the type of harvest operation: thinning or final felling. On the demand side, the model is calibrated using data on current demand for each feedstock at gridcell level. Demand scenarios for different biofuel targets are generated from the BeWhere-Sweden model at the gridcell level, which allow us to investigate the potential impacts on market price as approximated by the harvest cost data. We run simulation scenarios for increased biofuel production from forest biomass for Sweden: a 10 and 20 terawatt hour (TWh) of biofuel by 2030. As expected, the results show that increased demand pressure on the forest biomass will tend to push prices up. The magnitudes of change are highest for pulpwood and branches & tops from final felling, where they reach 0.004% to 18.95% and 0.001% to 7.2% respectively. With respect to the spatial distribution of price change, we notice that it matches expectations as they map out with the spatial distribution of supply and demand.

  • 11.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    et al.
    Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette.
    Tyner, Wallace E.
    Purdue University, West Lafayette.
    Climate change impacts on Moroccan agriculture and the whole economy: An analysis of the impacts of the Plan Maroc Vert in Morocco2014Rapport (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper provides estimates of economic impacts of climate change, compares thesewith historical impacts of drought spells, and estimates the extent to which the current Moroccanagricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert, helps in agriculturaladaptation to climate change and uncertainty. We develop a regionalized Morocco ComputableGeneral Equilibrium model to analyse the linkages of climate-induced productivity losses (gains)at the level of administrative and economic regions in Morocco. Yield projections are obtainedfrom the joint-study by the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries and the World Bank,in collaboration with the National Institute for Agricultural Research, the Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations, and the Direction of National Meteorology. We model theclimate change impacts as productivity (or yield) shocks in the agricultural sector, and which areregion- and crop-specific. The yield projections are for 2050, and introduced with respect to a2003 baseline. With no adaptation, GDP impacts range from -3.1 per cent (worst-case scenario)to +0.4 per cent (best case scenario). The decline in GDP under the worst-case scenario resultsfrom a general contraction in economic aggregates. Accounting for the adaptation measures inthe Plan Maroc Vert, the GDP impacts from climate change are reduced and range from -0.3 percent to +3 per cent. Nonetheless, the adaptation potential of the Plan Maroc Vert is based uponthe assumption of achieving the identified productivity-enhancement targets, and which remainsquestionable.

  • 12.
    Ouraich, Ismail
    et al.
    Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette.
    Tyner, Wallace E.
    Purdue University, West Lafayette.
    Morocco's unique situation in the climate change arena: An analysis of climate forecasts and their link to agriculture2014Rapport (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Alterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures due to climate change will most likely translate into yield reductions in desirable crops. In this particular context, the object of this paper is to lay down findings and results for projected yield impacts in Morocco using a well-tested crop model, CliCrop, which estimates yield impacts based on water stress. Simulation results from the CliCrop model suggest declining yields, but not by much, and variability is projected to increase marginally. These results are in sharp contrast with the other yield forecasts, which show substantial yield declines for Morocco. It is important for future research to resolve these differences.

  • 13.
    Tyner, Wallace E.
    et al.
    Purdue University, West Lafayette.
    Serghini, Hassan
    Ouraich, Ismail
    Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette.
    Moroccan Agricultural Policy: a Recent Historical Context and Moving Forward via the Maroc Plan Vert2010Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    This report provides a historical perspective on Moroccan agricultural policy. For some commodities for which data was available, it is done using the approach of the World Bank Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa work [1]. However, we go beyond the measurements of trade and domestic policy distortion included in that work and cover issues such as market regulation. In addition there is a new trade policy review from the World Bank covering many of the details of policy implementation for many agricultural sub-sectors [2]. Following the review of the historical context, we introduce the basic elements of the Plan Maroc Vert which was introduced in 2008. We then provide a discussion of some important elements of that plan and possible accompanying measures that could help assure success in achieving Plan objectives. In particular, we stress the importance of modernizing the marketing systems for livestock products and fruits and vegetables.

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