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  • 1.
    Aldieri, Luigi
    et al.
    Department of Economic and Statistical Sciences, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisciano, Italy.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. The Ratio Institute, 103 64 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Paolo Vinci, Concetto
    Department of Economic and Statistical Sciences, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisciano, Italy.
    The Effect of Marshallian and Jacobian Knowledge Spilloverson Jobs in the Solar, Wind and Energy Efficiency Sector2021In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 14, no 14, article id 4269Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to establish if Marshallian and Jacobian knowledge spillovers affect job creation in the green energy sector. Whether these two effects exist is important for the number of jobs created in related fields and jobs pushed away in other sectors. In the analysis, the production efficiency, in terms of jobs and job spillovers, from inventions in solar, wind and energy efficiency, is explored through data envelopment analysis (DEA), based on the Malmquist productivity index, and tobit regression. A panel dataset of American and European firms over the period of 2002–2017 is used. The contribution to the literature is to show the role of the spillovers from the same technology sector (Marshallian externalities), and of the spillovers from more diversified activity (Jacobian externalities). Since previous empirical evidence concerning the innovation effects on the production efficiency is yet weak, the paper attempts to bridge this gap. The empirical findings suggest negative Marshallian externalities, while Jacobian externalities have no statistical impact on the job creation process. The findings are of strategic importance for governments who are developing industrial strategies for renewable energy.

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  • 2.
    Aldieri, Luigi
    et al.
    Department of Economic and Statistical Sciences, University of Salerno, Fisciano, Italy.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Sundström, Kristoffer
    The Ratio Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Vinci, Concetto Paolo
    Department of Economic and Statistical Sciences, University of Salerno, Fisciano, Italy.
    Wind Power and Job Creation2020In: Sustainability, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 12, no 1, article id 45Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a global overview of job effects per MW of wind power installations, which will enable improved decision-making and modeling of future wind-power projects. We found indications that job creation connected to wind-power installations is rather limited. In total, 17 peer-reviewed articles and 10 reports/non-peer-reviewed papers between 2001 and 2019 were assessed. Our three major policy conclusions are as follows: (a) job creation seems to be limited; (b) each new project should consider a unique assessment, since all projects have been undertaken within different institutional frameworks, labor markets, and during separate years, meaning that the technology is not comparable; and (c) the number of jobs depends on the labor intensity of the country.

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  • 3.
    Allstrin, Susanna
    et al.
    Ratio.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Ratio.
    Stern, Charlotta
    Ratio.
    Weidenstedt, Linda
    Ratio.
    12 punkter om distansarbete efter Covid-192021Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I och med att Covid-19-pandemin tvingade många anställda att skifta arbetsplatsen från kontoret till hemmet, tycks stigmat kring distansarbete, och framför allt hemarbete, ha minskat. Med ett möjligt slut av pandemin i sikte är frågan hur (kontors-)arbetslivet kommer att se ut framöver: Vad behöver man tänka på när man som arbetsgivare och/eller HR person funderar kring om distans- och/eller hybridarbete ska bibehållas, utökas – eller avvecklas? För företag blir det nödvändigt att analysera och planera hur den nya post-Covid verksamheten ska utformas. Det är av vikt för företag att uppnå en ny status quo när framtidens arbetsplats planeras; målet behöver vara att hitta ett arbetssätt som är gynnsamt för både arbetsgivare och anställda, oavsett om det rör sig om kontors-, distans- eller hybridarbete.

    Denna rapport syftar till att redogöra för forskningsläget kring hem- och distansarbete för att ge de som planerar för framtiden ett beslutsstöd. Forskningssammanställningen gör inte anspråk på fullständighet då det i nuläget är för tidigt att dra slutsatser om världens förändring efter pandemin. Rapporten diskuterar flera relevanta aspekter och presenterar konkret tolv punkter som är av vikt för den som leder och fördelar arbetet, samt dess stödfunktioner, på ett företag.

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  • 4.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Social Sciences. Ratio Institute; Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
    An Anatomy of Failure: China’s Wind Power Development2021In: The Wuarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, ISSN 1098-3708, E-ISSN 1936-4806, Vol. 24, no 2, p. 317-347Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    China is currently the world’s largest installer of wind power. However,with twice the installed wind capacity compared to the United States in 2015, theChinese produce less power. The question is: Why is this the case? This article showsthat Chinese grid connectivity is low, Chinese firms have few international patents,and that export is low even though production capacity far exceeds domesticproduction needs. Using the tools of Austrian economics, China’s wind powerdevelopment from 1980 to 2016 is documented and analyzed from three angles:(a) planning and knowledge problems, (b) unproductive entrepreneurship, and (c)bureaucracy and government policy. From a theoretical standpoint, both a planningproblem and an entrepreneurial problem are evident where governmental policiescreate misallocation of resources and a hampering of technological development.

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  • 5.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    An Anatomy of Mishaps – China´s Wind Power Development: USAEE Research Paper No. 18-375Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    China has in recent decades expanded its wind power generation capacity and become the world leader. Still, despite robust government support, wind power in China is obstructed by various barriers (e.g. quality deficiencies, inability to export, missing grid connections, and permit delays from central government for grid construction etc.). This paper synthesises the literature that has discovered weaknesses in the Chinese wind power development and suggests improvements. One observation is that when the Chinese government sets command-andcontrol construction targets over new installed capacity, actors delivered to target – but with several power plants without grid connectivity and severe quality problems. The article contributes to the academic debate over the role of policy making in renewable energy development and argues that China should improve their incentive structure and coordination of regulations.

  • 6.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    An Austrian economic perspective on failed Chinese wind power developmentManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    China is currently hailed as the world’s premier wind power producer. However, despite twice the installed wind power capacity compared to the United States in 2015, the Chinese installed capacity produces less power. Grid connectivity is remarkably low, Chinese firms have few international granted patents, and export is minimal even though production capacity far exceeds the domestic production needs. Using the tools of Austrian economics, failures in China's wind power development from 1980-2016 is documented and analysed. From a theoretical standpoint, both a planning problem and an entrepreneurial problem is evident where governmental policies create misallocation of resources and a hampering of technological development.

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  • 7.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Automatiseringen och jobben då och nu2020In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 48, no 2, p. 81-84Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
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  • 8.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Ratio.
    China’s Wind Power Development – An Anatomy of Mishaps: Ratio Working Paper No. 317Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    China has inrecent decades expanded its wind power generation capacity and become the world leader.Still,despite robust government support, wind power in China is obstructed by various barriers (e.g. quality deficiencies, inability to export, missing grid connections, and permitdelays from central government for grid constructionetc.). This paper synthesisesthe literature that hasdiscovered weaknesses in the Chinese wind power developmentand suggestsimprovements. One energy policy relevant observationisthat when the Chinese government setscommand-and-control construction targetsovernew installed capacity,actorsdelivered to target–but with severalpower plants without grid connectivity and severe quality problems. The article contributes to the academic debate over the role of policy making in renewable energy development and argues that China should improve theirincentive structure and coordination of regulations.

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  • 9.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Ratio.
    Crowding Out or Knowledge Spillovers from the Wind Power Industry: The Effect on Related Energy Machinery2018Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a risk that if a government adopts a R&D spending policy directed towards wind power technology crowding out of other technologies might occur due to fiscal constraints and changes in relative prices. The purpose of this paper is to provide a backward-looking analysis of how the accumulation of wind energy patents and public R&D spending affected the domestic and neighboring country output of granted patents in the “related energy machinery field”. The econometric analysis, a Poisson fixed-effects estimator based on the Hausman, Hall and Griliches (1984) method, relies on a data set consisting of eight countries in Western Europe with the highest rates of patent production in the field of wind power between 1978 and 2008. The results show that an accumulation of a national wind power stock is a statistically significant negative determinant of a country’s related energy machinery patenting outcomes. However, no crowding out effects of public R&D spending were found

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  • 10.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Social Sciences.
    Dags att städa upp: Koldioxidinfångningens potential2022 (ed. 1)Book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Den minskning av koldioxidutsläpp som behöver komma till stånd globalt dröjer och riskerar bli för långsam och för sen. Olika former av koldioxidinfångning kommer därför att vara nödvändiga. I Dags att städa upp – potential för koldioxidinfångning tar Jonas Grafström, miljöekonom, ett helhetsgrepp på infångningstekniken. Han sammanfattar såväl teknik som kringliggande aspekter gällande exempelvis ekonomi, infrastruktur och energi.

     

    De tre metoder av koldioxidinfångning som huvudsakligen beskrivs i boken är infångning från utsläppspunkter (CCS), bioenergi med infångning (BECCS) och atmosfärisk infångning (DAC). Dessa förenas alla av behovet av aktiv lagring av koldioxidgasen efter infångningen. Metoder som binder koldioxiden till marken berörs endast kort.

     

    Koldioxidinfångning står inför tre huvudsakliga, generella utmaningar: Att ytterligare utveckla tekniken; att se till att kostnaderna för den blir rimliga; och att den blir del av ett kretslopp och en marknad.

     

    Koldioxidinfångning inte är ett substitut för att drastiskt minska koldioxidutsläppen. Att fasa ut fossila bränslen, utöka förnybar energi och påskynda effektivitetsåtgärder, är nödvändigt. Infångning som begränsningsmetoder kommer ensamma inte räcka till för att förhindra uppvärmning. Det är inte ”antingen eller” utan ”både och”.

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  • 11.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Divergence of Renewable Energy Invention Efforts in Europe: An Econometric Analysis Based on Patent CountsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the presence of convergence (or divergence) of invention efforts per capita in the renewable energy field across European Union (EU) countries. Divergence may imply a risk of a lower level of goal fulfilment regarding the share of renewable energy in the EU energy mix. This is due to free-rider issues and sub-optimal investment levels, in turn making it more expensive and cumbersome to expand renewable energy production. Convergence suggests a faster renewable energy goal achievement. The econometric analysis is based on patent application counts per capita for 13 EU Member States over the time period 1990–2012. The methods used draw on the economic convergence literature. First, we rely on a panel data set to test for conditional β-convergence. Moreover, a distributional dynamics approach is employed to test for σ- and γ-convergence, and analyse the intra-distributional dynamics. The results indicate conditional β- and σ-divergence in renewable energy invention capabilities across the 13 countries, thus suggesting that some EU countries tend to free-ride on the development efforts of other Member States.

  • 12.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Divergence of renewable energy invention efforts in Europe: an econometric analysis based on patent counts2018In: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, ISSN 1432-847X, E-ISSN 1867-383X, Vol. 20, no 4, p. 829-859Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the presence of convergence (or divergence) of invention efforts per capita in the renewable energy field across European Union (EU) countries. Divergence may imply a risk of a lower level of goal fulfilment regarding the share of renewable energy in the EU energy mix. This is due to free-rider issues and sub-optimal investment levels, in turn making it more expensive and cumbersome to expand renewable energy production. Convergence suggests a faster renewable energy goal achievement. The econometric analysis is based on patent application counts per capita for 13 EU Member States over the time period 1990–2012. The methods used draw on the economic convergence literature. First, we rely on a panel data set to test for conditional β-convergence. Moreover, a distributional dynamics approach is employed to test for σ- and γ-convergence, and analyse the intra-distributional dynamics. The results indicate conditional β- and σ-divergence in renewable energy invention capabilities across the 13 countries, thus suggesting that some EU countries tend to free-ride on the development efforts of other Member States.

  • 13.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    International knowledge spillovers in the wind power industry: Evidence from Europe2014Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    During the last 30 years, there has been a remarkable change in the wind power industry with declining costs and increasing electricity output. A factor that might speed up the innovative process and development of wind power is knowledge spillover, something that has been found and is considered important for other industries. However, when it comes to wind power, there is a shortage of comprehensive studies and previous research has found only limited evidence of knowledge spillovers in the industry. The paper studies the patents granted during the time period 1978-2008 as an innovative measure and focuses on core wind power countries in Western Europe in order to examine those countries that as a matter of fact invest and are engaged in the wind power industry. Domestic knowledge spillovers are found to have a positive effect on patent production while the results of international more are more ambiguous.

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  • 14.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    International knowledge spillovers in the wind power industry: evidence from the European Union2018In: Economics of Innovation and New Technology, ISSN 1043-8599, E-ISSN 1476-8364, Vol. 27, no 3, p. 205-224Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the presence of international knowledge spillovers in the wind power sector. Specifically, the paper investigates whether successful invention efforts in one country, measured by way of granted wind power patent counts, have had positive effects on the neighboring countries’ abilities to generate patents of the same category. Data on the number of patents granted at the European Patent Office during the period 1978-2008 are used for the eight national technological leaders in the western European wind power sector. The few comprehensive wind power studies that exist have only found limited evidence of international knowledge spillovers. However, in this paper we find that international spillovers are statistically significant determinants of a country’s wind power patenting outcomes. Geographical distance is also taken into consideration, and the knowledge spillover effects are shown to become stronger with decreases in this distance. The results should have important policy implications, e.g., for a national government when it comes to applying an investment strategy in wind power or, alternatively, free-riding on other countries’ invention efforts.

  • 15.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    KappaManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 16.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Social Sciences.
    Kinas misslyckade vindkraftssatsning 1980–20162021In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 49, no 7, p. 51-56Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Kinas misslyckade vind-kraftssatsning 1980-2016 jonas grafström I en serieteckning publicerad 1952 i den sovjetiska satiriska tidskriften Krokodil skämtas det med Sovjets ekonomiska system. En arbetare och en byråkrat av-bildades under en 2 000 kilos spik. Ar-betaren frågade vem som behövde en så stor spik och byråkraten svarade: Måna-dens planmål uppfyllt (Nove 1986, s 94). I en artikel i Foreign Affairs från 1953 med rubriken "The Soviet Economy Outpa-ces the West" förutspår Peter Wiles, ba-serat på Sovjetunionens officiella statis-tik, att Sovjet skulle växa om västvärlden. Det Peter Wiles och många forskare vid den tiden inte såg var sprickor i det sov-jetiska ekonomiska systemet (Boettke 2001). Sovjetunionen är borta, den nå-got yngre 70-åriga Folkrepubliken Kina är fortfarande-i blandad utsträckning 1-en planekonomi som vissa tror kom-mer växa förbi väst. Sprickor kan dock ses i den kinesiska ekonomin. Den kinesiska vindkraftsindustrin fram till åtminstone år 2016 bör läggas till listan av sprickor. Efter att ha sam-manställt utvecklingen med data samt publicerade journalartiklar från framför allt kinesiska forskare som sa att Kinas vindkraft var "fantastisk men…" är det svårt att säga något annat än att den ki-nesiska vindkraften liknar spikfabriken i den sovjetiska satirteckningen. Trots att Kina hade en nästan dub-belt så stor installerad vindkraftskapaci-tet som USA år 2015 levererade den ki-nesiska installerade kapaciteten mindre elektricitet (IRENA 2018). Nätanslut-ningen var låg, kinesiska företag hade få beviljade internationella patent och exporten v​a

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  • 17.
    Grafström, Jonas
    The Ratio Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Less from More: China Built Wind Power, but Gained Little Electricity2022In: Questioning the Entrepreneurial State / [ed] Wennberg, Karl; Sandström, Christian, Springer, 2022, p. 219-231Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This chapter investigates Chinese wind power development and concludes that innovation cannot be pushed by the efforts of many, and that when the state clarifies directions and objectives, these can be achieved but with severe and unexpected side effects. Two topics are explored: wind curtailment and low technological development, both examples of unproductive entrepreneurship induced by government policies. The goal of wind power capacity expansion leads to construction (i.e., generation capacity) but little electricity. Examples of failures include low grid connectivity with, some years averaging 15% of generation capacity broken or unconnected to the grid. A key lesson for Europe is that forced innovation often amounts to little and that the old saying holds up: “no plan survives contact with reality.”

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  • 18.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Modern era Knowledge Spillovers in the Solar energy sectorManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an updated analysis of international knowledge spillovers in the solar energy sector. Specifically, the paper investigates how the accumulation of solar energy patents and public R&D spending affected the output of domestic granted solar energy patents. The econometric analysis relies on a data set consisting of most of the OECD countries plus China and analyzes two time periods; from 1990 to 2014 and the years 2000 to 2014. To analyze the data material, a Poisson fixed-effects estimator based on the Hausman, Hall and Griliches (1984) method was used. The empirical findings suggest that the domestic accumulation of patents and R&D is important for the potential development of new ones. Indeed, early investment in specific technology can be an indicator of future leadership in that field. It also seems to be the case that long run investment works better for a country that wants to be a part of the development of a particular technology.

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  • 19.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Moderna tider 4.0: Från kugge i maskineriet till vinnare bland algoritmerna2020 (ed. 1)Book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    I den klassiska filmen Moderna tider står Chaplins lille luffare vid löpande bandet och drar åt muttrar i vansinnestakt. När en ny maskin ökar bandets fart ytterligare tappar luffaren fattningen och löper amok i fabriken. Om förändringens vindar blåste på 1920-talet så blåser de ännu, hundra år senare. Men vindbyarna är nu kraftigare än i någon storm vi hittills sett.

    VI HAR VARIT HÄR FÖRUT – OCH VI HAR ALDRIG SETT NÅGOT LIKNANDE.

    Vi är många som närmar oss ett vägval: antingen kan vi börja på en yrkesväg som leder till guld och gröna skogar, eller fortsätta trampa en allt smalare och allt mer eftersatt stig. Den här boken vänder sig till dig som är nyfiken på vad det är som förändras i Sverige och världen idag, vad vi kan lära oss av historiska omställningar och vilka branscher som kan påverkas, blomstra – eller dö.

    Historien visar att oavsett om det är teknologisk utveckling eller oförutsedda globala händelser som orsakar branschförändringar är en sak klar: förändringarna sker snabbt. Många kommer inte hinna med tåget. Det här är guiden till framtidens yrken för dig som inte vill bli kvar på perrongen.

    Kan Skalman, Karl Marx och South Park lära oss något om vad som händer på arbetsmarknaden nu? Och vad blir egentligen konsekvenserna när robotar städar, fixar pizzadegen samt sköter den finansiella marknaden och artificiell intelligens tänker snabbare och kör bil bättre än vi? Försvinner verkligen jobb eller är det i själva verket yrken som förändras? Det är dessa frågor Jonas Grafström tar sig an i boken Moderna tider 4.0 och visar att vi på många sätt är inne i en ovanlig tid. I dag går utvecklingen tio gånger snabbare, skalan är 300 gånger större, vilket grovt räknat ger 3 000 gånger större effekt.

  • 20.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. The Ratio Institute.
    Public policy failures related to China ́s Wind Power Development2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    An anecdote about the failure of the Soviet economic system tells about a factory which were evaluated based on tons of nails produced – unsurprisingly the nails became heavy. China is currently hailed as the worlds primer wind power producer; however, a closer examination reveals a string of policy failure making the Chinese wind power development resemble the infamous Soviet nail example. From a technological transition perspective, policy failures in China's wind power program from 1980-2016 is documented and analysed. Five overarching topics are analysed including: Conflicting policies, quality problems, underwhelming technological development, lacking technological standards and insufficient grid transmission system. One conclusion is that when the Chinese government set a command and control target of how much new installed capacity that was going to be constructed the state utilities delivered to target but with an abundance of power plants without grid connectivity, severe quality problems and low technological development.

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  • 21.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Referenslista: Moderna tider 4.02020Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
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  • 22.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. The Ratio Institute.
    Technological Change and Wage Polarization: The IlliberalPopulist Response2017Conference paper (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is discuss how technological change affect the labor marketand what populist actions that are expected follow. The causes and consequences of possibletechnological unemployment will be addressed and to what extent it could be expected thatthe rapid technological change leads to unemployment (or that the labor market adapts in asimilar way to previous technological changes as has been seen in history so far). A changinglabor market will constitute challenges for the future of liberalism - possible wage polarizationand heterogeneous distribution of unemployment in the labor force might create a demand forpolicy solutions that have an illiberal direction. In the paper it will be argued that the threatof populism will come from a disgruntled middle class rather than as commonly believed thepoorer stratas of the wage distribution.

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  • 23.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Technological Change in Service of the Environment2018Other (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Jonas Grafstrom provides an outline of how technological change in the renewable energy field can contribute to mitigate climate issues. Such knowledge enables policy makers (e.g., at the EU level) to make better and more informed decisions.

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  • 24.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Technological Change in the Renewable Energy Sector: Essays on Knowledge Spillovers and Convergence2017Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The overall purpose of this thesis is to investigate the determinants of technological change in the renewable energy sector, with a special emphasis on the role of knowledge spillovers and convergence across countries. The thesis consists of a preface and five self-contained papers. In Paper I technological change is broken down into the three major development stages laid out by Joseph Schumpeter: invention, innovation and diffusion. Econometric models of each of these stages are specified in the empirical context of wind power. The models are estimated employing a panel dataset consisting of eight western European countries over the time period 1991-2008. The results display evidence of national and international knowledge spillovers in the invention (i.e., patenting) model. The results from the technology learning models indicate evidence of global learning-by-doing, and that the prices of input factors have been important determinants of wind power costs. In line with previous research, the diffusion model results show that investment costs have influenced the development of installed wind power capacity. Paper II investigates how wind power inventions in European countries have affected the technological development achievements in neighboring countries. Data on the number of patents granted at the European Patent Office (EPO) during the period 1978-2008 in the eight technologically leading wind power countries in Europe are employed in a patent production function framework. The presence of international knowledge spillovers is found to constitute a statistically significant determinant of a country’s patent production. Geographical distance is also taken into consideration, and the results suggest that knowledge spillovers are subject to spatial transaction costs: with longer distances the role of international spillovers becomes weaker. Paper III investigates the convergence of inventive capabilities in the EU. Data on total patents per capita in 13 EU countries over the period 1990-2011 are analyzed using both parametric and non-parametric techniques. Converging inventive abilities may be important for the future of the EU given that rapid technological change has resulted in major structural changes in the Member States’ economies during the last decades. The β-convergence and σ-convergence tests suggest convergence in inventive capabilities, and this finding gains some support when analyzing the intra-distributional dynamics of the invention capabilities. Paper IV specifically investigates whether the generation of renewable energy patents per capita has converged or diverged across 13 EU countries over the period 1990-2012. The results indicate the presence of conditional β- and σ-divergence in renewable energy invention abilities. This could be critical for assessing the future prospects of EU policy in the renewable energy field; divergence in terms of invention outcomes could imply a less rapid and yet more expensive goal fulfillment due to free-rider behavior and sub-optimal investment levels. Finally, Paper V tests for convergence/divergence based on countries’ public spending to renewable energy R&D. The empirical analysis focuses on the presence of conditional β-convergence across 13 EU countries over the period 1990-2012. The results suggest divergence in public R&D-based knowledge accumulation, and this is consistent with free-riding behavior on the part of some EU Member States. Energy import dependence and electricity deregulation also affect this divergence pattern. For instance, the higher the energy import dependence, the lower is the speed of divergence across the EU countries in terms of public R&D support. Overall, the diverging pathways in terms of both public R&D and private patenting efforts may raise concerns about an unfair burden-sharing in terms of renewable energy development efforts.

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  • 25.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Ratio.
    Teknikutvecklingen och arbetsmarknaden2019In: En dynamisk arbetsmarknad / [ed] Lotta Stern, Stockholm: Dialogos Förlag, 2019, p. 26-40Chapter in book (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vanliga tider liknar varandra, men ovanliga tider är annorlunda på sitt eget sätt –teknikutvecklingen som pågår bär tecken som tyder på att vi är på väg in i en ovanlig tid. Det ovanliga i denna tid är den sammanlagda snabbheten av teknologiska förändringar. Historiskt har teknikutveckling förändrat arbetsmarknader men det har funnits gott om tid för omställning. I detta kapitel diskuteras teknikförändringarnas utmaningar och huruvida det sker en polarisering på arbetsmarknaden. Kapitlet avslutas med några tankar kring hur en person på arbetsmarknaden kan rusta sig för en framtida, potentiellt ovanlig, tid.

  • 26.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    The creation of renewable energy technology in Europe: are patents per capita converging?2016In: Energy: Expectationsand Uncertainty: Challenges for Analysis, Decisions and Policy, 2016Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates whether a convergence or divergence of national innovation capabilities regarding renewable energy patents of the 13 EU countries occurs in the course of the time period 1990-2010. An answer to the research question permits immediate conclusions with regard to the success prospects of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC), which sets climate and energy targets for both 2020. The empirical analysis is focused on whether renewable energy patents have converged or diverged between the countries. The data is based on patents granted at the European patent office. The methodologies applied draws from the economic convergence literature. The initial results have showed signs of conditional beta and sigma divergence in renewable energy invention abilities.

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  • 27.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    The strengths and weaknesses in the Swedish renewable energy sector: an assessment report2016In: Meeting Sweden's current and future energy challenges, Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2016, Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2016Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    There are both weaknesses and opportunities of the Swedish renewable energy sector. This papers aim at increasing the awareness of how the state of the sector is right now, if there are any obvious difficulties facing firms in Sweden and provide knowledge about what issues that has to be addressed in order for firms to be able to succeed. The aim is addressed by looking at data and connecting the data to growth theory. Three issues stand out. Business angels do not understand the industry: As angel investors not only contribute capital to the company, but also its expertise, commitment and contacts, it is important for most business angels that they understand the industry to invest in. Lack of capital -access to capital is insufficient. Small critical mass-absorbing technology: In order to absorb technology human capital is needed, not only in general but specific technology.

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  • 28.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Yearly summery of published works 20192020Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper I synthesis my published works 2019 and comments about them and what direction the research will take in 2020. Articles in academic journals, working papers, book chapters and other reports will be mentioned. I will present the abstract and some comments about the work. A conclusion and a direction of further research will also be presented.

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  • 29.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    The Ratio Institute, SE-113 59, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Aasma, Siri
    The Ratio Institute, SE-113 59, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Breaking circular economy barriers2021In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 292, article id 126002Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Despite high estimated gains of a circular economy implementation, progress on the macro, meso and micro level is sluggish. The purpose of this paper is to examine, from a theoretical economics perspective, how four barriers – technological, market, institutional and cultural – can prevent the implementation of a circular economy. The barriers that currently hinder a circular economy from developing are identified and a mapping of these barriers is performed to understand how they are interdependent and entangled. The conclusion is that even small barriers could stop the emergence of a circular economy. Even though a circular economy is different from our traditional “linear” economy, the theoretical analysis in this paper gives no reason to believe that a circular economy will not follow the same rules as a traditional economy. There will be property rights, rule of law and price signals guiding the economy. If some of the essential parts of a market are lacking, a weaker circular economy than otherwise possible will materialize.

  • 30.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Ratio.
    Hvalgren, Niclas
    Korpi, Matin
    Ratio.
    Förutsättningar för storskaligt infångande av koldioxid2018Report (Other academic)
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  • 31.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Jaunky, Vishal
    Convergence of Inventive Capabilities within the European Union: A Parametric and Non-Parametric AnalysisManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The development of a single economic market and rapid technological advances in the European Union (EU) have resulted in its Member States undergoing major structural changes over the past few decades. The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether or not there is convergence in the inventive capabilities across the EU. This is done by econometrically investigating, by means of parametric and non-parametric techniques, the development of patents granted per capita in 13 Member States per capita during the period 1990–2011. The findings of the β-convergence and σ-convergence tests show convergence in inventive capabilities. Moreover, a similar result is obtained when analysing the distributional dynamics of the invention capabilities. The speed of convergence is slow, however; this suggests that policy efforts implemented by the EU to reduce technological gaps among its Member States have been insufficient, and predicts negative long-term consequences for EU cohesion.

  • 32.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Ratio. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
    Lindeberg Goñi, Marcus
    Ratio. University College London.
    Korpi, Martin
    Ratio. Södertörns högskola.
    Koldioxidinfångning direkt ur luften, dyrt idag – billigt i framtiden?2019Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Sammanfattning i punktform:

    • Om DAC med dagenskostnad skulle användas för uppfångning av koldioxid motsvarande världens årliga utsläpp, skulle det årligen kosta en summa motsvarande en fjärdedel av världsekonomin.
    • Av de fåtal företag som bedriver direktuppfångning av atmosfärisk koldioxid (DAC) har bara ett av dessa offentliggjort sina kostnader. Företaget redovisar idag en kostnad som uppgår till 5600 SEKper insamlat ton.•Det finns dock stor potential för minskade kostnader över tid.
    • Osäkerheten i denna potential är mycketstor eftersom innovation, lärkurvor och energipriser generellt är svåra att uppskatta på längre sikt.
    • Efter en bästa gissning baserat på liknande kostnadsminskningar som för ex. solceller och vindkraft uppskattar vi kostnaderna för DAC att sjunka till ca. 750 SEK/tCO2 år 2050, eller någonstans mellan 168–2092 SEK.
    • Med utvecklingstakten ovan blir DAC samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt omkring år 2045.
    • För att nå denna potential krävs kraftiga investeringar i stöttande infrastruktur för snabb uppskalning och ekonomiska incitament för infångande (och senare lagring) av koldioxid.
    • Koldioxidskatter och andra typer av policyåtgärderpåverkar när DAC:s blir lönsam.
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  • 33.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Lindman, Åsa
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Invention, innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector2016In: Technological forecasting & social change, ISSN 0040-1625, E-ISSN 1873-5509, Vol. 114, p. 179-191Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an economic analysis of the technology development patterns in the European wind power sector. The three classic Schumpeterian steps of technological development, invention, innovation and diffusion, are brought together to assess the relationship between these. Three econometric approaches are used, a negative binomial regression model for inventions approximated by patent counts, different learning curve model specifications that have been derived from a Cobb-Douglas cost function to address innovation, and a panel data fixed effect regression for the diffusion model. We suggest an integrated perspective of the technological development process where possible interaction effects between the different models are tested. The dataset covers the time period 1991–2008 in the eight core wind power countries in Western Europe. We find evidence of national and international knowledge spillovers in the invention model. The technology learning model results indicate that there exists global learning but also that the world market price of steel has been an important determinant of the development of wind power costs. In line with previous research, the diffusion model results indicate that investment costs have been an important determinant of the development of installed wind power capacity. The results also point towards the importance of natural gas prices and feed-in tariffs as vital factors for wind power diffusion.

  • 34.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Ratio. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
    Paulsson, Rasmus
    Ratio. Lunds universitet.
    Sandström, Christian
    Internationella Handelshögskolan i Jönköping. Ratio.
    Axel, Wieslander
    Ratio. Handelshögskolan i Göteborg.
    Tillväxt och hållbar utveckling i Sverige – fick Lindbeck (1974) rätt?2020In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 48, no 7, p. 64-69Article, review/survey (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Frågan om samspelet mellan tillväxt och hållbar utveckling tar stor plats i den offentliga debatten och inom aka demin. Diskussionen handlar ofta om huruvida det är möjligt att kombinera ekonomisk tillväxt med minskad miljöpåverkan. 2019 släppte MIT-forskaren Andrew McAfee boken More from Less som beskriver hur USA:s ekonomi har genomgått en dematerialisering och minskat sin miljöpåverkan, parallellt med en växande BNP. De tidigare förutsägelserna från 1960-talet, att världen skulle få slut på naturresurser med relaterade samhällsproblem som följd har, enligt McAfee, därmed inte slagit in (se exempelvis Ehrlich 1968). McAfees argumentation liknar i flera avseenden de resonemang som fördes av Assar Lindbeck i Ekonomisk Debatt år 1974

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  • 35.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Social Sciences.
    Poudineh, Rahmat
    The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford, United Kingdom.
    No evidence of counteracting policy effects on European solar power invention and diffusion2023In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 172, article id 113319Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, the questions of how support policies affect invention and diffusion of solar PV technology and whether the effect is heterogeneous and counteracting are investigated in order to help policy makers produce a better policy mix. The policies (and policy proxies) investigated are Feed-in-tariffs (FITs), Public R&D stock and flow, Environmental tax, and Environmental Policy Stringency Index. The policies are within the control of national government and no EU level policies are investigated. Evaluating policies on several dimensions is highly important since there is a risk that policies can promote one aspect of technological progress such as invention but derail diffusion. A Schumpeterian technological development approach is utilised on a panel dataset covering 23 European countries between 2000 and 2019. Two econometric approaches are employed, a negative binomial regression model is used to assess inventions and a panel data fixed effect regression is used for the diffusion model. The empirical findings suggest that no counteracting policy effects were present.

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  • 36.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Ratio. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
    Sandström, Christian
    Internationella Handelshögskolan i Jönköping. Ratio.
    Mer för mindre?: Tillväxt och hållbarhet i Sverige2020Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Går det att förena ekonomisk tillväxt med hållbar utveckling? Den här boken beskriver hur miljöskadliga utsläpp och användningen av naturresurser i Sverige har förändrats över tid.

    Sedan 1990 har Sveriges befolkning ökat med drygt 1,6 miljoner och ekonomin nästan fördubblats. Samtidigthar koldioxid utsläppen minskat med 27 procent mellan åren 1990 och 2018, konsumtionen av el, vatten och energi har stått still vilket innebär att ekonomin är nästan dubbelt så effektiv. Av de 26 luftföroreningar Naturvårdsverket mätt sedan 1990 har 24 gått ner fram till 2017. I många fall har det skett mer än en halvering.

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  • 37.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Ratio. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
    Sandström, Christian
    Ratio. Chalmers Tekniska Högskola.
    Wieslander, Axel
    Handelshögskolan vid Göteborgs Universitet. Ratio.
    Mycket merför mindre: Tillväxt och hållbarhet i Sverige2020Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]
    1. Världens koldioxidutsläpp stiger fortfarande, vilket är ett enormt problem och arbete återstår. Men empiriska data från Sverige visar att det har gått att kombinera en växande ekonomi med krympande miljöpåverkan. Detta betyder att positiv förändring kan ske och möjligen kan överföras till andra länder.
    2. Sedan år 1990 har Sveriges befolkning ökat med drygt 1,6 miljoner och ekonomin nästan fördubblats. Samtidigt har koldioxidutsläppen minskat med 27 procent mellan åren 1990 och 2018. BNP per koldioxidenhet gick under perioden ner med 60 procent.
    3. Sedan 2008 (första året författarna har tillgängliga data ifrån) har de konsumtionsbaserade utsläppen från utlandet minskat.
    4. Utsläppen från bilar har minskat, trots att antalet bilar ökade med 1,2 miljoner.
    5. Av de 26 farliga utsläpp i luften som SCB har tillgänglig statistik över, har 24 minskat. I många fall är minskningen mer än 50 procent. Efter 1995 års förbud mot bly i bensin har dessa utsläpp minskat med 95 procent.
    6. Utsläppen av svaveldioxid har gått ner med 80 procent sedan 1990, trots den ekonomiska tillväxt som ägt rum under perioden. Nedgången i användning av kol och eldningsolja tycks vara främsta orsak till denna minskning.
    7. Det går att se kraftiga utsläppsminskningar av nickel, kadmium, krom, koppar, nickel och arsenik.
    8. Antalet inrikesresor minskade marginellt jämfört med 1990-talets början, men utsläppen sjönk 13 procent. Utrikesresor har dock stigit.
    9. Elanvändningen har gått upp med 2,8 procent sedan år 1990. Per capita och per BNP enhet har dock elanvändningen gått ner.
    10. Sverige tar ut mindre vatten och använder mindre vatten per person sedan både 1970 och 1990.
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  • 38.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Söderholm, Patrik
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Gawel, Erik
    Lehmann, Paul
    Struntz, Stephan
    Knowledge Accumulation from Public Renewable Energy R&D in the European Union: Converging or Diverging Trends?Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the presence of convergence (or divergence) in public renewable energy R&D spending accumulation in 12 Member States of the European Union (EU) and an extended set of 17 OECD countries. Specifically, we employ a data set covering the period 1980-2012. The motivation for investigating convergence in the selected countries are in part due to the political economy of imposing stricter targets for renewable energy. The method draws inspiration from the classic economic convergence literature. Various empirical specifications for conditional β-convergence is tested. The empirical results suggest divergence in public R&D-based knowledge accumulation, and this is consistent with free-riding behavior on the part of some Member States. Energy import dependence and electricity regulation also affect the divergence pattern, e.g., the speed of divergence.

  • 39.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Ratio Institute, Stockholm, Sweden. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford, UK.
    Söderholm, Patrik
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Social Sciences.
    Gawel, Erik
    Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.
    Lehmann, Paul
    Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.
    Strunz, Sebastian
    Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.
    Government support to renewable energy R&D: drivers and strategic interactions among EU Member States2023In: Economics of Innovation and New Technology, ISSN 1043-8599, E-ISSN 1476-8364, Vol. 32, no 1, p. 1-24Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the climate challenge requires proactive policies that spur innovation in the renewable energy sector, various countries commit vastly different levels of support for renewable energy R&D. This paper addresses the question why this may be the case. Specifically, the objective is to analyse the determinants of government support to renewable energy R&D in the European Union (EU), and, in doing this, we devote particular attention to the question of whether the level of this support tends to converge or diverge across EU Member States. The investigation relies on a data set of 12 EU Member States and a bias-corrected dynamic panel data estimator. We test for the presence of conditional β-convergence, and the impacts of energy dependence and electricity regulation on government R&D efforts. The findings display divergence in terms of government support to renewable energy R&D, and this result is robust across various model specifications and key assumptions. The analysis also indicates that countries with a low energy-import dependence and deregulated electricity markets tend to experience lower growth rates in government renewable energy R&D. The paper ends by discussing some implications of the results, primarily from an EU perspective.

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  • 40.
    Long, Vicky
    et al.
    Centre for Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Learning (CIEL) research, Halmstad University, Sweden; Ratio Institute.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Social Sciences. Ratio-Näringslivets forskningsinstitut, Stockholm, Sweden; Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
    What prevents machine learning from transforming industries?2021In: Technological Change and Industrial Transformation: Analysing Transformation and Technical Change / [ed] Vicky Long; Magnus Holmén, Taylor & Francis, 2021, p. 125-140Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The industrial utilization of machine learning (ML) technology is still in its infancy. This chapter provides empirical insights on how ML has been deployed in three firms and which forces are at work in this transformation. It is clear that two complementary advancements are needed to make ML generally useful: while ML technology thrives on access to big and varied datasets, the first advance is a reduction in the laborious work of manually cleaning, sorting and labelling the data, which defines how knowledge creation, technology and organization are interrelated. The second advance is to find sensible collaborative modes of data access and sharing, which challenges the very boundaries and interdependence of firms since the value of data for training ML algorithms depends on access to others’ data.

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