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  • 1.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    An Anatomy of Mishaps – China´s Wind Power Development: USAEE Research Paper No. 18-375Manuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    China has in recent decades expanded its wind power generation capacity and become the world leader. Still, despite robust government support, wind power in China is obstructed by various barriers (e.g. quality deficiencies, inability to export, missing grid connections, and permit delays from central government for grid construction etc.). This paper synthesises the literature that has discovered weaknesses in the Chinese wind power development and suggests improvements. One observation is that when the Chinese government sets command-andcontrol construction targets over new installed capacity, actors delivered to target – but with several power plants without grid connectivity and severe quality problems. The article contributes to the academic debate over the role of policy making in renewable energy development and argues that China should improve their incentive structure and coordination of regulations.

  • 2.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap. Ratio.
    China’s Wind Power Development – An Anatomy of Mishaps: Ratio Working Paper No. 317Manuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    China has inrecent decades expanded its wind power generation capacity and become the world leader.Still,despite robust government support, wind power in China is obstructed by various barriers (e.g. quality deficiencies, inability to export, missing grid connections, and permitdelays from central government for grid constructionetc.). This paper synthesisesthe literature that hasdiscovered weaknesses in the Chinese wind power developmentand suggestsimprovements. One energy policy relevant observationisthat when the Chinese government setscommand-and-control construction targetsovernew installed capacity,actorsdelivered to target–but with severalpower plants without grid connectivity and severe quality problems. The article contributes to the academic debate over the role of policy making in renewable energy development and argues that China should improve theirincentive structure and coordination of regulations.

  • 3.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap. Ratio.
    Crowding Out or Knowledge Spillovers from the Wind Power Industry: The Effect on Related Energy Machinery2018Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    There is a risk that if a government adopts a R&D spending policy directed towards wind power technology crowding out of other technologies might occur due to fiscal constraints and changes in relative prices. The purpose of this paper is to provide a backward-looking analysis of how the accumulation of wind energy patents and public R&D spending affected the domestic and neighboring country output of granted patents in the “related energy machinery field”. The econometric analysis, a Poisson fixed-effects estimator based on the Hausman, Hall and Griliches (1984) method, relies on a data set consisting of eight countries in Western Europe with the highest rates of patent production in the field of wind power between 1978 and 2008. The results show that an accumulation of a national wind power stock is a statistically significant negative determinant of a country’s related energy machinery patenting outcomes. However, no crowding out effects of public R&D spending were found

  • 4.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Divergence of Renewable Energy Invention Efforts in Europe: An Econometric Analysis Based on Patent CountsManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the presence of convergence (or divergence) of invention efforts per capita in the renewable energy field across European Union (EU) countries. Divergence may imply a risk of a lower level of goal fulfilment regarding the share of renewable energy in the EU energy mix. This is due to free-rider issues and sub-optimal investment levels, in turn making it more expensive and cumbersome to expand renewable energy production. Convergence suggests a faster renewable energy goal achievement. The econometric analysis is based on patent application counts per capita for 13 EU Member States over the time period 1990–2012. The methods used draw on the economic convergence literature. First, we rely on a panel data set to test for conditional β-convergence. Moreover, a distributional dynamics approach is employed to test for σ- and γ-convergence, and analyse the intra-distributional dynamics. The results indicate conditional β- and σ-divergence in renewable energy invention capabilities across the 13 countries, thus suggesting that some EU countries tend to free-ride on the development efforts of other Member States.

  • 5.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Divergence of Renewable Energy Invention Efforts in Europe: an econometric analysis based on patent counts2018Ingår i: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, ISSN 1432-847X, E-ISSN 1867-383X, Vol. 20, nr 4, s. 829-859Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the presence of convergence (or divergence) of invention efforts per capita in the renewable energy field across European Union (EU) countries. Divergence may imply a risk of a lower level of goal fulfilment regarding the share of renewable energy in the EU energy mix. This is due to free-rider issues and sub-optimal investment levels, in turn making it more expensive and cumbersome to expand renewable energy production. Convergence suggests a faster renewable energy goal achievement. The econometric analysis is based on patent application counts per capita for 13 EU Member States over the time period 1990–2012. The methods used draw on the economic convergence literature. First, we rely on a panel data set to test for conditional β-convergence. Moreover, a distributional dynamics approach is employed to test for σ- and γ-convergence, and analyse the intra-distributional dynamics. The results indicate conditional β- and σ-divergence in renewable energy invention capabilities across the 13 countries, thus suggesting that some EU countries tend to free-ride on the development efforts of other Member States.

  • 6.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    International knowledge spillovers in the wind power industry: Evidence from Europe2014Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    During the last 30 years, there has been a remarkable change in the wind power industry with declining costs and increasing electricity output. A factor that might speed up the innovative process and development of wind power is knowledge spillover, something that has been found and is considered important for other industries. However, when it comes to wind power, there is a shortage of comprehensive studies and previous research has found only limited evidence of knowledge spillovers in the industry. The paper studies the patents granted during the time period 1978-2008 as an innovative measure and focuses on core wind power countries in Western Europe in order to examine those countries that as a matter of fact invest and are engaged in the wind power industry. Domestic knowledge spillovers are found to have a positive effect on patent production while the results of international more are more ambiguous.

  • 7.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    International Knowledge Spillovers in the Wind Power Industry: evidence from the European Union2018Ingår i: Economics of Innovation and New Technology, ISSN 1043-8599, E-ISSN 1476-8364, Vol. 27, nr 3, s. 205-224Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the presence of international knowledge spillovers in the wind power sector. Specifically, the paper investigates whether successful invention efforts in one country, measured by way of granted wind power patent counts, have had positive effects on the neighboring countries’ abilities to generate patents of the same category. Data on the number of patents granted at the European Patent Office during the period 1978-2008 are used for the eight national technological leaders in the western European wind power sector. The few comprehensive wind power studies that exist have only found limited evidence of international knowledge spillovers. However, in this paper we find that international spillovers are statistically significant determinants of a country’s wind power patenting outcomes. Geographical distance is also taken into consideration, and the knowledge spillover effects are shown to become stronger with decreases in this distance. The results should have important policy implications, e.g., for a national government when it comes to applying an investment strategy in wind power or, alternatively, free-riding on other countries’ invention efforts.

  • 8.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    KappaManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 9.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Koldioxidinfångning direkt ur luften, dyrt idag – billigt i framtiden?2019Rapport (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [sv]

    Sammanfattning i punktform:•Om DAC med dagenskostnad skulle användas för uppfångning av koldioxid motsvarande världens årliga utsläpp, skulle det årligen kosta en summa motsvarande en fjärdedel av världsekonomin.•Av de fåtal företag som bedriver direktuppfångning av atmosfärisk koldioxid (DAC) har bara ett av dessa offentliggjort sina kostnader. Företaget redovisar idag en kostnad som uppgår till 5600 SEKper insamlat ton.•Det finns dock stor potential för minskade kostnader över tid.•Osäkerheten i denna potential är mycketstor eftersom innovation, lärkurvor och energipriser generellt är svåra att uppskatta på längre sikt.•Efter en bästa gissning baserat på liknande kostnadsminskningar som för ex. solceller och vindkraft uppskattar vi kostnaderna för DAC att sjunka till ca. 750 SEK/tCO2 år 2050, eller någonstans mellan 168–2092 SEK.•Med utvecklingstakten ovan blir DAC samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt omkring år 2045.•För att nå denna potential krävs kraftiga investeringar i stöttande infrastruktur för snabb uppskalning och ekonomiska incitament för infångande (och senare lagring) av koldioxid.•Koldioxidskatter och andra typer av policyåtgärderpåverkar när DAC:s blir lönsam.

  • 10.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Modern era Knowledge Spillovers in the Solar energy sectorManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an updated analysis of international knowledge spillovers in the solar energy sector. Specifically, the paper investigates how the accumulation of solar energy patents and public R&D spending affected the output of domestic granted solar energy patents. The econometric analysis relies on a data set consisting of most of the OECD countries plus China and analyzes two time periods; from 1990 to 2014 and the years 2000 to 2014. To analyze the data material, a Poisson fixed-effects estimator based on the Hausman, Hall and Griliches (1984) method was used. The empirical findings suggest that the domestic accumulation of patents and R&D is important for the potential development of new ones. Indeed, early investment in specific technology can be an indicator of future leadership in that field. It also seems to be the case that long run investment works better for a country that wants to be a part of the development of a particular technology.

  • 11.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap. Ratio.
    Public policy failures related to China´s Wind Power Development2019Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    An anecdote about the failure of the Soviet economic system tells about a factory which were evaluated based on tons of nails produced – unsurprisingly the nails became heavy. China is currently hailed as the worlds primer wind power producer; however, a closer examination reveals a string of policy failure making the Chinese wind power development resemble the infamous Soviet nail example. From a technological transition perspective, policy failures in China's wind power program from 1980-2016 is documented and analysed. Five overarching topics are analysed including: Conflicting policies, quality problems, underwhelming technological development, lacking technological standards and insufficient grid transmission system. One conclusion is that when the Chinese government set a command and control target of how much new installed capacity that was going to be constructed the state utilities delivered to target but with an abundance of power plants without grid connectivity, severe quality problems and low technological development.

  • 12.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap. The Ratio Institute.
    Technological Change and Wage Polarization: The IlliberalPopulist Response2017Konferensbidrag (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is discuss how technological change affect the labor marketand what populist actions that are expected follow. The causes and consequences of possibletechnological unemployment will be addressed and to what extent it could be expected thatthe rapid technological change leads to unemployment (or that the labor market adapts in asimilar way to previous technological changes as has been seen in history so far). A changinglabor market will constitute challenges for the future of liberalism - possible wage polarizationand heterogeneous distribution of unemployment in the labor force might create a demand forpolicy solutions that have an illiberal direction. In the paper it will be argued that the threatof populism will come from a disgruntled middle class rather than as commonly believed thepoorer stratas of the wage distribution.

  • 13.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Technological Change in Service of the Environment2018Övrigt (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Jonas Grafstrom provides an outline of how technological change in the renewable energy field can contribute to mitigate climate issues. Such knowledge enables policy makers (e.g., at the EU level) to make better and more informed decisions.

  • 14.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Technological Change in the Renewable Energy Sector: Essays on Knowledge Spillovers and Convergence2017Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The overall purpose of this thesis is to investigate the determinants of technological change in the renewable energy sector, with a special emphasis on the role of knowledge spillovers and convergence across countries. The thesis consists of a preface and five self-contained papers. In Paper I technological change is broken down into the three major development stages laid out by Joseph Schumpeter: invention, innovation and diffusion. Econometric models of each of these stages are specified in the empirical context of wind power. The models are estimated employing a panel dataset consisting of eight western European countries over the time period 1991-2008. The results display evidence of national and international knowledge spillovers in the invention (i.e., patenting) model. The results from the technology learning models indicate evidence of global learning-by-doing, and that the prices of input factors have been important determinants of wind power costs. In line with previous research, the diffusion model results show that investment costs have influenced the development of installed wind power capacity. Paper II investigates how wind power inventions in European countries have affected the technological development achievements in neighboring countries. Data on the number of patents granted at the European Patent Office (EPO) during the period 1978-2008 in the eight technologically leading wind power countries in Europe are employed in a patent production function framework. The presence of international knowledge spillovers is found to constitute a statistically significant determinant of a country’s patent production. Geographical distance is also taken into consideration, and the results suggest that knowledge spillovers are subject to spatial transaction costs: with longer distances the role of international spillovers becomes weaker. Paper III investigates the convergence of inventive capabilities in the EU. Data on total patents per capita in 13 EU countries over the period 1990-2011 are analyzed using both parametric and non-parametric techniques. Converging inventive abilities may be important for the future of the EU given that rapid technological change has resulted in major structural changes in the Member States’ economies during the last decades. The β-convergence and σ-convergence tests suggest convergence in inventive capabilities, and this finding gains some support when analyzing the intra-distributional dynamics of the invention capabilities. Paper IV specifically investigates whether the generation of renewable energy patents per capita has converged or diverged across 13 EU countries over the period 1990-2012. The results indicate the presence of conditional β- and σ-divergence in renewable energy invention abilities. This could be critical for assessing the future prospects of EU policy in the renewable energy field; divergence in terms of invention outcomes could imply a less rapid and yet more expensive goal fulfillment due to free-rider behavior and sub-optimal investment levels. Finally, Paper V tests for convergence/divergence based on countries’ public spending to renewable energy R&D. The empirical analysis focuses on the presence of conditional β-convergence across 13 EU countries over the period 1990-2012. The results suggest divergence in public R&D-based knowledge accumulation, and this is consistent with free-riding behavior on the part of some EU Member States. Energy import dependence and electricity deregulation also affect this divergence pattern. For instance, the higher the energy import dependence, the lower is the speed of divergence across the EU countries in terms of public R&D support. Overall, the diverging pathways in terms of both public R&D and private patenting efforts may raise concerns about an unfair burden-sharing in terms of renewable energy development efforts.

  • 15.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap. Ratio.
    Teknikutvecklingen och arbetsmarknaden2019Ingår i: En dynamisk arbetsmarknad / [ed] Lotta Stern, Stockholm: Dialogos Förlag, 2019, s. 26-40Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vanliga tider liknar varandra, men ovanliga tider är annorlunda på sitt eget sätt –teknikutvecklingen som pågår bär tecken som tyder på att vi är på väg in i en ovanlig tid. Det ovanliga i denna tid är den sammanlagda snabbheten av teknologiska förändringar. Historiskt har teknikutveckling förändrat arbetsmarknader men det har funnits gott om tid för omställning. I detta kapitel diskuteras teknikförändringarnas utmaningar och huruvida det sker en polarisering på arbetsmarknaden. Kapitlet avslutas med några tankar kring hur en person på arbetsmarknaden kan rusta sig för en framtida, potentiellt ovanlig, tid.

  • 16.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    The creation of renewable energy technology in Europe: are patents per capita converging?2016Ingår i: Energy: Expectationsand Uncertainty: Challenges for Analysis, Decisions and Policy, 2016Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates whether a convergence or divergence of national innovation capabilities regarding renewable energy patents of the 13 EU countries occurs in the course of the time period 1990-2010. An answer to the research question permits immediate conclusions with regard to the success prospects of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC), which sets climate and energy targets for both 2020. The empirical analysis is focused on whether renewable energy patents have converged or diverged between the countries. The data is based on patents granted at the European patent office. The methodologies applied draws from the economic convergence literature. The initial results have showed signs of conditional beta and sigma divergence in renewable energy invention abilities.

  • 17.
    Grafström, Jonas
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    The strengths and weaknesses in the Swedish renewable energy sector: an assessment report2016Ingår i: Meeting Sweden's current and future energy challenges, Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2016, Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2016Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    There are both weaknesses and opportunities of the Swedish renewable energy sector. This papers aim at increasing the awareness of how the state of the sector is right now, if there are any obvious difficulties facing firms in Sweden and provide knowledge about what issues that has to be addressed in order for firms to be able to succeed. The aim is addressed by looking at data and connecting the data to growth theory. Three issues stand out. Business angels do not understand the industry: As angel investors not only contribute capital to the company, but also its expertise, commitment and contacts, it is important for most business angels that they understand the industry to invest in. Lack of capital -access to capital is insufficient. Small critical mass-absorbing technology: In order to absorb technology human capital is needed, not only in general but specific technology.

  • 18.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Ratio.
    Hvalgren, Niclas
    Korpi, Matin
    Ratio.
    Förutsättningar för storskaligt infångande av koldioxid2018Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 19.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Jaunky, Vishal
    Convergence of Inventive Capabilities within the European Union: A Parametric and Non-Parametric AnalysisManuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The development of a single economic market and rapid technological advances in the European Union (EU) have resulted in its Member States undergoing major structural changes over the past few decades. The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether or not there is convergence in the inventive capabilities across the EU. This is done by econometrically investigating, by means of parametric and non-parametric techniques, the development of patents granted per capita in 13 Member States per capita during the period 1990–2011. The findings of the β-convergence and σ-convergence tests show convergence in inventive capabilities. Moreover, a similar result is obtained when analysing the distributional dynamics of the invention capabilities. The speed of convergence is slow, however; this suggests that policy efforts implemented by the EU to reduce technological gaps among its Member States have been insufficient, and predicts negative long-term consequences for EU cohesion.

  • 20.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Lindman, Åsa
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Invention, innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector2016Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change, ISSN 0040-1625, E-ISSN 1873-5509, Vol. 114, s. 179-191Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to provide an economic analysis of the technology development patterns in the European wind power sector. The three classic Schumpeterian steps of technological development, invention, innovation and diffusion, are brought together to assess the relationship between these. Three econometric approaches are used, a negative binomial regression model for inventions approximated by patent counts, different learning curve model specifications that have been derived from a Cobb-Douglas cost function to address innovation, and a panel data fixed effect regression for the diffusion model. We suggest an integrated perspective of the technological development process where possible interaction effects between the different models are tested. The dataset covers the time period 1991–2008 in the eight core wind power countries in Western Europe. We find evidence of national and international knowledge spillovers in the invention model. The technology learning model results indicate that there exists global learning but also that the world market price of steel has been an important determinant of the development of wind power costs. In line with previous research, the diffusion model results indicate that investment costs have been an important determinant of the development of installed wind power capacity. The results also point towards the importance of natural gas prices and feed-in tariffs as vital factors for wind power diffusion.

  • 21.
    Grafström, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Söderholm, Patrik
    Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, Samhällsvetenskap.
    Gawel, Erik
    Lehmann, Paul
    Struntz, Stephan
    Knowledge Accumulation from Public Renewable Energy R&D in the European Union: Converging or Diverging Trends?Manuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the presence of convergence (or divergence) in public renewable energy R&D spending accumulation in 12 Member States of the European Union (EU) and an extended set of 17 OECD countries. Specifically, we employ a data set covering the period 1980-2012. The motivation for investigating convergence in the selected countries are in part due to the political economy of imposing stricter targets for renewable energy. The method draws inspiration from the classic economic convergence literature. Various empirical specifications for conditional β-convergence is tested. The empirical results suggest divergence in public R&D-based knowledge accumulation, and this is consistent with free-riding behavior on the part of some Member States. Energy import dependence and electricity regulation also affect the divergence pattern, e.g., the speed of divergence.

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