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  • 801.
    Thu, Huong Nguyen
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Diagnostic checks in multiple time series modelling2016In: 2016 Proceedings of the International work-conference on Time Series, Granada, Spain, 2016, p. 308-315Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 802.
    Thu, Huong Nguyen
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Foreign Trade University, Department of Mathematics, Hanoi,.
    Diagnostic Checks in Multiple Time Series Modelling2017In: Advances in Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: Selected Contributions from ITISE 2016 / [ed] Ignacio Rojas, Héctor Pomares, Olga Valenzuela, Cham: Springer , 2017, p. 147-158Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The multivariate relation between sample covariance matrices of errors and their residuals is an important tool in goodness-of-fit methods. This paper generalizes a widely used relation between sample covariance matrices of errors and their residuals proposed by Hosking (J Am Stat Assoc 75(371):602–608, 1980 [6]). Consequently, the asymptotic distribution of the residual correlation matrices is introduced. As an extension of Box and Pierce (J Am Stat Assoc 65(332):1509–1526, 1970 [11]), the asymptotic distribution recommends a graphical diagnostic method to select a proper VARMA(p, q) model. Several examples and simulations illustrate the findings

  • 803.
    Thu, Huong Nguyen
    Foreign Trade University.
    Forecasting methods based on ARIMA models2004Report (Other academic)
  • 804.
    Thu, Huong Nguyen
    Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Statistics, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Jurıdicas, Campus de Getafe.
    Goodness-of-fit in Multivariate Time Series2014Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Goodness-of-fit is an important task in time series analysis. In this thesis, wepropose a new family of statistics and a new goodness-of-fit process for the wellknownmultivariate autoregressive moving average VARMA(p,q) model.Some preliminary results are studied first for an initial goodness-of-fit method.Since the residuals of the fit play an important role in identification and diagnosticchecking, relations between least squares residuals and true errors are studied. Anexplicit representation of the information matrix as a limit is also obtained.Second, we generalize a univariate goodness-of-fit process studied in Ubierna andVelilla (2007). An explicit form of the limit covariance function is presented, aswell as a characterization of its limit properties in terms of a parametric Gaussianprocess. This motivates the introduction of a new goodness-of-fit process based ona transformed correlation matrix sequence. The construction and properties of theassociated transformation matrices are investigated. We also prove the convergenceof this new process to the Brownian bridge. Thus, statistics defined as functionals of our process use a null distribution that is free of unknown parameters.Finally, simulations, comparisons, and examples of application are presented toillustrate our theoretical findings and contributions. Our proposed goodness-of-fitstatistics are shown to be quite sensitive for detecting lack of fit. They also seem tobe relatively independent of the choice of a particular lag.

  • 805.
    Thu, Huong Nguyen
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    On Multivariate Model Selection Involving Time Series of Environmental Kuznets curve2015Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies a generalized version of the relation between the sample correlation matrices of errors and their residuals. The results suggest confidence bands to select a proper multivariate time series model. Several simulations illustrate the theoretical findings. The literature of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) received particular interest, however, the empirical research on the EKC has mainly used a reduced form approach. Therefore, the proposed techniques can be applied to identify the multivariate relation between economic growth, environmental degradation and population. A real data application is provided for the case of Sweden.

  • 806.
    Thu, Huong Nguyen
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    On Multivariate Model Selection Involving Time Series of Environmental Kuznets Curve2016In: International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics, ISSN 0973-1385, E-ISSN 0973-7537, Vol. 37, no 3, p. 20-29Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies a generalized version of the relation between the sample correlation matrices of errors and their residuals. The results suggest confidence bands to select a proper multivariate time series model. The literature of Environmental Kuznets Curve received particular interest, however, the empirical research on the Environmental Kuznets Curve has mainly used a reduced form approach. Therefore, the proposed techniques can be applied to identify the multivariate relation between economic growth, environmental degradation and population. A real data application is provided for the case of Sweden.

  • 807.
    Thörn, Martina
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences.
    Green Public Procurement in Swedish Municipalities: An Econometric Analysis based on Survey Data2018Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
  • 808.
    Tilton, J.E.
    et al.
    Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado.
    Humphreys, D.
    Independent Consultant, London.
    Radetzki, Marian
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Investor demand and spot commodity prices: Reply 22012In: Resources policy, ISSN 0301-4207, E-ISSN 1873-7641, Vol. 37, no 3, p. 403-404Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This, our second reply to Östensson, supplements our earlier more technical analysis with a simple intuitive explanation of how investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.

  • 809.
    Tilton, John E.
    et al.
    Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Department of Mining Engineering, Santiago, Chile.
    Crowson, Phillip C.F.
    Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law & Policy, University of Dundee.
    DeYoung Jr, John H.
    Herndon, VA, USA.
    Eggert, Roderick G.
    Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    Ericsson, Magnus
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Guzmán, Juan Ignacio
    Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Department of Mining Engineering, Santiago.
    Humphreys, David
    DiaEcon Advisors, London.
    Lagos, Gustavo
    Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Department of Mining Engineering, Santiago.
    Maxwell, Philip
    Curtin University, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Perth, Western Australia.
    Radetzki, Marian
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Singer, Donald A.
    Singer Consulting, Cupertino, CA.
    Wellmer, Friedrich-W.
    Academy of Geosciences and Geotechnology, Hannover. National Academy of Science and Engineering, Munich and Berlin, Germany.
    Public policy and future mineral supplies2018In: Resources policy, ISSN 0301-4207, E-ISSN 1873-7641, Vol. 57, p. 55-60Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A widespread and pessimistic view of the availability of mineral commodities calls for strong government initiatives to ensure adequate future supplies. This article provides a more market oriented and optimistic perspective, one that focuses on production costs and prices rather than physical availability. It sees short-run shortages continuing to plague commodity markets in the future as in the past. Though painful while they last, these shortages are temporary and do not pose a serious long-run threat to human welfare. Moreover, even without government intervention, they self-correct. The sharply higher prices that they evoke create strong incentives that foster supply and curb demand.

    Potentially more serious are long-run shortages due to mineral depletion. Such shortages are often thought to be inevitable, a conclusion that flows directly from the physical view of depletion. For various reasons, we reject this view of depletion in favor of an economic view. The latter recognizes that depletion may create long-run shortages, but stresses that this need not be the case if new technology can continue to offset the cost-increasing effects of depletion in the future as it has in the past. The economic view also suggests that a list of mineral commodities most threatened by depletion can best be compiled using cumulative availability curves rather than the more common practice of calculating commodity life expectancies based on estimates of available stocks.

  • 810.
    Tilton, John E.
    et al.
    Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado.
    Humphreys, David
    Radetzki, Marian
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Investor demand and spot commodity prices2011In: Resources policy, ISSN 0301-4207, E-ISSN 1873-7641, Vol. 36, no 3, p. 187-195Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume? On the first question, the article concludes that a surge in investor demand raising prices on the futures markets will have a direct and comparable effect on the spot market prices when these markets are in strong contango. However, when markets are in weak contango or backwardation, price movements in the futures markets have a much looser effect on spot prices. As a result, changes in investor demand on the futures markets may have little or no influence on spot prices in the absence of a strong contango. Instead, changes in fundamentals (that is, producer supply and consumer demand) and possibly changes in investor demand taking place directly on the spot market largely determine the spot price at such times. On the second question, the article shows that investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling, despite the widespread presumption to the contrary.

  • 811.
    Tilton, John E.
    et al.
    Colorado School of Mines.
    Humphreys, David
    Radetzki, Marian
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Investor demand and spot commodity prices: Reply2012In: Resources policy, ISSN 0301-4207, E-ISSN 1873-7641, Vol. 37, no 3, p. 397-399Article in journal (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In a recent article (Tilton et al., 2011), we argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise, a conclusion that is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In his comment on our article, Olle Östensson (2011) challenges this finding. After assessing his concerns in this reply, we maintain that our original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.

  • 812.
    Ukani, Uzair
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences.
    Hotelling's Rule and Oil Prices: An Empirical Study2016Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The general objective has been to empirically analyze how Hotelling’s rule has predicted the crude oil price development over the last 100 years and if the rule can work as a framework to predict future resource prices. Hotelling’s rule has been perceived as both outdated and relevant, during the last decades. A general conclusion from previous research is that resource price-developments are more complex than Hotelling assumed. The analysis has been conducted through tests of variables like interest rates, time spans and extraction costs. The assumption of exponentially increasing resource prices has also been tested. The results obtained show no general support for the Hotelling-rule’s ability to predict future prices. Our results suggest that Hotelling’s rule predicts price paths best when a short time-span is considered. The lack of predictability is due to high volatility in resource prices, something Hotelling’s rule does not account for.

  • 813.
    Uwera, Claudine
    et al.
    University of Gothenburg, University of Rwanda, Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg.
    Stage, Jesper
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences. Department of Business, Economics and Law, Mid Sweden University, Sundsvall.
    Individual status quo modelling for a rural water service in Rwanda: Application of a choice experiment2016In: Environment and Development Economics, ISSN 1355-770X, E-ISSN 1469-4395, Vol. 21, no 4, p. 490-511Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In Rwanda, rural water supply is not uniformly distributed. Rural areas arecharacterized by differences in the distance to the nearestwater point and in water quality for domestic water, by watering frequency and water availability for irrigationwater, and by the price for both. A household’s perception of further improvements in water supply will, therefore, depend heavily on the situation it currently faces. The authors used a choice experiment to model how the individual status quo (SQ) affects preferences. Accounting for individual SQ information improves model significance relative to simply using the generic SQ parameter in the model, and the willingness to pay increases. Not using this information leads to a downward bias – and, in some cases, statistical insignificance – in estimates of households’ valuation of health improvements linked to improved domestic water availability, as well as of increased watering frequency linked to the improved availability of irrigation water.

  • 814.
    Uwera, Claudine
    et al.
    University of Rwanda, Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg.
    Stage, Jesper
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Water demand by unconnected households in urban districts of Rwanda2015In: Water Economics and Policy, ISSN 2382-624X, Vol. 1, no 1, article id 1450002Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we analyse water demand by urban households in Rwanda who currently lack a piped connection into their home. The analysis uses data from a cross-sectional survey. The results show that public taps are the most widely used water source and that the demand for water from this source is more inelastic than that for water from other water sources. Although some households combine different sources of water, the majority in the sample uses only one source. We use the full household income, including the value of the household’s time, and obtain results which indicate income elasticities higher than those obtained using monetary income only. The full cost associated with alternative water sources (including the opportunity cost of the time used) is shown to be important for determining the choice of source – something which has been overlooked in most previous studies.

  • 815.
    Velilla, Santiago
    et al.
    Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Statistics, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Jurıdicas, Campus de Getafe.
    Thu, Huong Nguyen
    Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Statistics, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Jurıdicas, Campus de Getafe.
    A basic goodness-of-fit process for VARMA(p,q) models2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    As an extension of the univariate technique in Ubierna and Velilla (2007), we present a goodness-of-fit process for VARMA(p,q) models in which the residuals of the fit are considered. We also formulatean explicit form of the asymptotic covariance function, as well as a suitable representation of the limitprocess. More importantly, we propose a new goodness-of-fit process based on a transformed correlationmatrix sequence. The new goodness-of-fit process is proved to converge weakly to the Brownian bridge.Several simulations, comparisons, and examples are presented. These results illustrate the scope of bothour theoretical findings and contributions. Our method is shown to be sensitive to detect lack of fit.Thus, it can be considered as a useful tool tool for identifying a proper time series model.

  • 816.
    Velilla, Santiago
    et al.
    Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Statistics, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Jurıdicas, Campus de Getafe.
    Thu, Huong Nguyen
    Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Department of Statistics, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Jurıdicas, Campus de Getafe.
    A new goodness-of-fit process for VARMA(p,q) models: construction and empirical properties2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    As an extension of the univariate technique in Ubierna and Velilla (2007), we present a goodness-of-fit process for VARMA(p,q) models in which the residuals of the fit are considered. We also formulatean explicit form of the asymptotic covariance function, as well as a suitable representation of the limitprocess. More importantly, we propose a new goodness-of-fit process based on a transformed correlationmatrix sequence. The new goodness-of-fit process is proved to converge weakly to the Brownian bridge.Several simulations, comparisons, and examples are presented. These results illustrate the scope of bothour theoretical findings and contributions. Our method is shown to be sensitive to detect lack of fit.Thus, it can be considered as a useful tool tool for identifying a proper time series model.

  • 817.
    Voitkane, Aija
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Innovation and Design.
    Johansson, Jeaneth
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Business Administration and Industrial Engineering.
    Malmström, Malin
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Innovation and Design.
    Wincent, Joakim
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Innovation and Design. Hanken School of Economics.
    How vague entrepreneurial identities of Swedish women entrepreneurs are performed by government financiers2018In: Women entrepreneurs and the myth of 'underperformance': a new look at women's entrepreneurship research / [ed] edited by Shumaila Yousafzai, Alain Fayolle, Adam Lindgreen, Colette Henry, Saadat Saeed, Shandana Sheikh, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2018, p. 107-124Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 818. von Below, David
    et al.
    Carlén, Björn
    Dahlqvist, Anna
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Lindman, Åsa
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Marklund, Pelle
    Otto, Vincent
    Miljö, ekonomi och politik2017Report (Other academic)
  • 819. von Below, David
    et al.
    Carlén, Björn
    Dahlqvist, Anna
    Jussila Hammes, Johanna
    Lindman, Åsa
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Marklund, Pelle
    Otto, Vincent
    Mandell, Svante
    Klimatpolitisk inventering: Del 22017Report (Other academic)
  • 820.
    Vondolia, Godwin Kofi
    et al.
    Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Norwegian College of Fishery Science, University of Tromsø.
    Eggert, Håkan
    Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg.
    Navrud, Ståle
    Department of Economics and Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences.
    Stage, Jesper
    Department of Business, Economics and Law, Mid Sweden University, Sundsvall.
    What do respondents bring to contingent valuation?: A comparison of monetary and labour payment vehicles2014In: Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering, ISSN 2160-6544, E-ISSN 2213-3437, Vol. 3, no 3, p. 253-267Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In the contingent valuation method, both the goods being valued and the payment vehicles used to value them are mostly hypothetical. However, although numerous studies have examined the impact of experience with the good on the willingness to pay, less attention has been given to experience with the payment vehicles. This paper examines how experience with payment vehicles influence responses to a contingent valuation scenario on maintaining irrigation canals in a developing country. Specifically, the paper uses a split-sample survey to investigate the effects of experience with monetary and labour payment vehicles on the acceptance of a contingent valuation scenario, protest bids and mean willingness to pay. Using convergent validity tests, we found that the experience acquired from using both monetary and labour payment vehicles reduces the asymmetries in acceptance rates. These findings suggest that experience with payment vehicles reduces time/money response asymmetries in the contingent valuation method.

  • 821.
    Väyrynen Chytiris, Ion
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences.
    Flygskatten: En studie om måluppfyllelse, kostnadseffektivitet och incitament till teknologisk utveckling2018Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    On the 1st of April 2018, the Swedish government implemented a flight tax in Sweden with the goal of reducing the Swedish aviation industries atmospheric emissions. With the help of the theory of microeconomics, earlier studies, statistics, calculations, and comparisons based on secondary data, the essay analyzes the Swedish flight tax with regards to its achievement of the environmental objectives, cost-efficiency and, incentives to technological development. The essay reaches the conclusion that the current design of Swedish flight tax does not achieve the requirements of cost-efficient regulations, does not promote further incentives to technological development beyond the already established European Union Emission Trading System and does not meet the environmental objectives nationally nor internationally.

  • 822.
    Väyrynen Chytiris, Ion
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences.
    Ström, Isak
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences.
    Flygskatten: En analys av potentiella effekter på tre svenska flygplatser2017Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    In December 2016, the Swedish government published an investigation proposal regarding a flight tax on air passenger travel in Sweden. Supported by empirical data from other EU-countries with a similar tax application, the investigation concludes inconclusive effects of a flight tax. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the potential effects of an implemented flight tax on travelers and airlines behaviour in Sweden. The Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index is applied in the thesis together with estimated demand elasticities and statistical secondary data from national and international institutions in Europe, in order to estimate how the tax would affect three swedish airports. The conclusion indicates a loss in both revenue and number of passengers for the selected airports. The differences in the size of the losses are derived by the airports separate conditions in available substitutes, geographical location and the established position on the international airport market. 

  • 823.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg.
    Pettersson, Karin
    Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology.
    Hoffstedt, Christian
    Innventia AB, SE-114 86 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Torén, Johan
    SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden.
    Kindermann, Georg
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Dotzauer, Erik
    Mälardalen University, School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology.
    Optimal localisation of second generation biofuel production in Sweden2012Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 824.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Pettersson, Karin
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg.
    Hoffstedt, Christian
    Innventia AB, SE-114 86 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Torén, Johan
    SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden.
    Kindermann, Georg
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Dotzauer, Erik
    Mälardalen University.
    Optimal localisation of second generation biofuel production: the role of process integration in system studies2013Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 825.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Pettersson, Karin
    Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology , Chalmers University of Technology.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Optimal localisation of next-generation biofuel production integrated in Swedish forest industry2015Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 826.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Pettersson, Karin
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Athanassiadis, Dimitris
    SLU Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Mossberg, Johanna
    SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden.
    Torén, Johan
    SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden.
    Schenck, Anna von
    Innventia AB, SE-114 86 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Berglin, Niklas
    Innventia AB, SE-114 86 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Optimal localisation of next generation biofuel production in Sweden - part II2013Report (Refereed)
  • 827.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Pettersson, Karin
    Chalmers University of Technology.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg.
    Mossberg, Johanna
    SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden.
    Torén, Johan
    SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden.
    Hoffstedt, Christian
    Innventia AB, SE-114 86 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Schenck, Anna von
    Innventia AB, SE-114 86 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Berglin, Niklas
    Innventia AB, SE-114 86 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Kindermann, Georg
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg.
    Optimal localisation of next generation biofuel production in Sweden2013Report (Refereed)
  • 828.
    Wheelan, Brendan
    et al.
    University of Edinburgh.
    Muchapondwa, Edwin
    School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    Enhancing consumers' voluntary use of small-scale wind turbines to generate their own electricity in South Africa2011In: Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, ISSN 1021-447X, Vol. 22, no 2, p. 13-21Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates whether households and small businesses can voluntarily take advantage of the South Africa's substantial wind resources to produce their own power from small-scale wind turbines in a viable way. The viability of small-scale wind turbines used to displace electricity consumption from the grid is assessed by means of a financial analysis based on the internal rate of return method. The benefits of small-scale wind turbines output is valued at the grid power tariff which is saved rather than at the wind feed-in tariff rate. The analysis found the small-scale wind turbines to be robustly viable in locations with a mean annual wind speed of at least 8m/s, which is only a few of the windiest locations in South Africa. The competiveness of the wind turbines is seriously challenged by the relatively low coal-based electricity tariffs in South Africa. As such, the financial analysis also considers alternative scenarios where the turbines are supported by financial mechanisms, namely: a tariff subsidy; a capital subsidy and revenue from carbon credits. The analysis reveals that a tariff subsidy of between R1.00 and R1.60/kWh or a capital subsidy of between R25.95 and R32.330/kW or a carbon credit price of between R2.135 and R3.200 will be needed to boost the viability of consumer-based small-scale wind turbines in areas with a mean annual wind speed of at least 5m/s, which is considered to be above average. Thus, there is a need for subsidizing all producers of renewable energy including those who produce it for their own consumption as they equally contribute to renewable energy expansion in the country. A tariff subsidy is however likely to be met with both political and public resistance if it means that consumers have to cross-subsidize the tariff, while the significant funds required for capital subsidies might not be freely available. Carbon credit prices have yet to mature to the required high levels. Thus, the removal of distortionary support to coal-based electricity generation might be the only currently available alternative of enhancing viability of consumer-based small-scale wind turbines.

  • 829.
    Wikström, Jakob
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences.
    Eldorado Borealis: En kostnads-nyttoanalys av ett ökat inslag av sibirisk lärk i Norrbotten2019Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    I denna uppsats har effekterna av att öka inslaget av sibirisk lärk i det norrbottniska skogslandskapet studerats. Detta har undersökts genom en kostnads-nyttoanalys där konsekvenserna av att komplementera delar av de bestånd som idag beskogas av referensträdslagen tall och gran med sibirisk lärk. För att testa resultatets känslighet har tre diskonteringsräntor tillämpats: 1,5 procent, 2 procent samt 2,5 procent. Studien fann att det är en marginell skillnad i lönsamhet när sibirisk lärk jämförs med tall, gentemot gran så var dock de ekonomiska incitamenten starka för markägare att välja sibirisk lärk vid föryngring på granmark. Det samhällsekonomiska värdet av detta projekt har i de flesta scenarion vara positivt, det är dock möjligt att projektet skulle komma att visa sig vara förlustbringande om sibirisk lärks naturvärde och dess massaved bedöms vara av lågt värde och det går därmed inte att entydigt hävda att en subventionering av sibirisk lärk är samhällsekonomiskt rationell.

  • 830.
    Wirdemo, Alexander
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences.
    The Impact of Wind Power Production on Electricity Price Volatility: A Time-Series Analysis2017Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    This study investigates how increased wind power production (in MWh) in Sweden has affected electricity price volatility in the Nordic wholesale electricity exchange Nord Pool. The importance and growth of wind power have emerged in light of its low marginal costs of production and it being a renewable, zero-carbon electricity generation source. Previous studies have found that while increased wind power production generally lowers the average wholesale price of electricity, volatility tends to increase due to the intermittent character of wind power production. By using daily price and wind power data from the Nordic exchange market Nord Pool during the period 2015-2017, a GARCH model was used to investigate how wind power has affected price volatility. The results indicate that electricity price volatility increases in the long run when wind power production increases. The reasons behind this could be found in the inflexibility of baseload power production. However, the Swedish electric power system also benefits from a high degree of flexibility due to the presence of hydropower reservoirs. 

  • 831.
    Wollni, Meike
    et al.
    Georg-August-University of Goettingen.
    Andersson, Camilla
    Georg-August-University of Goettingen.
    Spatial patterns of organic agriculture adoption: Evidence from Honduras2014In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 97, p. 120-128Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 832.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    A horizontal merger in the iron ore industry: an event study approach2007In: Resources policy, ISSN 0301-4207, E-ISSN 1873-7641, Vol. 32, no 4, p. 191-204Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse the competitive and efficiency impacts of a large merger in the world iron ore industry, using an event study approach. This method builds on an analysis of stock market reactions of the merging firms as well as close rivals at the time of the merger announcement. The event study method allows for the possibility to assess both the motivations behind as well as the welfare effects of the merger. The event study results for the merger announcement of Rio Tinto and North Ltd. show that, according to the market reactions, the main motive behind the merger was either the market power or the efficiency hypothesis. When adjusting the analysis to include several information releases about the merger, the overall result indicates that efficiency improvements were the predominant motives behind the merger. Thus, the event study results suggest that there are positive welfare effects to expect and the European Commission's decision to allow the merger is supported.

  • 833.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    An analysis of iron ore prices during the latest commodity boom2018In: Mineral Economics, ISSN 2191-2203, E-ISSN 2191-2211, Vol. 31, no 1-2, p. 203-216Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper performs a quantitative analysis of iron ore prices, and is an extension of Wårell (2014), which analyzed the change in iron ore pricing regime on iron ore prices using data from 2003 until September 2012. However, considering that the iron ore market still was characterized by surging prices in 2012, it is of interest to see if the same conclusions hold today when the latest commodity boom has come to an end. The quantitative analysis uses monthly data between January 2003 and June 2017, and performs both statistical tests for structural breaks and a reduced price regression of the most important factors for iron ore prices during the time period. The overall results indicate that the change in pricing regime does not have a significant impact on the iron ore prices when extending the time period; rather, it is the end of the commodity boom in 2014 that is picked up as a structural break in the price series. Furthermore, results regarding whether the variables are cointegrated are more inconclusive when analyzing the entire commodity boom. However, the result that GDP growth in China has had the strongest impact on iron ore prices is though robust when extending the time period. To conclude, even though the commodity boom now has come to an end the developments in China still seems to be the most influential factor determining international iron ore prices.

  • 834.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Defining geographic coal markets using price data and shipments data2005In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 33, no 17, p. 2216-2230Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Given the importance of coal in world energy supply an analysis of the relevant geographic market is essential for consumers, producers, as well as for competition policy. The purpose of this paper is to define the relevant economic market for steam and coking coal, and to test the hypothesis of single world markets for these coal products. Methodologically the paper relies on two different tests for defining markets, using both shipments data and price data. The results from both methods point in the same direction. In the case of coking coal the results indicate that the market is essentially global in scope, and also that the market has become more integrated over time. The results for steam coal show that the market is more regional in scope, and there exist no clear tendencies of increased integration over time. One policy implication of the finding that the steam coal market is more regional in scope, and thus that the market boundary is smaller than if the market would have been international, is that a merger and acquisition in this market likely would have been of a more concern for antitrust authorities than the same activity on the coking coal market.

  • 835.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Geographic market delineation: the case of internationally traded coal2003Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis of the existence of a world market for the international coal industry, and to investigate whether or not the industry has experienced increased market integration over time. The study consists of an introductory part and two self- contained papers where two different methods for market delineation are applied, evaluated and compared. Paper [1] uses a cointegration approach to analyze market integration for internationally traded coal, and investigate whether the industry has experienced increased market integration over time. Both the coking coal and the steam coal market show evidence of global market integration, as demonstrated by the presence of a stable long run cointegrating relationship. This supports the hypothesis of a globally integrated market. The long run price correlation is higher for steam coal than for coking coal, but the short run error correction estimates indicate a faster adjustment towards the long run equilibrium level for coking coal than for steam coal. Thus, the overall conclusion on which of the two markets that is more integrated than the other is indecisive. When analyzing market integration over time it is not possible to confirm cointegration in the 1990s for steam coal, and thus the conclusion of a single economic market cannot be maintained. Regarding coking coal, there are tendencies of increased integration given the faster adjustment to the long run equilibrium level in the 1990s. Paper [2] aims at delineating the relevant economic market for steam coal and coking coal by using shipments data (the so-called Elzinga-Hogarty method), and to test the hypothesis of a single world market for coal. Regarding coking coal the results indicate that the market is essentially global in scope, and also that the market has become more integrated over time. The results for steam coal show that these markets are more regional in scope, and there exist no clear tendencies of increased integration over time. In order to scrutinize the Elzinga-Hogarty method in more detail, some of the criticism towards the method is addressed empirically. The overall conclusion is that the method is not well equipped to detect potential market participation or potential anticompetitive behavior within a defined area (especially when there are large differences in the size of the market participants). Still, the Elzinga-Hogarty method is useful as a first step in market delineation analysis as it contributes to a good understanding of the prevailing product flow patterns. The main conclusion of the study is that the market for internationally trade coal is integrated globally. However, the levels of market integration as well as the development over time differ between the steam coal and the coking coal markets. The results point towards a more integrated market for coking coal than for steam coal. However, this finding does not have to imply that competition in the steam coal market is restrained. The methods applied in this study are useful for delineating economic markets, but in order to detect anticompetitive behaviour complementary information providing a more detailed analysis of the specific industry is needed.

  • 836.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Integration of international coal markets: an econometric analysis2008In: Enerday - Conference of Energy Economics and Technology, 2008Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The overall purpose of this paper has been to test the hypothesis of steam and coking coal markets being integrated into global markets. This has been conducted by analysing whether or not the quarterly steam and coking coal prices in Europe and Japan between 1980 and 2006 are cointegrated. The results for the entire time period show that neither the steam or coking coal markets are cointegrated, and thus we cannot conclude that the price series in Europe and Japan follow a long-run trend. This result does not confirm the existence of a world market for steam and coking coal, rather it indicates that these coal markets are separated into two regional markets. The finding of regional markets is in conflict with the finding in Wårell (2006), who found cointegrated steam and coking coal prices between 1980 and 2000. Before concluding that the steam and coking coal markets are regional in scope, cointegration analysis has also been performed for the separated time series 1980-1999 and 2000-2006. The results for the steam coal market shows that cointegration of the price series can be confirmed for the time period 1980-1999, but not for the period 2000-2006. The finding that the steam coal market cannot be considered cointegrated 2000-2006, i.e., that the market has become more regional in scope has important policy implications. Firstly, a more regional market implies that the competitive situation becomes different compared to a world market. Secondly, in order to identify any potential security of supply issue for coal, it is important to know whether the market is regional or world-wide.

  • 837.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Market integration and merger assessments in the minerals industries2007Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of an introductory part and five self-contained papers dealing with market definitions and economic assessments of horizontal mergers in the minerals industries world-wide. Paper I analyses the relevant geographic market for internationally traded steam and coking coal using Cointegration and Error Correction models. Quarterly price series data between 1980 and 2000, in the two dominating regions Europe and Japan, are used. The results show that for both markets the null hypothesis of the existence of a world market cannot be rejected, as demonstrated by the long- run cointegrating relationship between the price series. However, the short- run adjustments to the long-run levels indicate a faster adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium for coking coal than for steam coal. In Paper II the relevant economic markets for steam and coking coal are also in focus, and this paper applies two different tests using shipments data and price data, respectively. The results from both methods point in the same direction. In the case of coking coal the results indicate that the market is essentially global in scope, and also that the market has become more integrated over time. The results for steam coal show that the market is more regional in scope, and there exist no clear tendencies of increased integration over time. One policy implication of the finding that the steam coal market is more regional in scope, is that a merger in this market would likely be of more concern for antitrust authorities than the same activity in the coking coal market. Paper III estimates the price and welfare effects from the iron ore mergers between Rio Tinto and North Ltd in 2000, and CVRD and Caemi in 2001. The analyses are conducted using a merger simulation model that, based on the pre-merger situation, estimates the post-merger outcome. A standard Cournot framework model assuming homogenous product and that firms set quantities have been applied. The results from the merger simulations show that the estimated prices increases due to the mergers are about 6% and 7%, respectively. In both merger simulations the overall welfare effect is estimated to be negative, something which thus does not support the European Commission's decisions to allow these mergers. However, none of the simulations did take into account possible cost efficiencies resulting from the mergers. Paper IV also applies merger simulations to the same mergers as in Paper III. However, the merger model in this paper (PCAIDS) assumes that the product is differentiated and that the firms' strategic variable is price. The increases in the estimated market-weighted average price are 2.6% and 4.6%, respectively. When removing Caemi's Canadian asset, which is the Commission's verdict for allowing the merger, the estimated market price following the CVRD-Caemi merger decreases to about 3%. Overall the results support the Commission's decisions regarding both merger cases, and show that merger simulations of price effects can be a valuable tool in merger assessments. Finally, Paper V applies an event study to the Rio Tinto and North Ltd merger in order to analyse the competitive and efficiency impacts of the merger, and to investigate the main motivation behind the merger. The event study method analyses stock market reactions of the merging firms and close rivals at the time of the merger announcement. These reactions indicate whether the merger has had a positive or negative impact on the value of the firms, information that in turn can be used to assess the overall efficiency and welfare effects of the merger. The main result shows that efficiency improvements were the predominant motive behind the merger. This suggests that there are positive welfare effects to expect and the Commission's decision to allow the merger is supported. An overall conclusion from this thesis is that all the quantitative economic techniques that have been applied can provide information that is valuable in a comprehensive merger assessment study, but all methods need to be complemented by supplementary (often qualitative) analyses.

  • 838.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Market integration in the international coal industry: a cointegration approach2006In: Energy Journal, ISSN 0195-6574, E-ISSN 1944-9089, Vol. 27, no 1, p. 99-118Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis of the existence of a single economic market for the international coal industry, separated for coking and steam coal, and lo investigate market integration over time. This has been conducted by applying cointegration and error-correction models on quarterly price series data in Europe and Japan over the time period 1980-2000. Both the coking and the steam coal markets show evidence of global market integration, as demonstrated by the stable long-run cointegrating relationship between the respective price series in different world regions. This supports the hypothesis of a globally integrated market. However, when analyzing market integration over time it is not possible to confirm cointegration in the 1990s for steam coal. Thus, compared to the coking coal market, the steam coal market looks somewhat less global in scope.

  • 839.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Quantitative analysis of iron ore prices2013In: Aachen International Mining Symposia: 4th International Conference: Mineral Resources and Mine Development, 2013, p. 531-546Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 840.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    The effect of a change in pricing regime on iron ore prices2014In: Resources policy, ISSN 0301-4207, E-ISSN 1873-7641, Vol. 41, p. 16-22Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper performs a quantitative analysis of iron ore prices. The analysis will focus on two general issues. First, are prices more volatile before or after the introduction of spot market pricing in 2008/2009? Second, has the change in pricing regime had a significant effect on the iron ore price? The quantitative analysis uses monthly data between January 2003 and August 2012. The overall results show that when including transportation costs to the price series we do not find that iron ore prices are more volatile after the introduction of spot market pricing. Furthermore, the change in pricing regime does not have a significant impact on the iron ore price in the econometric model. Iron ore prices, GDP growth in China, and the freight rates are found to be cointegrated (when regressed with a market dummy variable), and the short run results indicates that GDP growth in China has the strongest impact on the iron ore price series for the period tested.

  • 841.
    Wårell, Linda
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Trends and developments in long-term steel demand: The intensity-of-use hypothesis revisited2014In: Resources policy, ISSN 0301-4207, E-ISSN 1873-7641, Vol. 39, no 1, p. 134-143Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Considering the past few years rapid increase in the demand for minerals and metals, mainly stemming from the strong economic growth in China and India, an understanding of the historical development of steel demand is of importance. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the trends and developments of steel consumption in the world by applying the so-called Intensity-of-Use (IoU) method. The empirical analysis is performed using steel consumption and GDP (in constant 2005 US Dollars) data for 61 countries over 42 years. The results show that the IoU hypothesis does not hold for the whole panel, but when dividing the sample into three income groups we find that the IoU hypothesis holds for the Middle income group, indicating that the countries in this income group have experienced the move from an industrialization phase towards a more service based economy in the time period investigated. However, when taking into account time series properties and applying panel unit root tests, the variables are confirmed as non-stationary. A panel cointegration test shows further that the variables are cointegrated, and an ECM model has been performed to test the IoU hypothesis. The results confirm that the IoU hypothesis holds for the Middle income group. Regarding the estimated turning point this is identified at a GDP per capita level of about 19,000 US. There are thus many countries that are far from the level of GDP per capita when steel IoU starts to decline. However, conclusions regarding the turning point should be made with caution.

  • 842.
    Wårell, Linda
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Henriksson, Eva
    Program for improving energy efficiency in Swedish base industries: impact on electricty demand2008In: Bridging Energy Supply and Demand: Logistics, Competition and Environment: 31st IAEE International Conference, Istanbul, Turkey, June 18 - 20, 2008, IAEE , 2008Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 843.
    Wårell, Linda
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Häggquist, Elisabeth
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Defining Mineral Deposits of National Interest: The Case of Sweden2016In: European Geologist Magazine, ISSN 1028-267X, no 41, p. 35-37Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The exploitation of minerals in Europe is a necessary activity for securing continued growth and development of the European society. In order to ensure this, it is vital that access to mineral deposits is safeguarded, which is why there is currently an increased focus on “defining mineral deposits of public importance” in Europe. However, there are a number of countries that have already defined mineral deposits of public interest on a national level, for example Sweden. The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the definition of mineral deposits of national interest in Sweden. The paper further aims at discussing the value of geological information in this process.

  • 844.
    Wårell, Linda
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Krook-Riekkola, Anna
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics, Energy Science.
    Resource efficiency in a district heating context2016In: Meeting Sweden's current and future energy challenges, Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2016, Luleå: Luleå tekniska universitet, 2016Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 845.
    Wårell, Linda
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Lundmark, Robert
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Price effects of mergers in natural resources industries2008In: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, ISSN 0921-3449, E-ISSN 1879-0658, Vol. 53, no 1-2, p. 57-69Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate and analyse the price and welfare effects from the mergers between Rio Tinto and North Ltd. in 2000, and CVRD and Caemi in 2001. The analyses are conducted using a merger simulation model that, based on the pre-merger situation estimates the post-merger outcome. This paper applies a standard Cournot framework model where each firm produces a single homogenous product, and the firms' strategic variable is quantities. The results from the merger simulation regarding the Rio Tinto/North Ltd. merger show that the merged firm has a combined market share of almost 20%. The estimated price increase due to the merger is 5.8%. Regarding the CVRD/Caemi merger the initial concentration in the pre-merger market is substantially larger than the year before, and the results indicate that the estimated price effect from the merger is more significant, almost 7%. Regarding the effect of prices on resource extraction, the estimated higher price of iron ore after the merger implies that substitution towards steel scrap in the steel-making process increases. This finding implies that resource extraction possibly has been lower than what might have been the case without the merger. Note that this effect is analysed as ceteris paribus, i.e., other impacts on iron ore demand and prices than the specific mergers have not been considered. In both merger simulations the overall welfare effect is estimated to be negative, something which thus does not support the European Commission's decisions to allow these mergers. However, none of the simulations did take into account possible cost efficiencies resulting from the mergers.

  • 846.
    Wårell, Linda
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Olsson, Anna
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Trends and developments in the intensity of steel use: an econometric analysis2009In: 8th International Conference on Acid Rock Drainage (ICARD) and Securing the Future: Mining, Metals & the Environment in a Sustainable Society 2009: Skelleftea, Sweden, 22 - 26 June 2009, Red Hook, NY: Curran Associates, Inc., 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 847.
    Wårell, Linda
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Sundqvist, Thomas
    Swedish Competition Authority.
    Market opening in local district heating networks2009In: Energy, policies and technologies for sustainable economies: executive summaries of the 10th IAEE European Conference 7-10 September 2009 in Vienna, Austria / [ed] Reinhard Haas, Cleveland, 2009Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 848.
    Wårell, Linda
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Söderholm, Patrik
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Tredjepartstillträde till fjärrvärmenäten i tre svenska kommuner: Underlagsrapport till betänkandet "Fjärrvärme i konkurrens" (SOU 2011:44)2011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I ljuset av den kritik mot konkurrenssituationen på fjärrvärmemarknaderna som framfördes under 2009 tillsattes en utredning för att närmare analysera förutsättningarna för ett lagstadgat TPA till fjärrvärmenäten, med syftet att stärka kundernas ställning samt att åstadkomma en effektivare värmemarknad med lägre fjärrvärmepriser och en förbättrad miljö. Utredaren ska belysa för- och nackdelar samt göra en bedömning av förutsättningarna för ett lagstadgat tredjepartstillträde, och lämna förslag till ett regelverk för tredjepartstillträde samt vid behov förslag till finansiering. En viktig del av uppdraget är att utreda förutsättningarna för TPA i olika kommuner i Sverige, eftersom alla fjärrvärmenät i Sverige utgör en egen marknad och förhållandena/förutsättningarna för konkurrens är begränsade till den geografiskt definierade marknaden (fjärrvärmenätet). Föreliggande rapport utgör ett underlag till utredningen med syfte att analysera förutsättningarna för TPA i tre svenska kommuner; Göteborg, Sundsvall och Ronneby. Syftet är att därmed analysera vad TPA kan åstadkomma i de tre kommunerna. För att få en så god bild av de utvalda fjärrvärmeverksamheterna som möjligt, samt undersöka hur dessa skulle påverkas av införandet av TPA, har underlaget till rapporten till stor del insamlats via personliga intervjuer med företrädare för fjärrvärmeverksamheterna i de respektive kommunerna. En viktig del av underlagsrapporten är även att identifiera kritiska frågor som kommer att aktualiseras och behöva hanteras vid ett införande av TPA. Möjliga effekter på prisbildning samt på de viktigaste samhällsekonomiska kostnaderna och intäkterna av ett TPA införande kommer också att behandlas. Avslutningsvis diskuteras frågan om vilken roll miljöhänsyn kan – och bör – spela i TPA-sammanhang. Analysen kommer att exemplifieras utifrån de tre kommun-erna och i förekommande fall belyser vi även viktiga skillnader och likheter mellan olika typer av TPA-modeller. En betydande del av arbetet har varit att identifiera kritiska frågor som är viktiga att behandla innan införandet av TPA. Dessa kritiska frågor har bl.a. behandlat; särskiljning av produktion och distribution, tillgång till fjärrvärmenätet och betydelsen av geografisk lokalisering, investeringar och incitament, ansvarsfrågan vid olyckor och driftsstopp och reserv-, spets- och balansansvar. Det är dock viktigt att betona att det finns i princip inga tekniska begränsningar för att lösa många av de problem som uppstår vid införande av TPA, men att en separation av produktions- och distributionsverksamheterna kommer att medföra nya typer av kostnader. Rapporten har även diskuterat möjliga effekter på fjärrvärmepriserna och ett viktigt budskap är att dessa effekter med stor sannolikhet kommer att skilja sig åt mellan olika delar av landet. Den totala effekten på det pris som kunderna betalar är därmed osäker, och denna osäkerhet beror på svårigheterna att dels fastställa vilket referensalternativ vi jämför med och dels vilken konkurrensutsättning som kommer att ske i praktiken. Sammantaget pekar denna genomgång på att frågan om effekterna av TPA på fjärrvärmepriserna i hög grad är en öppen fråga, och beror på hur prisbildningen fungerar idag i respektive kommun eller region samt på de dynamiska effekter som ett öppnande av näten medför. Rapporten har även analyserat de viktigaste samhällsekonomiska effekterna av TPA. En övergripande bedömning utifrån analysen i detta avsnitt är att införande av ett lagstadgat (landsomfattande) TPA kan medföra få positiva effekter på konkurrensen och samtidigt försvåra möjligheterna till att driva den integrerade fjärrvärmeverksamheten på ett kostnadseffektivt sätt. Även om nätverken öppnas upp för konkurrens är det sannolikt att ett företag fortfarande skulle vara dominant på många av de lokala marknaderna och därigenom skulle inte konkurrenseffekterna bli de önskade. Fjärrvärmeverksamhetens olika delar (produktion och distribution) är beroende av varandra i högre utsträckning än på t.ex. elmarknaden. Detta innebär att förändringar i produktionssammansättningen kan få relativt stora konsekvenser för systemoptimeringen i hela nätverket. Gällande effekterna av TPA på miljön är vår övergripande bedömning att det är viktigt att särskilja på miljöpolitikens och konkurrenspolitikens olika målsättningar, samt (vid behov) utforma separata styrmedel för vart och ett av dessa mål. TPA bör t.ex. i första hand ses som ett möjligt verktyg för att hantera problemet med ofullständig konkurrens, och inte som ett explicit medel för att t.ex. introducera mer industriell spillvärme av miljö- och energieffektiviseringsskäl och/eller reducera utsläppen av koldioxid genom reducerad oljeanvändning. Ett förslag som utredningen bör förhålla sig till är att införa särredovisning, både av nät- och producentverksamheterna, men även redovisning av transaktioner och kostnader för produktionsanläggningarna i fjärrvärmenätet. Detta har till viss del införts redan idag, men enligt Energimarknadsinspektionen krävs ytterligare uppgifter för att underlätta kunder och myndigheters möjlighet att upptäcka prisdiskriminering och korssubventionering. För att korssubventionering skall upptäckas krävs att skäliga kostnadsnivåer för företagets produk-tionsanläggningar samt över fjärrvärmeföretagets övriga verksamheter redovisas. Ytterligare en viktig utveckling för fjärrvärmemarknaden är att finna en marknadslösning (alternativt styrmedel) som verkar för fler sammankopplingar av fjärrvärmeverksamheter. Detta är viktigt av flertalet skäl; dels ökar det marknadernas storlek, vilket innebär att det även möjliggör för en ökad konkurrens både i producent- och distributionsledet, och dels skapar det ett större utrymme för spillvärme i fjärrvärmesystemet.

  • 849.
    Wårell, Linda
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Business Administration, Technology and Social Sciences, Social Sciences.
    Söderholm, Patrik
    Delsing, Jerker
    Luleå University of Technology, Department of Computer Science, Electrical and Space Engineering, Embedded Internet Systems Lab.
    Brännhett om fjärrvärmen i Sverige: ekonomiska och tekniska förutsättningar för tredjepartstillträde på den svenska fjärrvärmemarknaden2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vad är effekterna av att öppna för konkurrens på de separata fjärrvärmenätverken? Läs här om förutsättningarna för ett utökat så kallat tredjepartstillträde på den svenska fjärrvärmemarknaden. Detta innebär att en tredje part, utöver fjärrvärmeleverantören och kunden, får tillträde till fjärrvärmenätet och på så sätt får avsättning för sin värme. Rapporten redovisar för och nackdelar med fyra möjliga utvecklingsvägar för framtida tredjepartstillträde på den svenska fjärrvärmemarknaden: reglerat tredjepartstillträde, förhandlat tredjepartstillträde, singlebuyer modellen samt utökat producentsamarbete. Rapporten ger också kunskap om en rad faktorer som är viktiga för att förstå de samhällsekonomiska effekterna, inte minst den trade-off som finns mellan ökad konkurrens genom ökat tillträde och att säkerställa en kostnadseffektiv drift av fjärrvärmenätet och interaktionen med elproduktionen.

  • 850.
    Zhao, Xu
    et al.
    China University of Petroleum, Changping, Beijing, China.
    Dahl, Carol
    Mineral and Energy Economics Program, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States.
    Luo, Dongkun
    China University of Petroleum, Changping, Beijing, China.
    How OECD countries subsidize oil and natural gas producers and modeling the consequences: A review2019In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 104, p. 111-126Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Since fossil fuel subsidies entail significant economic, fiscal, social and environmental costs, more and more attention is being paid to phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. The OECD has recently completed a report quantifying the amount of both producer and consumer subsidies for their member countries, and some work has been implemented on analyzing the effects of consumer subsidy removal. However, there is hardly any investigation of the consequences of producer subsidies. In this paper, we focus on oil and gas producer subsidies of OECD countries and their effects. First, we describe the transfer mechanisms indicated by the OECD report for producer subsidies. In order to recommend models to analyze the influence of removing producer subsidies, we review upstream oil and gas models and provide a taxonomy for them. From them we recommend the most appropriate models for each type of producer subsidy to model upstream decision making. Our contribution in this paper is to categorize the upstream models we have found, compare their main features, as well as recommending best in class models for analyzing the effects of each type of upstream producer subsidy.

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