Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a key component for the defossilization of the aviation sector. The economic feasibility of SAF production is typically evaluated through techno-economic assessments (TEA), with the Minimum Jet Fuel Selling Price (MJSP) serving as the key economic performance indicator. Comparing MJSP values across different SAF pathways is challenging and potentially misleading due to differences in modelling assumptions, estimation methods for key variables, and their underlying relationships. This study aims to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the economic feasibility of four prominent SAF pathways: Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Pyrolysis-to-Jet (PTJ), Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and Fischer-Tropsch (FT). We employed qualitative and quantitative methods, including meta-analysis and variable harmonization, to analyze a wide range of TEA studies from the literature and investigate the factors contributing to MJSP variation for these pathways. Our findings reveal that feedstock cost is a primary driver of MJSP variability across all pathways. Moreover, regression and harmonization analyses uncovered complex interdependencies among economic variables often underexplored in individual TEAs. Key sources of MJSP variability include methodological differences in by-product credit valuation, process design choices, capital cost estimation approaches, and financial assumptions. Recognizing and addressing these factors offers strategic opportunities to improve the techno-economic performance and comparability of SAF pathways. Notably, the PTJ pathway emerged as a promising alternative for non-food feedstocks, and all pathways demonstrated improved economic outcomes when integrated with existing industrial infrastructure. The analytical findings of this study provide a robust empirical foundation that can be leveraged by future studies aimed at policy analysis, as well as for project budgeting and investment decisions in sustainable aviation fuels. 

Demand for biofuels will likely increase, driven by intensifying obligations to decarbonize aviation and maritime sectors. Sustainable biomass is a finite resource, and the forest harvesting level is a topic of ongoing discussions, in relation to biodiversity preservation and the short-term role of forests as carbon sinks. State-of-the-art technologies for converting lignocellulosic feedstock into transportation biofuels achieves a carbon utilization rate ranging from 25% to 50%. Mature technologies like second-generation ethanol and gasification-based processes tend to fall toward the lower end of this spectrum. This study explores how electrification can enhance the carbon efficiency of biorefinery concepts and investigates its impact on energy, economics and greenhouse gas emissions. Results show that electrification increases carbon efficiency from 28% to 123% for gasification processes, from 28% to 45% for second-generation ethanol, and from 50% to 65% for direct liquefaction processes. Biofuels are produced to a cost range 60–140 EUR/MWh-biofuel, depending on the chosen technology pathway, feedstock and electricity prices. Notably, production in electrified biorefineries proves cost-competitive when compared to pure electrofuel (E-fuels) tracks. Depending on the selected technology pathway and the extent of electrification, a reduction in GHG emissions ranging from 75% to 98% is achievable, particularly when powered by a low-carbon electricity mix.

Kraft lignin, a by-product from the production of pulp, is currently incinerated in the recovery boiler during the chemical recovery cycle, generating valuable bioenergy and recycling inorganic chemicals to the pulping process operation. Removing lignin from the black liquor or its gasification lowers the recovery boiler load enabling increased pulp production. During the past ten years, lignin separation technologies have emerged and the interest of the research community to valorize this underutilized resource has been invigorated. The aim of this Review is to give (1) a dedicated overview of the kraft process with a focus on the lignin, (2) an overview of applications that are being developed, and (3) a techno-economic and life cycle asseeements of value chains from black liquor to different products. Overall, it is anticipated that this effort will inspire further work for developing and using kraft lignin as a commodity raw material for new applications undeniably promoting pivotal global sustainability concerns.

Mitigating the climate impact from aviation remains one of the tougher challenges in adapting society to fulfill stated climate targets. Long-range aviation cannot be electrified for the foreseeable future and the effects of combusting fuel at high altitude increase the climate impact compared to emissions of green-house gasses only, which further limits the range of sustainable fuel alternatives. We investigate seven different pathways for producing aviation biofuels coupled with either bio-energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS), or bio-energy carbon capture and utilization (BECCU). Both options allow for increased efficiency regarding utilization of feedstock carbon. Our analysis uses process-level carbon- and energy balances, with carbon efficiency, climate impact and levelized cost of production (LCOP) as primary performance indicators.

The results show that CCS can achieve a negative carbon footprint for four out of the seven pathways, at a lower cost of GHG reduction than the base process option. Conversely, as a consequence of the electricity-intensive CO₂ upgrading process, the CCU option shows less encouraging results with higher production costs, carbon footprints and costs of GHG reduction. Overall, pathways with large amounts of vented CO₂, e.g., gasification of black liquor or bark, as well as fermentation of forest residues, reach a low GHG reduction cost for the CCS option. These are also pathways with a larger feedstock and corresponding production potential. Our results enable a differentiated comparison of the suitability of various alternatives for BECCS or BECCU in combination with aviation biofuel production. By quantifying the relative strengths and weaknesses of BECCS and BECCU and by highlighting cost, climate and carbon-efficient pathways, these results can be a source of support for both policymakers and the industry.

The aim of this work was to develop a model of an integrated biomass-to-liquid process, consisting of hydrothermal liquefaction, evaporation, gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, using lignocellulosic forest residues as feedstock, to produce hydrocarbons suitable for upgrading to drop-in biofuels. The energy, mass and carbon efficiencies obtained were 40%, 20% and 32%, respectively. The Fischer-Tropsch crude carbon chain length distribution peaked at carbon chain length 10 with a heavy right tail , which is beneficial for upgrading the Fischer-Tropsch crude to jet fuel. Life cycle assessment was performed for two potential production plants at different sites in Sweden (one in northern Sweden and the other in southern Sweden). Compared with the fossil fuel comparator in the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive (II), the reduction in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions was 85–95% for the Fischer-Tropsch crude produced in northern Sweden and 92–97% for that produced in southern Sweden, depending on differences in the transportation distance and feedstock used.

As fossil-reliant industries turn to sustainable biomass for energy and material supply, the competition for biogenic carbon is expected to intensify. Using process level carbon and energy balance models, this paper shows how the capture of residual CO2 in conjunction with either permanent storage (CCS) or biofuel production (CCU) benefits fourteen largely residue-based biofuel production pathways. With a few noteworthy exceptions, most pathways have low carbon utilization efficiencies (30–40%) without CCS/U. CCS can double these numbers and deliver negative emission biofuels with GHG footprints below −50 g CO2 eq./MJ for several pathways. Compared to CCS with no revenue from CO2 sequestration, CCU can offer the same efficiency gains at roughly two-third the biofuel production cost (e.g., 99 EUR/MWh vs. 162 EUR/MWh) but the GHG reduction relative to fossil fuels is significantly smaller (18 g CO2 eq./MJ vs. −99 g CO2 eq./MJ). From a combined carbon, cost and climate perspective, although commercial pathways deliver the cheapest biofuels, it is the emerging pathways that provide large-scale carbon-efficient GHG reductions. There is thus some tension between alternatives that are societally best and those that are economically most interesting for investors. Biofuel pathways vent CO2 in both concentrated and dilute streams Capturing both provides the best environomic outcomes. Existing pathways that can deliver low-cost GHG reductions but generate relatively small quantities of CO2 are unlikely to be able to finance the transport infrastructure required for transformative bio-CCS deployment. CCS and CCU are accordingly important tools for simultaneously reducing biogenic carbon wastage and GHG emissions, but to unlock their full benefits in a cost-effective manner, emerging biofuel technology based on the gasification and hydrotreatment of forest residues need to be commercially deployed imminently.

The introduction of alkali catalyst during hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) improves conversion and allows the aqueous liquid product to be used as gasification feedstock. This study investigates the effect of reaction temperature (240–300°C), sawdust mass fraction (9.1–25%) and reaction time (0–60 min) during K₂CO₃-catalytic HTL of pine sawdust. The highest biomass conversion (75.2% carbon conversion and 83.0% mass conversion) was achieved at a reaction temperature of 270°C, 9.1% sawdust mass fraction and 30 min reaction time; meanwhile, the maximum aqueous product (AP) yield (69.0% carbon yield and 73.5% mass yield) was found at a reaction temperature of 300°C, 9.1% sawdust mass fraction and 60 min reaction time. Based on the main experimental results, models for carbon and mass yields of the products were developed according to face-centered central composite design using response surface methodology. Biomass conversion and product yields had a positive correlation with reaction temperature and reaction time, while they had an inverse correlation with sawdust mass fraction. Further investigation of the effects of biomass/water and biomass/K₂CO₃ ratios revealed that both high water loading and high K₂CO₃ loading enhanced conversion and AP yield.

Drop-in biofuels from forest by-products such as black liquor can help deliver deep reductions in transport greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels in our vehicle fleet. Black liquor is produced at pulp mills that can increase their pulping capacity by upgrading some of it to drop-in biofuels but this is not well-studied. We evaluate the techno-economic and greenhouse gas performance of five drop-in biofuel pathways based on BL lignin separation with hydrotreatment or black liquor gasification with catalytic synthesis. We also assess how integrated biofuel production impacts different types of pulp mills and a petroleum refinery by using energy and material balances assembled from experimental data supplemented by expert input. Our results indicate that drop-in biofuels from black liquor part-streams can be produced for ~80 EUR₂₀₁₇/MWh, which puts black liquor on the same footing (or better) as comparable forest residue-based alternatives. The best pathways in both production routes have comparable costs and their principal biofuel products (petrol for black liquor gasification and diesel for lignin hydrotreatment) complement each other. All pathways surpass European Union’s sustainability criteria for greenhouse gas savings from new plants. Supplementing black liquor with pyrolysis oil or electrolysis hydrogen can improve biofuel production potentials and feedstock diversity, but better economic performance does not accompany these benefits. Fossil hydrogen represents the cheaper option for lignin hydrotreatment by some margin, but greenhouse gas savings from renewable hydrogen are nearly twice as great. Research on lignin upgrading in industrial conditions is recommended for reducing the presently significant performance uncertainties.

Forest-based biofuels are strategically important in forest-rich countries like Sweden but the technical performance of several promising production pathways is poorly documented. This study examines product yields and energy efficiencies in six commercially relevant forest-based “drop-in” and “high blend” biofuel production pathways by developing detailed spreadsheet energy balance models. The models are in turn based on pilot-scale performance data from the literature, supplemented with input from technology developers and experts. In most pathways, biofuel production is integrated with a market pulp mill and/or a crude oil refinery. Initial conversion is by pyrolysis, gasification or lignin depolymerization and intermediate products are upgraded by hydrotreatment or catalytic synthesis.

While lignin oil (LO) hydrodeoxygenation had the highest expanded system efficiency, considerable uncertainty surrounds product yields owing to absence of suitable experimental data on LO upgrading. Co-feeding vacuum gas oil and fast pyrolysis oil in a fluidized catalytic cracker has a complex and uncertain effect on fossil yields, which requires further investigation. Co-locating bio-oil hydrotreatment at the refinery improves heat utilization, leading to higher system efficiencies. Explicit consideration of mill type and energy requirements is required to avoid performance misestimation as an assumption of energy surplus can confer a definite advantage.

Promoting the deployment of forest-based drop-in and high blend biofuels is considered strategically important in Sweden but many aspects of the overall performance of the foremost production technologies are as yet unexamined. This paper evaluates the technology maturity, profitability, investment requirements, GHG performance and Swedish biofuel production potential of six commercially interesting forest-based biofuel production pathways.

Significant heterogeneity in technology maturity was observed. Lack of technical demonstration in industrially representative scales renders the liquefaction-hydrotreatment route for drop-in biofuels less mature than its gasification-catalytic upgrading counterpart. It is a paradox that short-term priority being accorded to pathways with the lowest technology maturity. Nth-of-a-kind investments in (a) gasification-based methanol, (b) hydropyrolysis-based petrol/diesel, and (c) lignin depolymerization-based petrol/diesel were profitable for a range of plant sizes. The profitability of pulp mill-integrated small gasification units (<100 MW) goes against the common perception of gasification being economically feasible only in large scales. New low-cost options for debottlenecking production at recovery boiler-limited kraft mills appear worth investigating. GHG emission reductions ranged from 66 to 95%; a penalty was incurred for high consumption of natural gas-based hydrogen. Swedish biofuel production potentials ranged from 4 to 27 TWh/y but a more feasible upper limit is 12–15 TWh/y.