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Grafström, J. (2026). A Silent Transition: Growth with Less Environmental Weight. In: Magnus Henrekson; Christian Sandström; Mikael Stenkula (Ed.), A Green Entrepreneurial State?: Exploring the Pitfalls of Green Deals (pp. 259-271). Springer, 49
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Silent Transition: Growth with Less Environmental Weight
2026 (English)In: A Green Entrepreneurial State?: Exploring the Pitfalls of Green Deals / [ed] Magnus Henrekson; Christian Sandström; Mikael Stenkula, Springer , 2026, Vol. 49, p. 259-271Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Across Europe, environmental performance has improved alongside economic expansion. Since 1990, most EU countries have seen a steady decline in territorial CO2 emissions, improved energy-efficiency, and reductions in pollution, enabled by common instruments such as emissions trading, product regulations, and renewable energy targets. While the broad pattern is visible across member states, some cases demonstrate especially sustained and measurable decoupling. Sweden offers one such example. Between 1990 and 2023, the country reduced territorial CO2 emissions by 38% while GDP more than doubled. Air pollutants fell across nearly all tracked categories, energy intensity declined, and hazardous chemical use decreased despite rising population and output. These outcomes emerged gradually—not through disruption or centralized intervention, but through quiet steps. This essay examines how those long-term shifts unfolded. It draws on empirical indicators of emissions, energy use, and resource flows to illustrate how Sweden reduced its environmental weight while maintaining economic growth. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2026
Series
International Studies in Entrepreneurship (ISEN), ISSN 1572-1922, E-ISSN 2197-5884 ; 49
Keywords
Decoupling, Environmental policy, Carbon emissions, Resource efficiency, Technological change, Economic growth, Sweden
National Category
Environmental Sciences Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-116729 (URN)10.1007/978-3-032-15512-2_14 (DOI)2-s2.0-105031005231 (Scopus ID)
Note

ISBN for host publication: 978-3-032-15511-5, 978-3-032-15514-6, 978-3-032-15512-2;

Full text license: CC BY-NC

Available from: 2026-03-12 Created: 2026-03-12 Last updated: 2026-03-12Bibliographically approved
Grafström, J. & Rydén, S. (2026). A transition probability analysis of material flows in the European aggregates industry. Construction Management and Economics, 44(3), 200-213
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A transition probability analysis of material flows in the European aggregates industry
2026 (English)In: Construction Management and Economics, ISSN 0144-6193, E-ISSN 1466-433X, Vol. 44, no 3, p. 200-213Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Recycled aggregates materials are often relegated to downcycled applications such as backfilling. Different barriers limit their reintegration into higher-value construction use. This paper develops a probabilistic model of material flows using a Markov chain framework to simulate transitions between four states: Input, Use/Waste, Recycling, and Disposal. The model draws on Eurostat data covering non-metallic minerals in 27 EU Member States (2014–2023) and incorporates barrier-adjusted transition probabilities reflecting economic, technological, institutional, and social constraints. Scenario simulations reveal that improvements in recycling probabilities can yield nonlinear gains in material retention. However, once structural barriers are introduced, system performance declines sharply—even under favourable technical assumptions. The results suggest that modest policy interventions may have outsized effects if targeted toward key transition points.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2026
Keywords
Circular economy, aggregates industry, material flow analysis, waste management, recycling, policy intervention
National Category
Environmental Engineering
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-116365 (URN)10.1080/01446193.2026.2616455 (DOI)001676448600001 ()2-s2.0-105029391431 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2022-00635
Note

Full text license: CC BY 4.0;

Available from: 2026-02-09 Created: 2026-02-09 Last updated: 2026-03-27
Grafström, J. & Karlson, N. (2026). Insider activism in the forest industry: An emerging phenomenon?. Forest Policy and Economics, 185, Article ID 103732.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Insider activism in the forest industry: An emerging phenomenon?
2026 (English)In: Forest Policy and Economics, ISSN 1389-9341, E-ISSN 1872-7050, Vol. 185, article id 103732Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Insider activism refers to situations where public officials use administrative discretion to advance personal or ideological preferences. Although the concept has received increasing attention in organizational and political science research, empirical evidence remains limited. This research note examines whether insider activism may influence regulatory practice in the Swedish forestry sector and how perceived enforcement uncertainty affects forest owners' behavior. A survey of forest owner representatives in southern Sweden indicates low trust in regulatory objectivity and weak perceptions of legal security. Many respondents report experiences of officials acting beyond their formal mandate. The findings suggest that perceived activism-driven uncertainty encourages defensive strategies among forest owners, including early harvesting and reduced willingness to report environmental values. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier B.V., 2026
Keywords
Insider activism, Bureaucratic influence, Bureaucratic drift, Legal uncertainty, Property rights, Sustainable development, Swedish Forest industry
National Category
Sociology (Excluding Social Work, Social Anthropology, Demography and Criminology) Forest Science
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-117160 (URN)10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103732 (DOI)001700700000001 ()2-s2.0-105034321277 (Scopus ID)
Funder
The Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry (KSLA)
Available from: 2026-04-15 Created: 2026-04-15 Last updated: 2026-04-15
Grafström, J. (2026). Time as a structural barrier for a circular economy. Journal of Industrial Ecology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Time as a structural barrier for a circular economy
2026 (English)In: Journal of Industrial Ecology, ISSN 1088-1980, E-ISSN 1530-9290Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Circular economy debates often acknowledge material lifespans and delays, but time is usually treated as a contextual issue rather than a structural barrier. The contribution is to reframe circular economy transitions as intertemporal processes by treating time as an endogenous structural barrier. A framework is developed that classifies goods into short-, medium-, and long-lived categories, demonstrating how lagged inflows and valuation biases suppress aggregate circularity even when technology improves. By making temporal mechanisms explicit, the analysis explains why indicators remain stagnant despite policy and efficiency gains. The contribution is to introduce time as an endogenous barrier, integrating insights from environmental and resource economics into circular economy theory and showing how delayed substitution shapes both firm investment and policy outcomes.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2026
Keywords
Circular economy, Material lifespans, Intertemporal dynamics, Structural barriers, Resource recovery
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-116455 (URN)10.1007/s44498-026-00032-0 (DOI)2-s2.0-105029467173 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2022–00635
Note

Full text license: CC BY 4.0;

Available from: 2026-02-16 Created: 2026-02-16 Last updated: 2026-02-16
Grafström, J. & Larsson, J. P. (2026). When circular systems scale. Journal of Industrial Ecology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>When circular systems scale
2026 (English)In: Journal of Industrial Ecology, ISSN 1088-1980, E-ISSN 1530-9290Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Circular economy systems are often designed with a focus on material flows and technological substitution, but their ecological performance is also shaped by geography. As a circular economy expands geographically, it encounters rising institutional diversity, logistical constraints, and behavioral divergence. This paper introduces a framework, based on lessons from the plastics industry, that models how spatial frictions—defined across regulatory, logistical, behavioral, economic, and coordination dimensions—accumulate with scale and undermine system performance. Costs escalate, and reliability deteriorates as circular systems become more spatially dispersed. These dynamics can result in delayed material recovery, inconsistent quality, and increased ecological inefficiency, even when technical feasibility exists. By placing geography at the center of analysis, the paper highlights the need for institutional harmonization, coordination buffers, and spatially adaptive system architectures to sustain circular transitions at scale. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2026
Keywords
Circular Economy, Geographical Factors, Spatial frictions, Sustainability, Industrial ecology, Resource Utilization, Economic Feasibility
National Category
Economics Business Administration
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-117084 (URN)10.1007/s44498-026-00013-3 (DOI)2-s2.0-105034128541 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2022–00635The Kamprad Family Foundation, P20220048
Note

Full text license: CC BY

Available from: 2026-04-14 Created: 2026-04-14 Last updated: 2026-04-14
Grafström, J., Poelzer, G. & Pettersson, J. (2025). Barriers to circularity in the metals industry: an analytical framework of feedback and lock-in effects. Mineral Economics, 39, 193-205
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Barriers to circularity in the metals industry: an analytical framework of feedback and lock-in effects
2025 (English)In: Mineral Economics, ISSN 2191-2203, E-ISSN 2191-2211, Vol. 39, p. 193-205Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The metals sector faces multiple and interconnected barriers to achieving circularity. This study examines steel, aluminum, and copper to illustrate how challenges vary between metals. While copper can often be recycled without quality loss, steel and aluminum face alloy-related limitations that drive downcycling and quality degradation. Using a matrix-based analytical framework, the study maps the interactions between economic, technological, institutional, and social constraints, distinguishing between primary drivers, secondary effects, feedback loops, and lock-in mechanisms. The results show strong reinforcing links between economic, technological, and institutional domains, with social factors playing a more indirect role. These findings align with observed industry patterns while adding a structured, quantitative perspective. By clarifying how different barriers combine and reinforce one another, the analysis identifies priority areas for intervention to advance metals recycling and support the transition toward a more circular economy. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2025
Keywords
Circular economy, Metals, Systemic barriers, Feedback loops, Institutional constraints, Policy strategy
National Category
Science and Technology Studies
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-114725 (URN)10.1007/s13563-025-00540-8 (DOI)001566697400001 ()2-s2.0-105015491258 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2022−00635
Note

Full text: CC BY license;

Available from: 2025-09-17 Created: 2025-09-17 Last updated: 2026-03-19
Grafström, J. (2025). Decoding the barriers for a circular plastics industry: An equation framework. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 54, 375-388
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decoding the barriers for a circular plastics industry: An equation framework
2025 (English)In: Sustainable Production and Consumption, ISSN 2352-5509, Vol. 54, p. 375-388Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Empirical research on barriers to a circular plastics economy has predominantly relied on case study approaches. While research has provided insights into the conceptual and anecdotal aspects of these barriers, a gap remains in the application of formalized methodologies to systematically understand and address them. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by developing an equation system tailored to the plastics industry, bringing clarity to the complex interplay of factors that constitute barriers to a circular economy. The study identifies four primary barriers to the circular economy, as documented in the literature between 2017 and 2024: economic, institutional and regulatory, technological, and social. The results include 24 equations, synthesized into four master equations. A mathematical case study demonstrates how numerical weights, and the relative importance of variables can differ between countries, offering a practical guide for applying the framework across diverse contexts. The study concludes that reducing regulatory ambiguity, scaling recycling infrastructure, and fostering consumer trust in recycled materials are critical steps. However, each country will face unique challenges, requiring policymakers to adopt tailored approaches and variable weighting.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier B.V., 2025
Keywords
Circular economy, Recycling, Modeling, Sustainability, Policy, Innovation
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Business Administration
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-111599 (URN)10.1016/j.spc.2025.01.010 (DOI)001420423300001 ()2-s2.0-85216277656 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, grant 2022-00635
Note

Validerad;2025;Nivå 2;2025-02-11 (u2);

Full text: CC BY license;

Available from: 2025-02-11 Created: 2025-02-11 Last updated: 2025-10-21Bibliographically approved
Grafström, J. & Alm, C. (2025). Diverging or converging technology capabilities in the European Union?. Journal of Technology Transfer, 50, 728-751
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Diverging or converging technology capabilities in the European Union?
2025 (English)In: Journal of Technology Transfer, ISSN 0892-9912, E-ISSN 1573-7047, Vol. 50, p. 728-751Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The ongoing debate among economists regarding the presence of economic convergence or divergence has been reignited. This paper aims to dissect the extent of technological divergence or convergence among European Union member states, evaluating the effectiveness of the EU's pronounced goals for convergence. Defining a countries technological level is not straightforward, this study examines six key indicators: (a) scientific journal publications, (b) total patents, (c) high tech exports, (d) Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, (e) government budget on R&D, and (f) human resources in science and technology as a share of the active population. Employing both time-series and longitudinal methodologies, the analysis spans from 2000 to 2019. The findings reveal a gradual catching-up trend in the inventive capabilities across the EU. This modest pace of convergence necessitates a critical reassessment by policymakers of the current EU convergence strategies to ensure they effectively foster technological parity among member states.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2025
Keywords
Convergence, Divergence, Technology, Development, Europe, Science, E61, O32, Q2, Q58
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-104548 (URN)10.1007/s10961-024-10070-0 (DOI)001173351200001 ()2-s2.0-105004049607 (Scopus ID)
Note

Godkänd;2025;Nivå 0;2025-06-27 (u5);

Full text license: CC BY

Available from: 2024-03-12 Created: 2024-03-12 Last updated: 2026-01-21Bibliographically approved
Grafström, J. (2025). Young Workers Want To Be in the Office: An Investigation Based on Swedish Survey Data. In: Anthony Larsson; Andreas Hatzigeorgiou (Ed.), The Future of Labour: How AI, Technological Disruption and Practice Will Change the Way We Work (pp. 119-135). Routledge
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Young Workers Want To Be in the Office: An Investigation Based on Swedish Survey Data
2025 (English)In: The Future of Labour: How AI, Technological Disruption and Practice Will Change the Way We Work / [ed] Anthony Larsson; Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, Routledge, 2025, p. 119-135Chapter in book (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of the chapter is to find out if the preference for working from home is different among different age cohorts, with a special interest in young workers attitudes. A survey involving 1,769 Swedish workers, among whom 1,000 were classified as office workers. In contrast to prevailing assumptions regarding the younger generation’s inclination towards remote work, our survey data from the Swedish labour market uncovers a surprising trend: it shows that young individuals exhibit a stronger preference for working in a physical office environment compared to their more senior counterparts. Overall, the results presented in the chapter underscore the rapid changes in working conditions, the need for updated knowledge, and the relevance of continuous labour market research. It provides valuable insights for both the public and policymakers, highlighting the importance of understanding diverse preferences and adapting to evolving work environments. The results underscore the necessity for customised employer policies that consider the diverse preferences within the workforce. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2025
National Category
Work Sciences Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-114741 (URN)10.4324/9781003391333-10 (DOI)2-s2.0-105015238496 (Scopus ID)
Note

ISBN for host publication: 978-1-032-48904-9, 978-1-032-48902-5, 978-1-003-39133-3;

Full text license: CC BY-NC-ND

Available from: 2025-09-18 Created: 2025-09-18 Last updated: 2025-10-21Bibliographically approved
Grafström, J., Söderholm, P., Gawel, E., Lehmann, P. & Strunz, S. (2023). Government support to renewable energy R&D: drivers and strategic interactions among EU Member States. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 32(1), 1-24
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Government support to renewable energy R&D: drivers and strategic interactions among EU Member States
Show others...
2023 (English)In: Economics of Innovation and New Technology, ISSN 1043-8599, E-ISSN 1476-8364, Vol. 32, no 1, p. 1-24Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Although the climate challenge requires proactive policies that spur innovation in the renewable energy sector, various countries commit vastly different levels of support for renewable energy R&D. This paper addresses the question why this may be the case. Specifically, the objective is to analyse the determinants of government support to renewable energy R&D in the European Union (EU), and, in doing this, we devote particular attention to the question of whether the level of this support tends to converge or diverge across EU Member States. The investigation relies on a data set of 12 EU Member States and a bias-corrected dynamic panel data estimator. We test for the presence of conditional β-convergence, and the impacts of energy dependence and electricity regulation on government R&D efforts. The findings display divergence in terms of government support to renewable energy R&D, and this result is robust across various model specifications and key assumptions. The analysis also indicates that countries with a low energy-import dependence and deregulated electricity markets tend to experience lower growth rates in government renewable energy R&D. The paper ends by discussing some implications of the results, primarily from an EU perspective.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2023
Keywords
Renewable energy, government R&D, convergence, divergence, European Union
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-82179 (URN)10.1080/10438599.2020.1857499 (DOI)000601338900001 ()2-s2.0-85097995898 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 254-2013-100
Note

Validerad;2023;Nivå 2;2023-04-20 (joosat);

Finansiär: Helmholtz Association (HA-303)

Licens fulltext: CC BY-NC-ND License

Available from: 2021-01-07 Created: 2021-01-07 Last updated: 2025-10-22Bibliographically approved
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Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-5952-6379

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