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Fusing physics-based and deep learning models for prognostics
Chair of Intelligent Maintenance Systems, ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
KBR, Inc., NASA Ames Research Center, USA.
Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för samhällsbyggnad och naturresurser, Drift, underhåll och akustik.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-0240-0943
Chair of Intelligent Maintenance Systems, ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
2022 (Engelska)Ingår i: Reliability Engineering & System Safety, ISSN 0951-8320, E-ISSN 1879-0836, Vol. 217, artikel-id 107961Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Physics-based and data-driven models for remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction typically suffer from two major challenges that limit their applicability to complex real-world domains: (1) the incompleteness of physics-based models and (2) the limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. Combining the advantages of these two approaches while overcoming some of their limitations, we propose a novel hybrid framework for fusing the information from physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In the proposed framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to a system’s components health by solving a calibration problem. These parameters are subsequently combined with sensor readings and used as input to a deep neural network, thereby generating a data-driven prognostics model with physics-augmented features. The performance of the hybrid framework is evaluated on an extensive case study comprising run-to-failure degradation trajectories from a fleet of nine turbofan engines under real flight conditions. The experimental results show that the hybrid framework outperforms purely data-driven approaches by extending the prediction horizon by nearly 127%. Furthermore, it requires less training data and is less sensitive to the limited representativeness of the dataset as compared to purely data-driven approaches. Furthermore, we demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed framework on the original CMAPSS dataset, thereby confirming its superior performance.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Elsevier, 2022. Vol. 217, artikel-id 107961
Nyckelord [en]
Prognostics, Deep learning, Hybrid model, CMAPSS
Nationell ämneskategori
Tillförlitlighets- och kvalitetsteknik
Forskningsämne
Drift och underhållsteknik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-87121DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107961ISI: 000702360100002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85115029961OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-87121DiVA, id: diva2:1595485
Anmärkning

Validerad;2021;Nivå 2;2021-09-20 (alebob);

Forskningsfinansiär: Swiss National Science Foundation (PP00P2 176878)

Tillgänglig från: 2021-09-20 Skapad: 2021-09-20 Senast uppdaterad: 2025-10-21Bibliografiskt granskad

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Goebel, Kai

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