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Remaining service life estimation of existing concrete bridges through probabilistic and reliability analyses
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Structural and Fire Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9493-9550
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis aims to assess the remaining useful life of two representative bridge types in Sweden by combining full-scale experimental tests, Finite Element Analysis (FEA), and time-dependent reliability analysis. The combination of these methods seeks to enhance solution accuracy and reduce uncertainties. As the bridge population approaches its intended design life, concerns regarding their current condition start to rise. Recent bridge failures are proof of the need for experts to increase their efforts to accurately assess existing bridges' remaining useful life. However, structural remaining lifetime prediction is a challenging task given the complexity of structural behavior and the various environmental threats the structure faces. Additionally, inherent uncertainties are part of any engineering problem, making an exact solution difficult to achieve. Therefore, introducing probabilistic-based concepts to determine the structure capacity helps account for those uncertainties typically addressed in structural reliability analysis. Time-dependent reliability analysis offers a tool to assess the remaining useful life of a structure, expressed in terms of its time to failure. 

The first case study corresponds to a road existing bridge in north Sweden that has been already demolished. The structure is a prestressed box-girder concrete bridge, and it was 66 years old at the time of experimental data collection. The second case is a reinforced concrete (RC) trough railway bridge, which is a representative bridge type in Sweden. The trough bridge was cast at LTU in 2021 as a replica of the design of a decommissioned trough bridge from the Iron Ore Line. The experiments performed in both case studies are used for two main purposes: the calibration of the Finite Element (FE) models and the update of the probability distributions of the parameters involved in the time-dependent reliability analysis. This will help a better FE model to represent structural behavior and more accurate probabilistic models. Different sensors were implemented during the experimental data collection, such as fiber optic sensors (FOS), traditional strain gauges, and linear variable differential transformers (LVDTs).

Given that the communication between FE and reliability analyses can be computational overwhelming, this thesis proposes an improved metamodel-based reliability algorithm which integrates the advantages of kriging, learning, and copula functions. The proposed algorithm aims to reduce the number of performance function evaluations, so the number of model runs is feasible when using FEA. 

The results of this research provide a practical understanding of the stochastic process for resistance deterioration in both cases.  This includes degradation due to prestressing losses for the Kalix bridge and fatigue for the trough bridge. By considering the stochastic process over the years and the random nature of the loads over time, we were able to calculate the remaining useful life for the cases of no experimental information and updated using experimental data. These findings have direct implications for the maintenance and management of similar structures, providing valuable insights for the field of civil engineering and structural reliability analysis. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Luleå University of Technology, 2025.
Series
Doctoral thesis / Luleå University of Technology 1 jan 1997 → …, ISSN 1402-1544
Keywords [en]
Existing bridges, reliability, remaining useful life, metamodel, Finite Element Modeling, full-scale tests
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Research subject
Structural Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-115519ISBN: 978-91-8048-951-5 (print)ISBN: 978-91-8048-952-2 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-115519DiVA, id: diva2:2016004
Public defence
2026-02-12, A117, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, 2024–011Svenska Byggbranschens Utvecklingsfond (SBUF), 14354Available from: 2025-11-24 Created: 2025-11-24 Last updated: 2026-01-22Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Comparison and Joint Evaluation of Importance, Redundancy and Robustness Indicators Applied to Aging Prestressed Concrete Bridges
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Comparison and Joint Evaluation of Importance, Redundancy and Robustness Indicators Applied to Aging Prestressed Concrete Bridges
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2024 (English)In: Nordic Concrete Research, ISSN 0800-6377, Vol. 70, no 1, p. 147-171, article id 8Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A bridge failure can result in significant social, economic, and environmental problems; therefore, its reliability and risk management are essential. Bridges’ system reliability and risks are governed mainly by their redundancy and robustness, which currently are not adequately included in most design code specifications. Thus, in this study, a comprehensive comparison between relevant importance, redundancy, and robustness indicators found in the literature with different levels of complexity is carried out. The indicators under analysis have been used separately in different studies but have never been addressed together. Therefore, this study presents a joint evaluation of deterministic, reliability- and risk-based indicators to evaluate the differences in interpretation and information provided by the indicators. The approach is exemplified by analyzing a prestressed concrete bridge subjected to continuous degradation due to chloride ingress. A procedure is implemented to couple a metamodel-based reliability approach with a Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (NLFEA). Based on the analysis performed, the comparison between indicators showed how different interpretations can be obtained depending on the implemented approach. Thus, creating more uniform formulations and agreeing on target values is necessary to help with redundancy and robustness interpretation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Nordic Concrete Federation, 2024
Keywords
Importance, redundancy, robustness, prestressed concrete bridge, structural reliability, risk, corrosion
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Research subject
Structural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-96314 (URN)10.2478/ncr-2024-0008 (DOI)001263243400003 ()
Funder
Svenska Byggbranschens Utvecklingsfond (SBUF)
Note

Validerad;2024;Nivå 1;2024-08-14 (signyg);

Fulltext license: CC BY-NC ND

Available from: 2023-04-05 Created: 2023-04-05 Last updated: 2025-11-24Bibliographically approved
2. An Improved Metamodel-Based Algorithm Using Copula Theory for Assessing Reliability Analysis of Structures using FEM
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An Improved Metamodel-Based Algorithm Using Copula Theory for Assessing Reliability Analysis of Structures using FEM
2025 (English)In: Structural Engineering International, ISSN 1016-8664, E-ISSN 1683-0350Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Reliability analysis is crucial for evaluating structural performance, and advancements in computational technologies have enhanced the application of Finite Element Modeling (FEM) in this field. However, existing reliability methods face challenges, particularly with approximation methods that struggle with implicit limit state functions and simulation methods with cost. Metamodel-based approaches have gained popularity for their balance of efficiency and accuracy, yet most algorithms focus on independent variables. This paper presents an improved metamodel-based algorithm designed to assess structural reliability while considering variable dependency and FEM. The algorithm provides a methodology that ensures a rapid convergence of the iterative process when building the metamodel in the region of interest, i.e. where the Most Probable Point (MPP) is located. It uses a modified Design of Experiments (DoE) and integrates copula theory to model the joint probability distribution function (PDF). The algorithm enriches the experimental points matrix by finding points close to the Limit State Function (LSF) at 0 with high prediction variance using learning functions and with high joint PDF values using copula theory. Validation through various examples and an application example of a reinforced concrete bridge indicates that the proposed methodology is more efficient than most recent algorithms without reducing accuracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2025
Keywords
reliability, structures, metamodel, kriging, copula, finite element modeling
National Category
Structural Engineering Building materials
Research subject
Structural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-114331 (URN)10.1080/10168664.2025.2517059 (DOI)001544553600001 ()2-s2.0-105012557915 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Svenska Byggbranschens Utvecklingsfond (SBUF), 13934Svenska Byggbranschens Utvecklingsfond (SBUF), 14354
Note

Fulltext license: CC BY

Available from: 2025-08-19 Created: 2025-08-19 Last updated: 2025-11-24
3. Time-dependent reliability of a prestressed concrete bridge incorporating residual prestress and material properties updates for service limit state assessment
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Time-dependent reliability of a prestressed concrete bridge incorporating residual prestress and material properties updates for service limit state assessment
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2025 (English)In: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, ISSN 1573-2479, E-ISSN 1744-8980Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a time-dependent reliability assessment that integrates experimental data with Bayesian updates and is applied to a 66-year-old prestressed concrete box-girder bridge. Non-destructive and destructive tests were performed to evaluate its actual serviceability condition. The tests included on-site prestress measurements, material evaluations, a serviceability-proof load test, and refining structural response and boundary conditions using monitoring system data. These tests offered crucial updates to assumptions based on the as-built drawings. The bridge’s structural reliability for serviceability is studied by comparing two approaches: (1) a prior reliability analysis based on traditional Eurocode methods to estimate prestress losses; and (2) a posterior reliability analysis incorporating on-site measurement for residual prestress and material properties. A Bayesian update was performed to refine the estimates of concrete strength and prestress losses and improve the accuracy of the reliability assessment. The results showed that updating material properties doubled the reliability index relative to the initial analysis. Similarly, updating residual prestress measurements via strand cutting and saw cut methods increased the reliability index from 1.75 to 2.84 and 2.35, respectively. These findings highlight the need for on-site prestress measurements and time-dependent reliability analyses to accurately assess the serviceability performance of ageing bridges accounting for long-term degradation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2025
Keywords
Bayesian updating, non-destructive test, prestressed concrete bridges, residual prestress, time-dependent reliability, long-term serviceability assessment
National Category
Building Technologies
Research subject
Structural Engineering; Operation and Maintenance Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-115460 (URN)10.1080/15732479.2025.2571887 (DOI)001597634500001 ()2-s2.0-105019562033 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Interreg AuroraSvenska Byggbranschens Utvecklingsfond (SBUF)Swedish Transport Administration
Note

Full text license: CC BY 4.0;

Available from: 2025-11-21 Created: 2025-11-21 Last updated: 2025-12-04
4. Experimental and reliability analyses for fatigue-induced damage in reinforced concrete trough bridges
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Experimental and reliability analyses for fatigue-induced damage in reinforced concrete trough bridges
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2025 (English)In: Case Studies in Construction Materials, ISSN 2214-5095, Vol. 23, article id e05319Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Reinforced concrete (RC) trough bridges form a crucial part of Europe's railway infrastructure. These structures consist of a U-shaped cross-section (two longitudinal beams and a slab) designed to accommodate the ballast. For the case of the Iron Ore Line, a critical corridor located in the north of the country, RC trough bridges represent about 40 % of the railway bridge population. Many of these bridges have surpassed 50 years of service, enduring over 10 million cycles of fatigue loading, with increases of axle loads since their construction due to demands associated with the iron ore extraction and transportation. As these structures approach critical maintenance or replacement decisions, understanding their long-term performance and remaining capacity is essential. This study experimentally investigates the degradation behavior of a full-scale RC trough bridge subjected to progressive cyclic loading, simulating fatigue effects over time. During the controlled laboratory tests, the overall performance of the bridge is assessed, focusing on the stiffness loss of slab and beams, cracking, and force redistribution. Fatigue verifications based on Eurocode EN1992–1–1 and fib Model Code 2020 are performed alongside the reliability analysis using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) to evaluate structural safety levels. While fatigue damage is evident in the slab's tensile zone, the overall structural response indicates that the bridge maintains its functional capacity after simulating 48 years of service. However, the code-based reliability analysis indicates lower-than-target reliability levels for reinforcement, suggesting a conservative estimation of reinforcement capacity to withstand cyclic loading.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025
Keywords
Reinforced concrete bridges, Trough bridges, Fatigue, Full-scale test, Code verification, Reliability analysis
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering Reliability and Maintenance
Research subject
Structural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-115117 (URN)10.1016/j.cscm.2025.e05319 (DOI)001580851700002 ()2-s2.0-105017844227 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, 2024–011Svenska Byggbranschens Utvecklingsfond (SBUF), 14354
Note

Validerad;2025;Nivå 2;2025-11-27 (u5);

Full text license: CC BY

Available from: 2025-10-14 Created: 2025-10-14 Last updated: 2025-11-27Bibliographically approved
5. Multi-Level Fatigue Reliability Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Railway Bridges
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Multi-Level Fatigue Reliability Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Railway Bridges
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2025 (English)In: Structural Concrete, ISSN 1464-4177, E-ISSN 1751-7648Article in journal, Editorial material (Other academic) Submitted
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a multi-level reliability framework for assessing the fatigue life of reinforced concrete (RC) railway trough bridges subjected to cyclic loading. The framework incorporates increasing levels of analytical complexity and real-world data in four steps. First, an analytical model applies S–N curves and the Palmgren–Miner rule with constant stress assumptions. Second, monitored strain data refine stress estimates. Third, a calibrated finite element (FE) model is used to simulate degradation and structural response. Fourth, survival information conditions the reliability on observed performance. The framework is applied to a RC trough bridge tested under representative railway loading using traffic data from Sweden’s Iron Ore Line. Results demonstrate the value of combining monitoring, FE modelling, and probabilistic methods for evaluating remaining service life (RSL). From step 1 to step 3, the methodology extended the RSL estimates by 39 years, allowing an increase in mean axle load by approximately 20%. 

Keywords
railway bridges, fatigue, reliability, reinforced concrete, allowable load
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-115517 (URN)
Funder
Svenska Byggbranschens Utvecklingsfond (SBUF), 14354Swedish Transport Administration, 2024-011
Available from: 2025-11-24 Created: 2025-11-24 Last updated: 2025-12-01

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Citation style
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  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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