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Reliability-based assessment of concrete dams considering combined sliding and overturning
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Structural and Fire Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8362-297X
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis aims to improve the assessment of dam safety through the formalization of an identified failure mode that combines the sliding and overturning failure mechanisms. The failure mode is relevant to dams with geometrical variations and large-scale asperities in the rock-concrete interface and represents the behavior observed in finite element analyses (FEA) and scale model tests. 

Dams are vital infrastructure, providing services such as water storage for hydropower and irrigation, flood control, and containment of industrial byproducts. However, storing large volumes of water carries the risk of potentially catastrophic consequences in the event of failure, making safety assessments essential throughout a dam’s service life. Regulatory rules and guidelines prescribe methods for performing such dam safety assessments, in which a dam’s safety against global failure modes such as sliding and overturning is commonly evaluated. However, these failure modes rely on assumptions that may not be consistent with the actual behavior of dams when large-scale asperities are present along the rock-concrete interface, which may cause the dam to exhibit a failure mode that combines both sliding and overturning. Furthermore, these regulatory rules and guidelines typically employ deterministic assessment approaches, providing general safety factors that must be calibrated for specific cases to achieve the desired level of safety. Given that dams are unique structures with inherent uncertainties, this approach is unlikely to produce consistent safety levels.

The failure mode presented in this thesis, referred to as combined sliding and overturning (CSO), addresses the limitations of the traditional failure modes and reflects the failure behavior observed in concrete dams with large-scale asperities along the rock-concrete interface. Having been identified in FEA of concrete buttress dams, the failure mode was formalized and an analytical formulation was developed, providing results almost identical to those of FEA. The assumptions behind the failure mode and analytical formulation were compared with twelve scale model tests on concrete buttress dams, which included a monitoring system to validate these assumptions. The tests confirmed the assumptions and also evaluated the influence of factors such as rock bolts, reinforcement, and rock joints on load capacity and behavior, which primarily affected the load capacity. 

By relying solely on equilibrium equations, like traditional failure modes, the analytical formulation provides a simple alternative to methods such as FEA and can be readily applied with reliability analysis to assess a dam’s safety while accounting for its unique uncertainties. This is exemplified by a study on the reliability and sensitivity analysis of concrete buttress dams, in which a population of buttress dam monoliths, varying in height, width, and other characteristics, is generated and assessed for sliding, overturning, and CSO under two load cases, involving either overtopping or ice load. As such, influential factors for a dam’s reliability, including the basic friction angle, the dilation angle, the monolith height, and the inclinations of the front plate and the large-scale asperities, were identified. By introducing original methods to assess a dam’s load capacity while highlighting which factors impact the reliability of concrete dams, this thesis contributes to improved concrete dam safety assessment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Luleå: Luleå University of Technology, 2025.
Series
Doctoral thesis / Luleå University of Technology 1 jan 1997 → …, ISSN 1402-1544
Keywords [en]
Concrete dams, reliability analysis, sensitivity analysis, metamodeling, scale model testing, combined sliding and overturning
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Research subject
Structural Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-115546ISBN: 978-91-8048-953-9 (print)ISBN: 978-91-8048-954-6 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-115546DiVA, id: diva2:2016227
Public defence
2026-02-10, A117, Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, 09:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-11-25 Created: 2025-11-25 Last updated: 2026-01-20Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Probabilistic finite element analysis of failures in concrete dams with large asperities in the rock–concrete interface
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Probabilistic finite element analysis of failures in concrete dams with large asperities in the rock–concrete interface
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2023 (English)In: Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, E-ISSN 1644-9665, Vol. 23, no 2, article id 109Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Common analytical assessment methods for concrete dams are unlikely to predict material fracture in the dam body because of the assumption of rigid body behavior and uniform- or linear stress distribution along a predetermined failure surface. Hence, probabilistic non-linear finite element analysis, calibrated from scale model tests, was implemented in this study to investigate the impact of concrete material parameters (modulus of elasticity, tensile strength, compressive strength, fracture energy) on the ultimate capacity of scaled model dams. The investigated dam section has two types of large asperities, located near the downstream and/or upstream end of the rock–concrete interface. These large-scale asperities significantly increased the interface roughness. Post-processing of the numerical simulations showed interlocking between the buttress and the downstream asperity leading to fracture of the buttress with the capacity being determined mainly by the tensile strength of the buttress material. The capacity of a model with an asperity near the upstream side, with lower inclination, was less dependent on the material parameters of the buttress as failure occurred by sliding along the interface, even with inferior material parameters. Results of this study show that material parameters of the concrete in a dam body can govern the load capacity of the dam granted that significant geometrical variations in the rock–concrete interface exists. The material parameters of the dam body and their impact on the capacity with respect to the failure mechanism that developed for some of the studied models are not commonly considered to be decisive for the load capacity. Also, no analytical assessment method for this type of failure exists. This implies that common assessment methods may misjudge the capacity and important parameters for certain failure types that may develop in dams.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2023
Keywords
Concrete dams, Model test, Numerical analysis, Material randomization, Probabilistic fnite element modeling, Dam failure
National Category
Civil Engineering
Research subject
Structural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-96626 (URN)10.1007/s43452-023-00652-4 (DOI)000966005100001 ()2-s2.0-85153065690 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2019-01236The Research Council of Norway, 244029Energy Research, VKU14169
Note

Validerad;2023;Nivå 2;2023-05-03 (hanlid);

Funder: Swedish Hydropower Center (SVC)

Available from: 2023-04-17 Created: 2023-04-17 Last updated: 2025-12-08Bibliographically approved
2. Numerical parametric study on the influence of location and inclination of large-scale asperities on the shear strength of concrete-rock interfaces of small buttress dams
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Numerical parametric study on the influence of location and inclination of large-scale asperities on the shear strength of concrete-rock interfaces of small buttress dams
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2024 (English)In: Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ISSN 1674-7755, Vol. 16, no 10, p. 4319-4329Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

When assessing the sliding stability of a concrete dam, the influence of large-scale asperities in the sliding plane is often ignored due to limitations of the analytical rigid body assessment methods provided by current dam assessment guidelines. However, these asperities can potentially improve the load capacity of a concrete dam in terms of sliding stability. Although their influence in a sliding plane has been thoroughly studied for direct shear, their influence under eccentric loading, as in the case of dams, is unknown. This paper presents the results of a parametric study that used finite element analysis (FEA) to investigate the influence of large-scale asperities on the load capacity of small buttress dams. By varying the inclination and location of an asperity located in the concrete-rock interface along with the strength of the rock foundation material, transitions between different failure modes and correlations between the load capacity and the varied parameters were observed. The results indicated that the inclination of the asperity had a significant impact on the failure mode. When the inclination was 30° and greater, interlocking occurred between the dam and foundation and the governing failure modes were either rupture of the dam body or asperity. When the asperity inclination was significant enough to provide interlocking, the load capacity of the dam was impacted by the strength of the rock in the foundation through influencing the load capacity of the asperity. The location of the asperity along the concrete-rock interface did not affect the failure mode, except for when the asperity was located at the toe of the dam, but had an influence on the load capacity when the failure occurred by rupture of the buttress or by sliding. By accounting for a single large-scale asperity in the concrete-rock interface of the analysed dam, a horizontal load capacity increase of 30%–160% was obtained, depending on the inclination and location of the asperity and the strength of the foundation material.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024
Keywords
Asperity inclination, Asperity location, Buttress dam, Concrete dam, Concrete-rock interface, Shear strength, Sliding
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Research subject
Structural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-106124 (URN)10.1016/j.jrmge.2023.12.036 (DOI)001336509600001 ()2-s2.0-85194185166 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2019-01236
Note

Validerad;2024;Nivå 2;2024-11-11 (joosat);

Funder: Research Council of Norway (244029, 2019-01236); SVC (VKU32019);

Full text license: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0;

Available from: 2024-06-10 Created: 2024-06-10 Last updated: 2025-12-08Bibliographically approved
3. Analytical Assessment of Combined Sliding and Overturning Failure in Concrete Dams
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analytical Assessment of Combined Sliding and Overturning Failure in Concrete Dams
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2025 (English)In: Structural Engineering International, ISSN 1016-8664, E-ISSN 1683-0350Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Load capacity assessment of concrete dams often includes verification of the stability for multiple separate failure modes, such as sliding and overturning. However, in the case of dams, the underlying failure mechanism for these failure modes may be too idealized, and the analysis could yield inaccurate results. Previous research has, for example, shown that regular rigid-body sliding failure analysis provides inaccurate load capacity estimates for dams with uneven interface geometries. This article discusses the behavior of such dams and presents a failure mode that combines the traditional sliding and overturning failures. The failure mode is termed combined sliding and overturning and serves as an intermediate to the traditional failure modes. It allows for the assessment of concrete dams with uneven interface geometries, whose behavior is not expected to be fully represented by only sliding or overturning. To estimate the load capacity for the presented failure mode, an analytical formulation based on simple force and moment equilibrium is provided. The formulation is compared with finite element simulations and previously reported results from experimental scale model tests and is shown to accurately predict the load capacity.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2025
Keywords
Concrete dams, sliding failure, overturning failure, finite element analysis, analytical formulation
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Research subject
Structural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-115123 (URN)10.1080/10168664.2025.2555918 (DOI)001585693100001 ()2-s2.0-105018031831 (Scopus ID)
Note

Full text license: CC BY

Available from: 2025-10-14 Created: 2025-10-14 Last updated: 2025-11-25
4. Behavior and failure mechanism of scale model buttress dams with large-scale asperities in the rock-concrete interface
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Behavior and failure mechanism of scale model buttress dams with large-scale asperities in the rock-concrete interface
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Water Engineering
Research subject
Structural Engineering; Design
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-115529 (URN)
Available from: 2025-11-24 Created: 2025-11-24 Last updated: 2025-11-25
5. Sensitivity and reliability analysis of concrete buttress dams
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sensitivity and reliability analysis of concrete buttress dams
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
National Category
Civil Engineering
Research subject
Structural Engineering; Design
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-115532 (URN)
Available from: 2025-11-24 Created: 2025-11-24 Last updated: 2025-11-28

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