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Rethinking RUL Prediction: Uncertainty, Robustness, Interpretability, and Feasibility Matter
Intelligent System Prognostics Group, Aerospace Structures and Materials Department, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, Delft, 2629HS, the Netherlands.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics. Fragum Global, Mountain View, CA 94040, USA .ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0240-0943
Intelligent System Prognostics Group, Aerospace Structures and Materials Department, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, Delft, 2629HS, the Netherlands.
2025 (English)In: Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the PHM Society 2025 / [ed] C. S. Kulkarni; M. E. Orchard, Prognostics and Health Management Society , 2025Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) plays a key role in predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of systems, which is essential for enabling decision-making for Predictive Maintenance (PdM) and operations. While most research has traditionally focused on improving the accuracy of RUL predictions, this paper argues that four essential characteristics, uncertainty, robustness, interpretability, and feasibility, are key for real-world PHM applications. This study explores these characteristics through a comparative analysis of two data-driven models (DDMs): the probabilistic Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) model and the Adaptive Hidden Semi-Markov Model (AHSMM). Deep Learning (DL) models such as the BiLSTM often achieve high prediction accuracy but struggle with uncertainty quantification and adaptability across varying operating conditions. In contrast, stochastic models like AHSMM offer stronger robustness and feasibility, performing well even with limited or noisy data. Using the C-MAPSS dataset, the models are evaluated through the lens of the four proposed characteristics. This more holistic approach clarifies each model’s strengths, limitations, and practical trade-offs in PHM settings. The findings highlight that while accuracy remains important, focusing solely on it can overlook critical factors that affect model performance in real operational environments. Balancing all four characteristics is essential for deploying reliable and effective decision-making for predictive maintenance and operations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Prognostics and Health Management Society , 2025.
Series
Annual Conference of the PHM Society, E-ISSN 2325-0178 ; 17:1
National Category
Bioinformatics (Computational Biology)
Research subject
Operation and Maintenance Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-116227DOI: 10.36001/phmconf.2025.v17i1.4361Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105021997161OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-116227DiVA, id: diva2:2033355
Conference
17th Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) Society, Bellevue, WA, USA, October 27-30, 2025
Note

Full text license: CC BY 3.0; 

Available from: 2026-01-29 Created: 2026-01-29 Last updated: 2026-05-20Bibliographically approved

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Goebel, Kai

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