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Data-driven risk assessment of climate-related failures in railway infrastructure
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0099-7034
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7272-0352
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8111-6918
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics. Swedish Transport Administration, Luleå, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9843-5819
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2026 (English)In: Sustainable cities and society, ISSN 2210-6707, Vol. 146, article id 107519Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate-related failures pose increasing risks to railway operation and maintenance, requiring robust assessments to support effective resilience planning. Accordingly, this study presents a comprehensive risk assessment to identify, quantify, and prioritize climate-related failure modes (CRFMs). CRFMs were identified through text mining of 15-year corrective maintenance records across all five Swedish railway regions. A probabilistic model was then developed to analyze the risk of identified CRFMs, considering both operational and maintenance costs. Risk distributions were derived using Monte Carlo simulation and summarized by Expected Value of Risk (EVoR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR0.90). As a result, 14 CRFMs were identified, accounting for 47% of all failure records. Their annual trend and seasonal distribution align well with periods of increased extreme weather events and dominant seasonal climate hazards. Furthermore, clustering the regional profile of CRFMs reveals regional similarity. The CRFMs were then prioritized, showing that 4 modes (i.e., Track deformation, Snow and ice, Buckling, and Rail breakage/crack) account for 73% of total CVaR0.90. The amplification of total risk in the tail indicates a 74% higher cost burden under extreme conditions. Finally, regional climate vulnerability was assessed using risk metrics normalized by track length and traffic density.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd , 2026. Vol. 146, article id 107519
Keywords [en]
Resilient transportation, Climate adaptation, Probabilistic modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, Unsupervised clustering, Decision support tools
National Category
Other Civil Engineering Environmental Sciences Infrastructure Engineering
Research subject
Operation and Maintenance Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-118697DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2026.107519ISI: 001780741800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105041300671OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-118697DiVA, id: diva2:2079570
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2022–00835
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Fulltext license: CC BY

Available from: 2026-06-25 Created: 2026-06-25 Last updated: 2026-06-25Bibliographically approved

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Haghighi, EhsanKasraei, AhmadKumar, UdayFamurewa, StephenGarmabaki, A.H.S

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3536373839404138 of 91
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