Robust Multi-Step Predictor for Electricity Markets with Real-Time PricingShow others and affiliations
2021 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 14, no 14, article id 4378
Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Real-time electricity pricing mechanisms are emerging as a key component of the smart grid. However, prior work has not fully addressed the challenges of multi-step prediction (Predicting multiple time steps into the future) that is accurate, robust and real-time. This paper proposes a novel Artificial Intelligence-based approach, Robust Intelligent Price Prediction in Real-time (RIPPR), that overcomes these challenges. RIPPR utilizes Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to transform the spot price data stream into sub-series that are optimized for robustness using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. These sub-series are inputted to a Random Vector Functional Link neural network algorithm for real-time multi-step prediction. A mirror extension removal of VMD, including continuous and discrete spaces in the PSO, is a further novel contribution that improves the effectiveness of RIPPR. The superiority of the proposed RIPPR is demonstrated using three empirical studies of multi-step price prediction of the Australian electricity market.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2021. Vol. 14, no 14, article id 4378
Keywords [en]
demand response, real-time pricing, prosumers, electricity price forecasting, particle swarm optimization
National Category
Communication Systems
Research subject
Dependable Communication and Computation Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-86531DOI: 10.3390/en14144378ISI: 000676668500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85111419346OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-86531DiVA, id: diva2:1583453
Note
Validerad;2021;Nivå 2;2021-08-06 (beamah)
2021-08-062021-08-062025-10-21Bibliographically approved